Source: Economic Daily (Taiwan)
Recently, the US dollar index has fallen, from 102.8 on March 20 to 96.6 on June 23, a decrease of 6%. In additionThe release report pointed out that the decline in the US dollar will be the beginning of a larger structural decline, which has triggered more voices in the market to look at the US dollar, and let the topic of the US dollar international preparation of currency king's status emerge again.
From the fourth quarter of 2019, the proportion of global countries with US dollars as a foreign exchange deposit accounted for about 60.89%; information from SWIFT in May this year shows that the proportion of US dollars in global cross -border transactions still accounts for 40.88%The euro, yen and RMB are thrown away, and it is enough to see that the US dollar is still the main currency of the international main preparation.Why is there an international status in the US dollar recently or will be shaken?
The main reason is that the United States has repeatedly regarded the US dollar and the US financial system as a tool for diplomatic and trade policies.For decades, the US dollar has been used by the United States to strengthen economic sanctions on North Korea and Iran. After President Trump took office, economic sanctions, tariffs on tariffs, and restrictions on US dollar transactions were its main strategic tools.Even if Europe and other countries do not agree with this approach, the United States still takes severe sanctions on Russia, Iran, Syria and Venezuela, and even adopt secondary sanctions on Europe and other foreign companies dealing with Iran.Trump's style of loneliness and abuse of the US dollar advantage, and even contempt for international norms and contempt for allies and world agencies, is gradually eroding the global trust in the US dollar.
In this regard, other economies and organizations in the world also strive to avoid the dominance of the US dollar. For example, the British, French, and German countries established the "Inspiral" mechanism in early 2019, that is, the US dollar does not use the US dollar.Settlement is intended to avoid the United States and promote normal trade with Iran; China actively promotes legal digital currency to make it more direct and traceable for international loans and assistance, and the ultimate goal is to replace the US dollar.In addition, Bitcoin and other private digital currencies, as well as Libra digital currencies initiated by Facebook, are also new payment tool options in the digital era.
The question is that from the perspective of the history of modern financial development, the wide use of the US dollar today reflects people's continuous trust in the US economy and its dominant financial system, so that the euro and the voices are not small.RMB or emerging digital currencies may return without success.Because the world's globalization must have two conditions:
First of all, people must trust other certain currencies and determine that they can replace the US dollar.But as far as reality is concerned, the euro and the renminbi have their own deficiencies.The former still lacks internal political cohesion and its complete integration of its financial markets, especially the lack of a unified Ministry of Finance. The joint euro of various countries still issues debt on its own, and the debt letter is different.People trust in the euro; the RMB is subject to the control of China's capital market, the development of financial markets is slow, and the leakage of legal and regulations. In particular, the depth and breadth of the bond market are not enough.Coupled with China's real estate bubble and local debt, the high pressure of financial risks has been added, and the Chinese autocracy is strong. The government and the rule of law are not highly transparent.
Secondly, it is also necessary for the world to go to the United States to go to the United States, so that most people use his currency when paying.Judging from the characteristics of very strong network externality, digital currencies seem to have a chance.However, because the current digital currency is issued by any country's currency authorities, it does not have the effectiveness of law, nor does it have the basic characteristics of the currency -the storage of value, that is, to store purchasing power through digital currencies.The main reason is that the current cyber hacker attack is still heard, and most users cannot truly understand the security mechanism of digital currency in essence.What's more, the good value storage standard must have a stable currency value, but the current digital currency volatility must be too large, and the trust cannot be obtained. Naturally, it is difficult to start the trigger factors of this combined network.
In summary, the status of the US dollar is still difficult to shake under the international preparation of international preparations than the US dollar and higher liquidity.At the same time, compared to foreign challengers, the biggest threat to the US dollar today is more from the US government itself, especially the Trump administration is urgent to leave the multilateral international order established by the aftermath after the war.The economic and trade system is the biggest key to damage the long -term US dollar status.
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