In the past year, the disputes in the South China Sea have frequently occurred, and the situation has been heating up again.

In front of the unilateral operation around the South China Oil and Gas Resources, Vietnam restarted Wan'an Beach oil and gas exploration and development, and Malaysia's oil and gas drilling behavior near the Kangyansha in South (North); LaterChinese fishermen are engaged in fishing activities in the traditional Southwest fishing ground, showing a tough posture and high -profile hype.The South China Sea Strategic Scenic Power Platform (SCSPI) found that a large number of Vietnamese fishing vessels illegally fishing illegally in the waters near Hainan Island.In addition, the struggle between the South China Sea's law has once again intensified. Malaysia unilaterally submits an application for the external boundaries of the continental shelf of 200 nautical miles away, and the Philippines to follow the Philippines to follow the relevant disputes between the South China Sea, and the mandatory arbitration unilaterally.

During the consultation process of the South China Sea Code, this tacit understanding of any complication, expansion and internationalization of the situation has been broken.Regarding the window period before the signing of the South China Sea Behavior Code, the window period is accelerated to promote unilateral operations to consolidate and expand its vested interests in the South China Sea.

In 2013, the Philippines unilaterally arbitral arbitration on the relevant disputes of the China and the Philippines in the South China Sea unilaterally.What role will the Philippines play in this new round of the situation in the South China Sea heating up?

First, after the Philippines was unwilling to live in people, it imitated some of the sounds to promote unilateral operations at sea, in an attempt to consolidate and expand its vested interests in the South China Sea through the construction of islands and reefs.

Thitu Island (Pag-Asa Island) has an area of about 0.33 square kilometers, which is the second major nature island of the Nansha Islands second only to Taiping Island.There are simple airport runways, communication base stations and military camps on Zhongye Island, and deployed military forces.There are small immigrants on the island, and about 300 Philippines have become residents on Zhongye Island through immigrants.There are more than 20 houses on the island, including community activity centers, medical clinics, city halls and schools.

The simple airport runway on Zhongye Island has been in disrepair for a long time and many collapses, which endangers the normal take -off and landing of the aircraft.The Philippines announced in 2013 that it will upgrade the airport runway and military facilities of Zhongye Island. In order to improve its victory in the so -called South China Sea arbitration case, the upgrade and transformation activity will be suspended.

In August 2016, the Philippines restarted the airport upgrade and reconstruction project. The beach ramp is planned to be completed by the end of 2018.On June 9, 2020, one and a half years after the extension, the Philippines was delivered to the new beach slope on Zhongye Island.As the command center of the Philippines, the Philippines is a significant status. The beach ramp is essential for the subsequent expansion and reconstruction project of Zhongye Island.

The Philippines promotes the revision of the draft constitution, and the strategic significance of Zhongye Island will be even more significant.The national territorial clauses of the draft constitution have emphasized that the Philippines has territorial sovereignty based on international courts or arbitral tribunals.The implication is that the Philippines can advocate the territorial sovereignty and corresponding marine rights in the South China Sea in accordance with the South China Sea arbitration.From this perspective, the strategic significance of Zhongye Island as the instruction center of the Philippines is the island and reef, and its strategic significance in its sovereign claims will be more prominent. Military and civil facilities on the island must be further consolidated and strengthened.

Secondly, it is difficult for the Philippines to respond to the situation in the South China Sea alone. Philippine and American military cooperation and the status of American military allies are still important.

On June 9, the Philippine Defense Minister Lorenzana led a public officer to the island and presided over the ritual transfer ceremony of the beach ramp project.On the same day, Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Duterte had a congratulatory message on the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the Philippines.Just on the special day of the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the Philippines, the Philippines held the project transfer ceremony attended by the Minister of Defense on the controversial islands and reefs. Perhaps it was a reflection of some extent of the Philippine Army's willingness to relax and sparse.

In response to it, in less than four months after the announcement of the termination of the visiting forces signed by the two parties in 1998, Philippine Foreign Minister Odro Middot; Luo Qin told the media that according to President Duterte's instructions, from 6 from 6, from 6Beginning on the 1st, the Philippines decided to suspend the lifting of the visiting troops.At that time, there were many oppositional voices in the Philippines at the time of the termination of the visiting forces. At that time, the pro -beauty forces cultivated by military assistance for many years still support the Philippine and US military cooperation.In order to maintain the stability of the current political situation, Duterte may have to win this part of political forces.

At present, the Philippine government and the army have exposed many problems in front of the Coronary Virus epidemic crisis. To respond to the rise of the South China Sea, it will be more stretched.In recent years, the United States has assisted the Philippines for military assistance to US $ 1.3 billion, which has great effects on the training of Philippine military personnel and cracking down on domestic terrorism.

Philippine and American military cooperation has a long history. In the new situation, the Philippines is still necessary to maintain military cooperation with the United States. The identity of the US military allies is an important amulet.Don't forget that US Secretary of State Pompeo has made it clear that any armed attack on the Philippines in the South China Sea will trigger the common defense obligations stipulated in the United States and Philippines's common defense treaty.

Under the impact of the coronal virus epidemic, not only the global economy has been hit hard, but the regional and international political situations have also undergone important changes.The Philippines is consolidating and expanding its vested interests in the South China Sea by strengthening the construction of islands and reefs and maintaining the Philippine military cooperation.

The strategy of balanced economy in China and military security is a choice that the Philippines cannot completely get rid of.For the Philippines, it is better to be as low -key and pragmatic as possible to avoid playing a heavy role in the new round of the South China Sea.

(The author is an assistant researcher at the South China Sea Research Institute)