Turning in the Time Language
The global disaster of coronary virus is changing the process of the entire human history.At present, the most direct result is to combat the success of President Trump, the number one figure in the world today.
In accordance with the laws of US politics, whether the re -election in the president is basically dependent on the economic situation.Before the epidemic outbreak, the US economy continued to grow continuously since the 2008 financial tsunami, except for Wall Street
At the peak of the stock index, the unemployment rate set the lowest record in the 1970s.Most people think that Trump has a great chance of winning, and at least he can win more than half of the votes.
The coronary virus completely shakes this calculation.Even though the Wall Street stock market rebounded rapidly when the epidemic became a high -tech industry, most economists believe that the downturn in the real economy in the United States will last for many years, affecting the fate of a whole generation.Trump's wish for the rapid improvement of the epidemic, and the newly -closure cases of the southern states have surged and shattered after some of the cases of solution.
Under such a situation, mainstream European and American media are no longer optimistic about Trump's reelection.For example, Economist Weekly uses historical data plus the latest polls of the latest polls to calculate Trump's obtaining
The probability of half of the people's votes is only 2%, and the probability of obtaining a majority of votes is only 10%(10%).
Even so, we must not forget before the 2016 US election, almost all polls and media have always believed that Hillary's leadership forecast.In my opinion, because all recent polls also show that Trump's advantages in the basic market of low -education white people are still very strong. This autumn election has a high possibility of falling on the Democratic Party.The possibility of tickets is not too small.
It is not possible to consider the current prototype of racism as a sign of American voters.On the contrary, a large amount of historical data indicates that the demonstration with violence components will promote the right to the middle class of white people.This is a key to Nesheson's leader Martin Luther Gold that he won the presidential election when he was stabbed.
There is also the crown disease epidemic itself: Although it brings serious economic recession, it also impacted the election at several specific levels.The first is that most state government agencies closed, resulting in a sharp decline in the number of new voters registered this year.The new registered voters are dominated by adults, and they generally tend to the Democratic Party.Although many state governments are allowed to register online or postal, but the procedures are cumbersome and have become major obstacles for voters who tend to run for Democratic Party.
Secondly, it is a major problem presented in the primary election of the new two parties: because of the various difficulties and restrictions brought by the epidemic, and there are no additional election budgets, many places have been forced to merge the voting stations, so there is only one voting point in a city that appears in the city.Case.If the epidemic is still serious during the election, it will significantly lower the voting rate, especially in the urban constituency.Historical data shows that the lower the voting rate, the more unfavorable it is to the Democratic Party, because the abandonment of voting is mainly vulnerable groups.
In addition, the epidemic will also greatly increase the number of mail voting.In addition to causing high voting thresholds that are not good for the Democratic Party, there may be a historical wonders that cannot know who is the last winner on the night of the election day.
The author is engaged in scientific research in North America
