The author mentioned in an article published by the United States in Singapore on June 15th in the prediction of a century -old competition in the United States and the United States in China: The competition between China and the United States will last a century and will also be a century of peaceful competition.It happened to China and the United States.At the same time, China and the United States will not let each other down.The winning or losing of the century -old competition between China and the United States will depend on who falls down by itself.
Within a century, China will rise steadily.The rise of China is just brilliant and will not lead the world.
I. The glorious history of Chinese history is limited to the Chinese territory of the country and the rich people, and never lead the world.
Talking about the rise of China, I have to talk about Chinese history.China has a long history, and has been calculated for nearly 4100 years since the Xia Dynasty; it has been calculated from the first unified Qin Dynasty in China for about 2240 years.
About 2070 BC, the Xia Dynasty appeared; during the Shang Dynasty, the earliest mature text MDASH; Oracle; the society was further developed in the Western Zhou Dynasty, the productive forces were improved during the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period.In 221 BC, Qin Shihuang established the first unified multi -ethnic autocratic centralized centralized feudal country MDash; the Qin Dynasty; the Western Han Dynasty and the Eastern Han Dynasty further consolidated and developed a unified situation, and Chinese characters were basically set.During the Jin and Northern and Southern Dynasties of the Three Kingdoms, China entered a split and separation situation.
During the Sui and Tang Dynasties, the economic prosperity, the rapid development of science and technology, and extensive cultural impact.During the period of Liao and Song Xia Jinyuan, multiculturalism blended, and the economy and science and technology developed to a new height.During the Ming Dynasty, the economy was developed, and capitalist buds appeared in the Jiangnan region in the late Ming Dynasty; the territory of China today was established in the early Qing Dynasty.
In the mid -19th century, after the Opium War, China began to become a semi -colonial semi -feudal society.In 1911, the Revolution of 1911 broke out and overturned the emperor's system.After the war of liberation, the Communist Party of China established the People's Republic of China in 1949.
There are several heydays in Chinese history, and it is necessary to review it:
The first is the rule of Wen Jing.It refers to the governance of the Western Han Dynasty Emperor Hanwen and the Emperor Hanjing Emperor.During the Wenjing period, he attached importance to morality to the people. At that time, the society was more stable, making the people wealthy.By the later period of Emperor Jing, the country's granary was plump.The living standards of the people have been greatly improved, and the material foundation of the Han Dynasty has also been greatly enhanced.Wen Jingzhi's rule is not only a great era of the rapid development of economic and cultural development in Chinese history, but also the first prosperity of the Chinese civilization after entering the empire era.
The second is the prosperity of the Yuan Dynasty.It refers to the prosperity of the Tang Dynasty under the governance of Tang Xuanzong.During this time, the Tang Dynasty reached a very high level in all aspects. The national strength was unprecedentedly strong, the socio -economic prosperity was unprecedented, and the population increased sharply. During the Tianbao period, the population of the Tang Dynasty reached 80 million people.EssenceDuring the early Yuan Dynasty, after Tang Xuanzong's excitement, the national strength of the Tang Dynasty reached its heyday, forming the prosperous situation of the world in three years, and the world of the world.During the Tang Dynasty entered the heyday, the feudal society in China reached its peak stage.
The third is the prosperity of Kanggan.It was the last prosperous age of the ancient Chinese feudal dynasty.During this period, the three generations of the three generations of Kangxi, Yongzheng, and Qianlong died for 134 years. During this period, the Chinese society reached the extreme under the feudal system.The population growth is rapid and the territory is vast.The prosperous period of Kanggan, the vast territory, and many people.The government of the Chinese Qing Dynasty unified Mongolia, Northeast, Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan. It laid the territory of China today and realized the unification of the Chinese nation.
Second, modern centuries of poverty and humiliation can be said to China's rise today.The rise and revival of the nation have nothing to do with leading the world.
Modern Chinese history is the history of Chinese history established from the Opium War in June 1840 to the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949.After the late Qing Dynasty, the period of the temporary government of the Republic of China, the period of the Beiyang warlord, and the period of the National Government, it was the history of gradually forming the semi -colonial and semi -feudal society in China.This history is a history of humiliation full of disasters and backward beating. It is a history of exploration of freedom and democracy to explore the country of freedom and democracy. It is a history of the Chinese nation resisting foreign aggression.The First Opium War in 1840, the Second Opium War in 1856, the Sino-Japanese Sino-Japanese War in 1894, the Eight-Power Allied Forces invaded China in 1900, the Japanese and Russian War involved in China in 1904, 1931-1945 to Japan invade China from ChinaWar, etc., can be said that during the century of modern Chinese history, due to the poor and weakness of the country, the Chinese people of the Chinese nation have suffered a history of bullying from foreign ethnic groups that have never been used in 5,000 years.The far -reaching nation affects national memory.
It can be said that the revival of the rise of the country in China is based on the humiliation of this century. It is mentioned on the basis of the glorious history of China for thousands of years, and it has been mentioned on the basis of many national prosperity history.In modern times, the poverty and weak humiliation has been said to be the rise of China today.The rise and revival of the nation have nothing to do with leading the world.The rise of China has nothing to do with revenge.
In 1949, after the establishment of New China, China's development path was not smooth, and many detours have also been taken.
More than 40 years ago, the world economy was developing rapidly, and the progress of scientific and technological progress was changing. The chaos of the Cultural Revolution caused the Chinese economy to be on the verge of collapse. The people's food and clothing became a problem.Comrade Deng Xiaoping, the leader of China at that time, pointed out: If we do not implement reforms now, our modernization and socialist cause will be buried, and poverty is not socialism.It can be said: reform and opening up, bringing a big China that brings Huaxia children.
Reform and opening up is a great self -awakening of China.Can list a group of official data on the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up.In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, my country's GDP has increased from 367.9 billion yuan to 827 trillion yuan in 2017, with an average annual increase of 9.5%, which is much higher than the average annual growth rate of about 2.9%of the world economy during the same period.The proportion of my country's GDP accounted for GDP has increased from 1.8%at the beginning of reform and opening up to 15.2%, and the contribution rate of world economic growth over the years has exceeded 30%.The total imports and exports of goods in my country have increased from US $ 20.6 billion to more than $ 4 trillion. Cumulative use of foreign direct investment of more than US $ 2 trillion, with a total foreign investment reached 1.9 trillion US dollars.my country's major agricultural products have jumped at the forefront of the world and established the world's most complete modern industrial system.my country is the world's second largest economy, the largest manufacturing industry, the largest country of goods trade, and the second largest country of commodity consumption.
3. Will China rise into a large -scale world country with a large scale?
Will China rise into a large -scale world country?As a characteristic of a global country, China is of course the economic strength of China.It is noticeable to recognize China's economic achievements. In 2015, China's GDP accounted for more than 15%of the total global volume, and it has now reached 16 ~ 17%.You know, China ’s GDP accounted for only 1%of the world’ s GDP in 1980.Professor of Cambridge University, a famous Sinologist Martin Yak in a speech in 2019, predicts that by 2030 or 2035, GDP will reach one -third of the global total. This ratio is also the proportion of China in 1820, soIn fact, this is traditional to follow.
Professor Jacques mentioned: China's economic strength may be extremely strong, far greater than any power in modern history.Tesla's boss Musk has recently predicted that China's economic aggregate will soon reach 2-3 times that of the United States, at least twice.China's population is huge, and some agencies predict that the size of China's middle class will exceed 800 million in 2030.You must know that this 800 million is more than twice the total population of the United States.Such a huge scale is a huge economic foundation that any country cannot ignore.
Compared with China ’s technology, it is more of the two hundred years of technological precipitation of the industrial revolution compared to China’ s science and technology.Moreover, there is another saying that standing on the shoulders of the giant will be farther and farther.Based on the huge base of China's population, China's learning and innovationThe capacity is very powerful.There was a very popular point of view in the West, thinking that China does not have real innovation capabilities, and believes that China is good at plagiarism and imitation, but it cannot make creative and radical changes.I think this kind of contempt and contempt for China's innovation ability has been greatly reversed in recent years.Since China ’s intelligence and hard work have been fully proven in the past thousands of years of history, it will also be reached to the world again in the long history of human history.
The decline of China since 1840, the root cause is not to pay attention to and despise technology and business.The current rise of China is actually the attention and rise of science and technology and business.China is far from the world's number one population, the profound culture, and the wisdom and diligence of the nation, which will combine the huge rises of technology and business, destined to return China to the world's largest economy.
4. China's rise will not lead the world.Getting along with China will be the only correct choice for the world's major powers.
China's volume is too large, it is the fact that any country and no country decision makers cannot be wiped out.It is realistic to know that the current affairs are Junjie.The United States is still trying to block and curb the rise of China.However, history will prove that the United States will slowly adapt to China's great rise. With some time, the United States will naturally accept the rise of China.
The author mentioned in the 100 -year prediction of competition between China and the United States: The competition between China and the United States will last for a century, and it will also be a century of peaceful competition. In the nuclear weapon era, there will be no Xuexidd trap occur in China and the United States.
If the situation can be tried in a long -term perspective, the United States can find that it is better to face the rise of China as if it is pragmatic.
The general public opinion of the United States has indeed threatened China's strong rise, because China will soon replace the United States to become the world's largest economy.Looking forward to suppressing China's growth and maintaining the leading advantage of the United States, this idea has some support in the United States, but more will just be a wish.
The author believes that using various measures and methods to suppress China's growth, it is difficult for the United States to find a trick that does not hurt its own decline.Trump has recently been completely decoupled with China.But it will prove that this trick will be the most stupid to suppress China's growth and hurt the United States itself.
Because the economic volume is about to hang up, the future world is that the United States needs China more, not that China needs the United States.
China is deeply clear that the European and White world is the most important force in the rise of the world in recent century.However, 200 years ago, China had little contact with Europe and the United States.In the thousands of years of strong history of China 200 years ago, there was no pursuit, ideas, and actions that wanted to lead the white world.
In the past 200 years, China and European and White World have a lot of contacts, but they are more unpleasant to be bullied and bullied history and memory.I think that most Chinese people, in the face of the rise of today's country, are more about being bullied by the European and American world.It is definitely difficult to hear the voice of the key white world.Of course, no one in the world in the world has thought of being leaded by Chinese leaders and accepting Chinese command.
The rise of China is only in the territory of China.Based on China's weakness and no desire to lead the European and White world, China is not a leader in the pursuit of the world.
It can be said that the current global super position and the role of world leaders in the United States are mainly European and American worlds.Its leadership role is also basically limited in the white world field, not the leadership of races around the world.Asia -Africa and Latin, the United States is also unable to lead.
In summary, China has no desire to seek the dominance of the white world in the United States.Therefore, China's rise will not pose any threat to the dominance of the white American world, and it will not be threatened.
However, China does not welcome the United States' enclosure to China at their doorsteps and its own development rights.For a large country that gets rid of national shame and realizes the rise, it is a kind of humiliation and suppression to stop a fence in front of the house.
In terms of development model, the West believes that China's success is the challenge of the Chinese model to the Western model, but this is actually a understanding of unconfident and stagnation.The western world must be deeply clear that the national system with private capitalism as the core is not as unchanged and stopped as it is now a few decades later.The western national system can also be continuously improved, and the national model of capitalism will also improve with human development.
Each country has its own political and economic environment, cultural soil and social conditions, and the development path of the system model is also different.Everyone's basic desire for self -stretching and pursuing human rights is all global, but each soil will grow their own things.
China's characteristic socialism is based on public ownership and a variety of ownership of private ownership. In fact, it effectively combines the advantages of national socialism and western private capitalism.1. State socialism, allowing the country and the government to focus on the people as the center, and carry out all work around the interests of all people.promote.2. Private -owned private enterprise models can fully release the wisdom of all nationals and promote the best of the entire people to create the maximum output of the maximum wealth. Enterprises like Huawei Alibaba Tencent as well as European and American companies can also succeed in China.3. The state -based national enterprise model will allow national strategic industries such as strategic industries, national defense industries, and high -end industries to promote the development of national strategic industries such as high -speed rail shipbound space and one stars.The power of the country supports promotion.
This national socialism, private ownership private enterprise models, state -owned enterprise models, and national -owned system -based national enterprise models, the combination of the three will be greatly likely to become the mainstream trend of the development of the world's national system.The capitalist model of simple private ownership in Western Europe and the United States will gradually evolve towards this three -combined model trend.
In 2019, Trump asked Carter: Why did China surpass us?Carter said: Get along well with China, we will live well.
China and the United States, these two world -world powers in the West and the East will be able to get along with each other well, and they will also contribute their huge forces to promote the progress of human progress.
Author: Peng Shengyu (Strategic Researcher)
