Chen Hongbin
Japan's Minister of Defense Kono Kono confirmed on June 25 that the Japanese government has decided to cancel the plan to deploy the Aegis Ashore defense system.Japan originally planned to deploy a defense system in Yamaguchi Prefecture and Akita Prefecture to deal with missile threats from China and North Korea.
Japanese Prime Minister Abe told the media on June 16 that due to the premise of explaining to the two deployments, the project was unable to continue.Of course, at the same time, he also guarantees that Japan's defense system will not have a blankness. In the future, the alternative will be discussed in detail through the National Security Conference.
As early as December 2017, the Abe government, on the grounds of frequent launching missiles in North Korea, threatened Japan, in Japan, which was originally by the Sea of Japan, in the Japanese Sea, it was decided to introduce two sets from the United States.The land -based Aegis system decided to deploy it in Akita County and Yamaguchi County.
The land -based Aegis is a land missile interception system developed by the United States Roma Company. It is not affected by the weather. In terms of all -weather operation, it is more advantageous than the sea -based Zeng.However, due to the huge cost of introducing these two land -based Aegis systems, and how the actual value is played in Japan, it has always been constantly questioning.
Since then, the United States has continuously raised the price, making the deployment costs of these two systems increased steadily.Originally, the U.S. -Founded Aegis system was 80 billion yen (about S $ 14 million). Japan thought that the two sets were 150 billion yen (S $ 1.950 million).In this way, the cost can be lower than that of the Aegis destroyer to prevent missiles.
Unexpectedly, after Japan decided to introduce, the United States continued to increase the price. At present, it is estimated that it is as high as 700 billion yen.Earlier, the Japanese government has spent 12.5 billion yen for this.In order to reduce costs, the Ministry of Defense of Japan even abandoned the requirements of increasing intercepting cruise missiles, and Japan's opposition to this is increasingly strong.
In May 2019, the Ministry of Defense of Japan announced its research report, arguing that the new house exercise field of the Land Self -Defense Force in Akita Prefecture fully meets the requirements of the Six Real Species Exercise Field of Yamaguchi Prefecture.The survey report was immediately transferred to the two local governments.Because the former is only 700 meters away from the residential area, local residents must not be worried about their own security.Because after intercepting the missile launch, it cannot ensure that its booster will only fall in the sea instead of the residential area after being separated.In case of 200 kg of boos, in case of a residential area, it is not fun.So since then, the deployment of Akita County has always faced huge resistance.
But a month later, I found that the above -mentioned survey report was obviously incorrect according to the data cited by the digital globe of Google, and the Ministry of Defense was immediately modified.Since then, in the Senate election, the candidate of the opposition party who opposed the deployment of land -based Jiuzhis in Akita County was successfully elected, which further increased the difficulty of deployment in Akita County.
Due to the consent of the Akada County Government, the plan to deploy there can only be stopped.In October last year, the 19th reserve address of Aoyen, Yamagata County, and Akita County in Northeast China began to re -select the site, and also required to consider the distance from the residential area.In January of this year, Kono Kono and Akita Prefecture, Akita Prefecture, held talks for the first time on the deployment. Zuozhuzhi made it clear that the system will not be allowed to deploy in the county.
Since the matter deployed in Akita County is yellow, Nasamou County is also unwilling to be a grievance.Because there are also residential districts near Yamaguchi County, local defense can also actively cancel this plan.This made one of the two deployment sites that failed to implement it.
The long -term delivery time of the introduction of the land -based Zee Shield system is unimaginable. The United States has no spot at present. The Japanese side was originally estimated to be put into operation after 2025.After learning that the residents of Yamaguchi County demanded that the help of the helper will not affect the strong desire of the residential area, the United States stated that it should redesign relevant software for this; in addition, the launch device must also be stove.This will not only increase 200 billion yen expenses, but also take 10 years, obviously the system is not yet mature.
Such a long -lasting time, Japan can't afford it at all.Even if the price is expensive, the problem is that the technical reliability cannot be guaranteed, which makes Abe cannot be stubborn.The rampant epidemic has led to the suspension of the economy and greatly reduced the room for the Abe's government. Therefore, Japan can only endure pain, or continue to rely on the sea -based system to prevent missiles.Kono Kono reported the idea to Abe twice on the 4th and 12th of this month, and was recognized by Abe; then Kono Kono also informed the decision of Akada and Yamaguchi County Government.
The Abe government suddenly stopped introducing the land -based Aegis system.Because in the past two years, the Abe government has almost hesitated to introduce and deploy these two systems.After spending the power of nine cows and two tigers for this reason, he said that he stopped. This move was within the defense province and the Liberal Democratic Party.Because Abe has always emphasized that in order to protect the safety of Japanese citizens, this is essential!Doesn't need to protect the lives of Japanese citizens now?This obviously needs to have a convincing explanation to the United States at the same time.
In particular, as a symbolic arrangement of strengthening the Japanese and American Alliance, how will Japan explain to the White House in the future and whether this explanation can be accepted by Trump is a big question mark.This is probably not possible to pay a liquidated damage in Japan.Because from the perspective of the United States, this also involves the problem of protecting the US military base from the Japanese base from missile attacks.
Stopping and deploying these two systems is obviously a major event for Japanese defense systems.Japan -related national defense trends also need to make corresponding adjustments; first of all, the defense concept of rebel missile must be made, and great adjustments must be made.At the same time, the Japanese government emphasized that the severe safe environment facing Japan will not change.At the joint meeting of the Liberal Democratic Party's National Defense and Security Committee on the same day, the criticism of the decision was endless.
After the introduction of the land -based Aegis system was stopped, the Japanese defense department may have deep concerns about the decline in deterrence, because the plan is indispensable for Japan's security strategy.As for the impact on Japan and the United States, although the United States has not yet protested on this, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs believes that the impact is undoubtedly profound, and it cannot predict its specific impact.
The US think tank regards Japan's introduction and deployment of the system as the shield of the Pacific Ocean. One month before the Japanese government decided to introduce, Trump has made it clear when visiting Japan that Japan will increase its military purchase from the United States.go along.At present, relevant US companies have made a radar with a production value of 178.7 billion yen for this. After the introduction of the system in Japan, the Abe government must use other equipment to alleviate US dissatisfaction.
The introduction and deployment of two land -based Aegis systems in Japan is the most favorable for who is, and it can be clearly seen from the map that if it is really to defend the security of Japan, the location of the site is incredible: because if North Korea launch a missile,If you can go over Akita Prefecture and Yamaguchi County, from the perspective of its trajectory, it is impossible to fly to the two Japanese political and economic centers of Tokyo and Osaka.What is the picture in Japan so huge, what is the picture?
In fact, as long as two extension lines are drawn from Akita County and Yamaguchi County, the front is Hawaii and Guam.It turned out that Abe was so moving in Ge, not to defend Japan, but to defend the overseas territory of the United States.It's just that this amazing fact, most Japanese citizens are still unknown.
Whether the United States will increase pressure on Japan in the future is not easy to assert.In short, when Trump's spread of domestic epidemics and protests continued to intensify, while sitting in the sorrowful city, Japan came to such a real hammer, and he obviously would not give Abe good fruit.Japan intends to decide the next step of countermeasures based on the results of the US election in November this year.
The author is Shanghai, China
Associate Research Institute of International Issue Research Institute
The Abe government suddenly stopped introducing the land -based Aegis system. This is not a heavy bomb, which has aroused strong attention at home and abroad at home and abroad.Because in the past two years, the Abe government has almost insisted on the introduction and deployment of these two systems at all at all costs. After spending the power of nine cows and two tigers for this, they actually stopped., Nothing is a clear thunderbolt.
