As the coronary virus epidemic rays in Europe and the United States, these countries are dissatisfied with the outbreak of the epidemic, allegations, and pursuit of voices.Many analysts believe that the epidemic will seriously affect globalization and exacerbate the decoustal process of developed western countries led by the United States and China in recent years, which will lead to the two major camps led by the United States and China, which are divided into two major camps.
The author has no intention of judging the value of the dispute between the two parties, but it is based on the development of the relationship between the two sides and the current situation of the dispute: the possibility of local decouragement and campization in China and the West has indeed existed in recent years.The degree of extent will be limited.
Possibility and limited
Let's talk about the possibility of discouragement.Many Western countries have accused: Relevant Chinese departments suppress the whistle blowing in the early stage of the epidemic, and conceal relevant information, miss the best period of the epidemic control, leads to the outbreak of the epidemic and quickly overflow the world.It affects the prevention and control of the epidemic in the world.Relevant institutions in many countries have made claims for China.After the epidemic, Chinese and Western frictions caused by the issue of claims will rise rapidly, exacerbating the decoupling trend of both parties in recent years.
The economic contradictions between China and Western countries have a long history. The core is that China has implemented and adhered to the government -led market economy system (called national capitalism in the West).Doctrine, deep conflict.In the near future, we can't see that China has a strong willingness to change its own basic economic system.
At the same time, the political and diplomatic changes that have occurred in China in recent years have obviously inconsistent Western expectations.Senior US officials have made clear announcements many times, while China has relatively stated that the expectations of the United States have been unreasonable.Both aspects will inevitably make Western countries consider their dependence on the Chinese economy, put economic national security in an important position, and promote the decoustration of the two sides' economies to a certain extent.
Such a decourse process has begun during the Sino -US trade war before the epidemic.The epidemic only exacerbated the decoustal intention of the West from two aspects: First, the Chinese performance in the early stage of the epidemic caused the West to exacerbate the degree of exclusion of the Chinese system.Health level, therefore, decourse helps to maintain its national politics and economic security, and even the health and safety of national life.Safety.
Therefore, the epidemic will almost exacerbate the decoupling process between Western countries and China, including high -tech, medical and even other fields.During the epidemic, the United States has increased its suppression of China and China Telecom, and has introduced stricter export control solutions for China.The European Union and the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Canada, Australia, and India have issued significant restrictions on foreign investment in China.
A few days ago, the US White House Economic Counselor Kurods suggested that the relevant costs of US companies moved out of China support from taxation.Although this is only a suggestion, it has not yet been implemented, but after the epidemic, the decoupling measures between Western countries and China, including the United States, are expected to further intensify.After China's senior management has foreseen the end of the epidemic, China's external environment will face great changes, and this should be planned.
Talk about the limitedness of decoupling.Since the implementation of reform and opening up in China in the 1980s, China and the Western economy have been closely linked. The two sides have played a comparative advantage. Through various forms such as production division of labor, multinational resource allocation, and international trade, they have brought huge economic benefits to both parties.EssenceAt present, many advantages of China, especially the complete industrial chain, cannot be completely replaced by other developing countries.The advantages of the West in the high -tech industry are irreplaceable to China.
Therefore, the West and China are completely decoupled, neither in the interests of the West, but also not in the interests of China.What may do in the West and what they can do is in some military, politics and people's livelihood industries that are limited and localized in China.These areas are cross -agent with high -tech, but non -equivalent.This decourse is actually that China does not want to see it, but it is difficult to stop.In other general fields, both parties, at least Western companies, are willing to continue to maintain cooperative relationships.Even if the Western government encourages its enterprises to withdraw from China and bear some expenses for them, many companies will choose to stay in China.
It should be explained that the decourse judgment is based on the current situation of Chinese and Western relations.Any status quo can be changed.If the relationship between the two parties continues to deteriorate in the future, the possibility of decoupling from partial to comprehensive transformation cannot be ruled out.The key here is that compared with the western comparative advantage, China is weak in technology, and it mainly comes from cheap labor and resources. This is what other developing countries can be gradually replaced.Compared with China, the West has a strong advantage and has strong technical originality, which is difficult to replace in other countries.
Based on this, if the relationship between the two parties continues to deteriorate, the West has more strength and ability to decide with China.Because of this, in the public opinion field, the inside of the Western countries dares to publicize the decoupling proposition; the statements of relevant Chinese officials and the official public opinion have been strongly opposed and accused of decoupled.This is actually a reflection of the contrast between the two sides.Starting from China's own interests, China should continue to adhere to the basic position of decoupling and take various positive measures to prevent or delay this process.
The possibility and limitedness of local campization
Talk about the possibility of campization first.
First of all, from the perspective of Western.The United States and other Western countries not only have a solid alliance relationship in politics and military, but also have a high degree of aggressive economic system.These two aspects are huge differences from China.This is why there are many contradictions within them, but they are always highly consistent when treating China.Over the past two years, the United States and Europe have issued seven joint statements for non -market -oriented on the Chinese economy, which is a proof.
During the Sino -US trade war, the United States has tried to win its allies, to block China's high -tech industries, and has achieved the support of many allies, which has already formed an alliance.Earlier, a few Western countries such as the United Kingdom had a relatively ambiguous attitude towards Huawei.However, after the epidemic created many Western countries such as Britain, these countries are likely to change their attitudes, stand more firmly with the United States, and adopt the same position on Huawei and other Chinese high -tech industries.The EU countries mentioned earlier and the restrictions on foreign investment (mainly targeted at high -tech industries) recently issued by the United States, Canada, Australia and other countries have revealed this signs.
Secondly, from the perspective of China.Its subjective willingness is extremely reluctant to form a hostile camp with the West.However, because it adheres to the political and economic system of the West, and hopes to establish its own world leadership, on this basis, it will inevitably lead to the western congestion led by the United States.In this context, its inevitable policy choice is to strengthen the community of the human destiny community proposed in the past few years.Another economic and trade camp unconsciously.
Talk about the limited nature of camp.As mentioned earlier, the comparative advantages of western countries and China, as well as economic complementarity formed based on this, will not completely disappear in the near future.The decoupling of the two sides is limited, local, not global.In other words, members of the Western camp will not cut off economic trade with China.More importantly, China is unlikely to establish a strong political or economic camp that confronts or isolated from the West.
First of all, after the Old Cold War ended, the political and economic systems of the former Soviet Union and the Eastern European countries had undergone fundamental changes, which were basically integrated with the West, and it was impossible to form an alliance with China.Although Russia has always been in harmony with Western relations, its political and economic system is closer to Western countries, not China.Its partnership with China is essentially a strategic group heating, not an alliance relationship based on values and systems (even if the former Soviet Union and China system oneAt the time, the alliance between the two was also short -lived).Moreover, its economic strength has plummeted, and it is not enough to form a strong economic alliance with China.
Secondly, China's leading international cooperation projects and organizations, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS Cooperation Organization, etc. Many of their member states are Western allies (such as Central Asian countries, India, Brazil), or neutral countries.Even if they strengthen economic cooperation with China, it is impossible to alienate economic and trade exchanges with Western developed countries.Moreover, many countries in these organizations (such as India and Brazil) have contradicted and disagreement with China due to this epidemic.
Thirdly, if a serious economic conflict and confrontation between China and the Western camps, the Chinese economic allies have to choose to stand by the side. In terms of system or interests, in addition to very few countries, most countries may choose to stand in the West in the West.The camp, unless China provides unusual economic assistance.However, once China embarks on the road to confrontation with the entire West, its export exchange capacity will be greatly impacted, so the persistence of foreign aid capabilities will be severely tested.This should attract China's attention.
In short, the limited nature of campization is not only reflected in the limitedness of the Western camp to China, but also the close connection between members inside the Chinese camp and the Western camp, and the camp itself is unstable.The isolation or even confrontation of the two major camps of the two major camps during the Old Cold War period is not only impossible in political and military, but also impossible in terms of economy.
The author is a professor of economics in China
The comparative advantages of western countries and China, as well as economic complementarity formed on this basis, will not completely disappear in the near future.The decoupling of the two sides is limited, local, not global.In other words, members of the Western camp will not cut off economic trade with China.
