Hong Kong 01 Author: Tang Xiaodong
In late June this year, the battle of the Galwan River Valley was gradually forgotten by the mainstream Indian media.This is not to say that this battle that caused 20 Indian army to die is not important: to this day, some parts of India still emerge from time to time to mourn the martyr's commemorative activities.But in general, under the continuous new crown epidemic, and the five states of the North India have even entered the locust accident in the capital New Delhi, the storm of the Galwan Valley can hardly set off any storms.
For media people in Beijing and New Delhi, China -India conflict is always the favorite label. Slightly compile some cutting -edge drafts, which can stimulate the eagle or revenge emotions of the people in the country.On social networking sites, as long as any short videos are added to the Chinese and Indian battlefields, regardless of authenticity, it can win explosive clicks for uploaders.This means that although the focus of the mainstream media has been changed for a long time, the echo of the war of the La Wan Valley has continued.
Facing the response of the domestic war in India, the PLA proved its control with wolf tooth rods, drone monitoring and heavy artillery positions in confrontation, but China did not want to see the war upgrade after all.In a sense, the upgrade of the situation will prove that Beijing's projection power in South Asia is low. Even if the PLA may be able to win the tactical victory in the SHIMLA (SHIMLA) promotion of the Himalayas in northern India, this tactical victoryStill means strategic failure.
Fortunately, the result of one or two battles has a limited impact on the general trend between China and India.The close connection between politics and economy between Beijing and New Delhi will still shift the situation to control and smooth.
Anti -China trend has not stopped
For India, resisting China has almost become a fashionable and noble limelight in a short time.On June 21, Aligarh in North India had 10 students who thought the martyrs had revenge and learned a lesson to China, all the way north, and was persuaded by police officers on the highway.
Coincidentally, last Sunday (June 28), the Zomato company answered by Kolkata also encountered patriotic storms.Because this company, known as the Indian version of the public review, has received the financing of China Ant Financial Company. After the Battle of the Galwan Valley, the company has more than a dozen takeaway food delivery officers announced his resignation and shouted in the company's door.People are using our money to kill our soldiers and other slogans, calling on Kolka to answer people not to use the company's services.At present, about dozens of people have responded.
It must be acknowledged that after the conflict on June 15, the economic environment between China and India did have a little impact.Looking around India, the outside world can find that some Indian people may discard Chinese TVs downstairs or burn in front of their own stores.Some senior Indian officials also took the lead in calling close to all Chinese restaurants in India and selling Chinese foods and hotels.However, this may be a bit different from the economic strikes that Indian folks encouraged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to launch, and more than 500 Chinese -made products appealed by the Indian Trade Union (CAIT).
In fact, by late June, the largest economic and trade storm between China and India may still be at the level of customs clearance.The conflict below this countertop has brought uneasiness to related industries in India.
The actual consideration behind patriotism
According to the disclosure of foreign trade between China and India, starting from June 18, starting from Mumbai, Qin Nai and other places, India ’s largest ports and airports have appeared in the situation of Chinese goods clearance.For example, in Qin Nai, the local customs interrupted customs clearance of Chinese goods, and the customs clearance goods at the scene were also 100 % unpacking.By the 26th, this measure spread to Mumbai: The entry declaration form of all Chinese goods in Mumbai Port was locked.From the end of June, India officials have not given clear statements.The customs authorities only told the importers that the customs clearance of Chinese goods will be delayed, but no reason is given.The Indian Central Taxation Department also said that it has not issued instructions to restrict Chinese goods.
Of course, most of the experts between China and India knew that the storm of this cargo clearance was somewhat related to the border conflict on June 15.However, in the face of the sudden and unknown customs clearance interruption, the first one who was hit by the first hit was India's local manufacturing industry.For example, Mukesh Ambani, the richest man in India, has been deducted from multiple containers ordered from China.
As Qin Nai is an important hub of India's imported telecommunications parts, medical equipment and automotive parts, this has made the experience of JIO a microcosm of Indian technology companies without rice.By late June, the Indian Export Organization Federation (FIEO), the Indian Industry and Commerce Federation (FICCI), the information technology manufacturer association (MAIT) representing IT hardware manufacturers, and the Indian Honeycomb and Electronics Association (ICEA) of the mobile phone industry lobbying institutions, etc.I have jointly wrote a letter to the Indian Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance, asking for a complete review of Chinese goods immediately.
Obviously, although India's retail industry will ask for resisting China, the media today ’s India and India Times and other media have also pointed out correctly that if New Delhi resist China, the cost is unimaginable.
At present, India's dependence on China is still too high in the supply of raw materials and finished products: about 45%of India's electronic products, 90%of mobile phone parts, 65%to 70%of patent patent intermediates, one -third of the machinery and machinery and machineryNearly five -fifths of organic chemicals were imported from China.Although India can exclude China in the fields of highway construction and railway construction, this will bring a certain price and may endanger India's economic growth.In addition, various states of India may not unite and suddenly resist Chinese products and investment.This makes New Delhi resistance may end from the beginning.
There is no overall situation of confrontation
As the military situation on the PLA's side may be better than the Indian army, Modi and the Indian military believe that even if they use military forces, they can only restore the status quo, let alone India's political senior management and the Indian army have been implemented unwillinglyChange the spirit of confrontation.This has made China -India's victory in this storm.If the Indian Army tries to adopt a meal strategy in several regions, the Indian side is more likely to face the situation of the situation brought by their own behavior.
In the final analysis, China's overall attitude on the China -India border is still the Western Line without war. Since the Chinese side has confronted the Austrian Mental (DBO) tent in 2013, it has been advocated that the Indian side should not build facilities on the front line of the western border.The Chinese side quickly ended the operation.
However, the Indian Fang built the Darbuk-Shayok-Dbo ROAD, and in August 2019, it will include the nationalization of the Ladaka region of the Kashmir.It caused Beijing's dissatisfaction in tactics and strategy, and also made New Delhi's intellectuals have to start to worry about the danger after the local military conditions and the new situation were superimposed.The Indian Route News (The Wire) and other media believes that if the Indian side exacerbates the front line of Radaka, it will lead to the joint operation of China and Pakistan, and the risk of encountering two -line operations will become greater.
From the perspective of the Indian side, there are more than one route for the PLA to launch an offense. Among them, the most operable is to go out along the Ali region and insert the front line of Simra, Dharamsala, who is stubborn.And along the Indian Plain to the hinterland of India.In addition, China can also launch an dimensional reduction blow to the Indian Army: For example, the electronic warfare capacity of the PLA's strategic support forces can cover and destroy the communication, orders and control, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, heavenly positioning of the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force, Navigation and timing system.This is also the danger that India is worried.
After the confrontation of Doklam in 2017, with the frequent contact of the Sino -Indian executives, the Modi government has been adjusting the strategy of China in order to make a new breakthrough in bilateral relations.Similar to the Western Line of Beijing, Indian observers have been repeating by the Indian ambassador to China, Vikram MisriIndia -China does not have confrontation in South Asia.For the New Delhi authorities, the main problems and secondary issues between China and India have been very obvious under the current global new crown epidemic, trade war, and slowing economic growth.The objective requirements of New Delhi on economic development and other issues are still real.Therefore, the position of New Delhi on the border dispute will not easily turn to intense action.
As a world country, India has long been adhering to the credentials of the first prime minister of the Republic of India and Jawaharlal NEHRU: India has the status of its current status and cannot play a second -class role in the world, or do it or just do it, or just do it.A loud and loud country disappeared.This is also the driving force for India as soon as I have the opportunity to start catching up with China and other countries in various occasions.But for New Delhi, there may be more than one answer to this question, and this answer is obviously impossible to be a war in 1962.
