Hong Qichang: Controlling the risk of military conflicts on both sides of the strait i

Author: Hong Qichang

Dragon Boat Festival vacation, but there is absolutely no holiday in national security!Since 2020, there have been 15 mainland fighter aircraft in the media reports that have entered the Taiwan Air Defense identification zone, and 8 of them have frequently occurred within 2 weeks in June.Recently, it is rumored that the mainland intends to set up a defense identification zone in the South China Sea.The frequent actions of the People's Liberation Army are targeted at Taiwan, but they are more focused on the strategic layout of the Asia -Pacific region in Beijing.The Taiwan government and the society must respond carefully, but the media and thesis should not propagate panic because of this.

First, to understand the differences between the mainland fighter aircraft on Taiwan's defense security, we must first clarify the differences in the AIRSPACE or ADIZ (ADIZ).Leading is the airspace over the national territory and the territorial sea (12 nautical miles). If the PLA is not allowed to go to the Taiwan Air Defense identification zone and approach the Taiwan led, it is definitely a serious military provocation or even the war end.Relatively, the air defense identification zone is a general concept and has no effectiveness of international law.Generally speaking, the ADIZ Painting Congress requires that other aircraft to enter the identification zone will report to the flight plan and identification logo. During the time of the aircraft of other countries entering the identification zone, ADIZ will be set up according to the dynamic assessment risk of other countries, and the monitoring or interception will be adopted accordingly.Different measures such as driving away.

According to media data, the scope of the air defense identification zone in Taiwan surpassed the west of the strait and even covered the parts of Fujian, Jiangxi and Zhejiang Province in the southeast of China;The East China Sea Air Defense identification zone and the Japanese air defense identification zone overlap; the south covers the northern part of the South China Sea and the Basilica Strait and borders the Philippine air defense identification zone.

In other words, whether it is the PLA fighter in the southeast of mainland China, or the Action of the PLA fighters from the Gonggu Strait in the northern part of Taiwan or from the southern Taiwan through the Basta Strait to enter the Western Pacific Philippine Sea, it must be in Taiwan ADIZWithin the scope of the warning, it is impossible for the Taiwanese side to expect the PLA to notify the dynamics, or go west or west of the mainland in mainland China on the middle line of the mainland.Therefore, it is necessary to completely reject mainland fighters into Taiwan ADiz have practical difficulties.

Second, the painting of the mainland fighter planes and the establishment of the East China Sea and the South China Sea Air Defense identification zone is not just aimed at Taiwan, but a more magnificent strategic goal.According to the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2017, the target of the founding of the army proposed is to basically achieve the mechanization and informationization of the PLA in 2020. By 2035, the national defense and military modernization will be basically achieved. By the middle of this century, the PLA will be fully built into a world -class army.The specific strategic goal is to refuse to intervene/region, continue to promote the projection scope of the PLA's military forces to break through the first island chain (Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, etc.), and even deterred the second island chain (Guam, Mariana Islands, etc.) to form the PLA armyLocal advantages in the Western Pacific region.

Under the strategic goals of the mainland, the main intention of the PLA's implementation of long -sea airline training is not only to intimidate Taiwan with military planes and warships around Taiwan; it is to establish modern ocean combat power to challenge the authority of the US military and the United States in the Western Pacific.If the PLA can retreat from the first island chain to the second island chain, when the East China Sea, Taiwan, and the South China Sea issues will be restricted, and the US military's intervention ability and response will be restricted; while China in the Western Pacific regionPolitics and military talk rights are even more powerful.It is expected that in the future, mainland fighters enter the Taiwan Air Defense identification area to cruise from the north -south ends of Taiwan to the Philippine sea seas will only be more frequent.

Before the goal of the Beijing Army's establishment has not yet reached the phased results, unless major changes have occurred, they will not rashly start the war.Therefore, the Liberation Army's dynamic dynamics can be understood as a state of control or a pressure test to the Taiwanese side.Taiwan can take this opportunity to view tactical response ability and a proper rate of arms. On the other hand, it should develop closer exchanges and cooperation with international allies such as the United States and Japan with political value and regional interests such as the United States and Japan.

For example, the US Marine Corps released the 2030 army design documents that have regarded the mainland as an important competitor.The United States Pacific Air Force Commander Brown said that one of the focus of the US Air Force Integration Center (AFWIC) for the future research planning of the US Air Force is to respond to the challenges brought by China in the Pacific region of India.In order to promote the security cooperation between Taiwan and the United States and Japan, administrative and legislature in Taiwan should have consensus, accelerate the promotion of relevant policies and regulations with the upgrade of military reserve upgrades, and Taiwan -American and Taiwan -Japan Free Trade Agreement linked to national defense issues.

In the end, the author also called for the upgrading of military forces in the Asia -Pacific countries. At the same time, it also represents the risk of risks to wipe the fire and the risk of prudent military conflicts.The military has the responsibility to monitor potential threats, but it must also take the time to release the news of the PLA's dynamic news, so as not to cause the people's psychological fatigue and neglect the threat of the PLA, or cause social turmoil due to excessive panic.I look forward to being willing to adhere to the dispute between the two sides of the strait.

(The author is the chairman of the Qianhai Foundation)