Early Hong Kong and Macao Sudden Search
Hong Kong ● National Security Law
The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China will meet for three consecutive days from the day before yesterday. If there is no accident, I believe it is likely that it will be on the National Security Law of the Hong Kong District that has received much attention today.In the past few days, the passage of pro -Beijing public opinion has continuously promoted the passage of the Hong Kong National Security Law as a watershed by Hong Kong's chaos, but it is undeniable that Hong Kong society may face a period of uncertain shock in the short term.
In fact, it was said that it was necessary to punish the US Senate in Hong Kong and China. It has been announced in advance that it passed the Hong Kong Autonomous Act last week to announce the implementation of visa restrictions on Chinese officials related to Hong Kong officials, and launched a warm -up with China.
Many Hong Kong people who have argued that Hong Kong, who have argued that they (also abandoned) were ecstatic, and believed that they had achieved the goal of internationalization of Hong Kong affairs.Even Li Zhiying, the founder of One Media, couldn't help writing an article in its Apple Daily recently, praising the United States to fight against China with the National Security Law of the Hong Kong District. It has made Hong Kong a New Berlin that the United States must adhere to. This is Hong Kong. This is Hong Kong. This is Hong Kong.The cause of miracles in Western value ethics bridge.
It is a pity that many academic research shows that the success rate of economic sanctions in various countries since World War II was extremely low, and it was not more than 30 % as a whole.Hong Kong's speculators think that the implementation of US sanctions can force China to make concessions on the issue of Hong Kong, which seems a bit wishful.
After all, a major key to whether economic sanctions can ultimately be effective are the comparison of resources and capabilities of both sides.The authoritative books of the international political scholars who discussed economic sanctions reflected on economic sanctions, and systematically analyzed more than 200 cases of US foreign economic sanctions in 1914. As a result, in most economic sanctions casesThe ratio of the national economy is at least 10 times; in the relatively moderate economic sanctions, the economic scale of the initiative is more than 200 times larger than that of the target country.
As the boss and second child of the current world economy, the economic scale gap between the two sides is not large.Unless the United States eventually resorted to force, the effect of relying on economic sanctions alone has always been limited.
The Trump administration may take into account that the effectiveness of comprehensive economic sanctions is not high. This time, only the smart sanctions (also known as target sanctions) methods are only adopted, which is targeted sanctions.With the group, express dissatisfaction with Beijing.However, from the perspective of the trading, the effect of smart sanctions is lower than that of comprehensive economic sanctions, and it is quite difficult to achieve the results of strength and accuracy like cruise missiles.
Taking this time as an example, the United States has not yet named which Chinese officials.Bloomberg quoted Huafu's news that the number of Chinese officials who were sanctioned was the number of units.In the case of limited humanities exchanges in various countries during the epidemic, the United States's move is just a posture, and it does not have much substantial impact.
The United States also has a statement that there will be a sanctions list against Hong Kong Special Administrative Region officials in the future.Ironically, the Hong Kong Government has always had many senior officials in the West, but under the pressure of the United States, many officials and civil servants were forced to stand side by side and had to adjust their positions to be loyal to Beijing.US sanctions can be said to have lost money.
Of course, the author learned from the Hong Kong diplomatic circle that the United States will have the second and third waves of smart sanctions in the future.For example, review the policy of exporting military and civilian technology products exported to Hong Kong to combat Hong Kong's ambition to develop a scientific and technological city.However, Hong Kong's high -end sensitive equipment and technology have always been not easily imported from the United States.US measures may bring a little interference to the Hong Kong market, but the actual impact is limited for the time being.
In the final analysis, US sanctions China and Hong Kong say that it is easy to be difficult.The scope of sanctions is too small and the effectiveness is limited; the scope is too large, which may cause revenge against sanctions between the two places, which is not good for the US economy.
For example, Hong Kong has always been a single economy with the largest trade surplus in the United States.According to the data of the Hong Kong government, the United States has made a total of nearly $ 300 billion in trade surplus in Hong Kong in the past 10 years.If the US economic and trade restrictions on Hong Kong are against the sanctions of Hong Kong, it will also harm the interests of American companies in Hong Kong.This is also an important reason for the US government to comprehensively sanction the Hong Kong mouse taboos.
If the Hong Kong frying school is still looking forward to the US sanctions, you may wish to look at the neighboring Macau again.In September 2005, the U.S. Department of Finance accused the Bank of China Bank of Exchange to assist North Korea for money laundering, and suggested that the US company disconnect any contact with the bank, intending that through financial sanctions to completely destroy the actual economic and trade connection between North Korea and the outside world.
In the early stages of Smart Sanctions in the United States, the Pyongyang government was really severely hit.Because North Korea could not fight the strong financial offensive in the United States, he returned to the negotiating table of the six -party talks after the first nuclear test.But once it adapts to smart sanctions, North Korea will soon conduct a second nuclear test, but also withdraw from the six -party talks.The situation in the peninsula has since since.
Judging from the living example of the Bank of China Banking Bank, even a North Korean economic sanctions are unbearable. What role can it play in the Asian power China?Sometimes, the thinking of Hong Kong's fried school is really confusing.
