01 Weekly
Author: Xu Qiumeng
The DPRK -Korea Liaison Office building of the Kaicheng Industrial Zone of the DPRK and South Korea came out on Tuesday (June 16) on Tuesday (June 16).The DPRK also confirmed the incident to retaliate against North Korea to spread the leaflets to North Korea.This sudden dramatic scene caused heated discussions on the Korean network. Some people even took out the first picture of North Korea, the first lady of North Korea, who had circulated seven years ago, to become an AV actress.When the Korean people were shocked, the worries about North Korea and South Korea began to cover South Korean public opinion.
As early as June 13, Kim and Zheng, the first deputy minister of the North Korean Labor Party, had been warned: In the near future, the South Korean side will see the useless North Korea -to South Korea contact office to collapse into a ruins.In the same day, the North Korean Society rejected South Korea in order to cater to public opinion, acquiring the scum behavior (before North Korea approved South Korea's indulgence to disseminate the board to North Korea), it will give the other party a price, North Korea decided to completely destroy the North Korea -Korea Liaison Office.
Pyongyang's stiffness, Seoul, worry about it
Zheng Chengchang, director of the North Korean Research Center, who has always held a positive attitude towards South Korea and North Korea's relations, said to Hong Kong 01: North Korea still insists on restoring the relationship between South Korea and North Korea to the hostile relationship during the Cold War.North Korea no longer expects the Wen Zaiyin government, denys the existing South Korea -DPRK military agreement, and converts the relationship between the two countries into hostile relations.
The Ministry of Unification of South Korea also said on June 14 that it was deeply concerned about the North Korea ’s closure of the South Korea’ s liaison office and adopting military operations, and believed that the current situation was very severe.In fact, the concerns of Zheng Chengchang and the Ministry of Unity of South Korea are traceable, mainly based on the actions and statements of North Korea in the past two weeks.
Beginning on June 4, North Korea has publicly threatened the South Korean side, saying that it would demolish the Kaicheng Industrial Park or close the joint contact office of the North Korea and South Korea.On June 9, North Korea unilaterally announced that it cut off all the DPRK communication liaison line.On June 13th, Kim and Zheng issued a warning that the moment when North Korea and South Korea had a knife and two cuts seemed to have arrived.On June 16th, in addition to bombing the liaison office of the two countries, the North Korean military also claimed that it had re -deploy troops in the border areas of North Korea and South Korea.
Last Wednesday (June 17), the DPRK unilaterally announced the proposal of the South Korean government to send special envoys to visit the DPRK, and accused the latter's dedication to overcome the crisis.The next day (June 18), Hezhong International News Agency (UPI) reported that the US reconnaissance aircraft had found that the DPRK army entered the border.
North Korea's decisions in this incident are very different from strengths from the past two years.North Korea made a clear consent to re -communicate with South Korea in the Panmen Store Declaration in April 2018, and temporarily reached a peaceful consensus. The two sides agreed to establish a permanent connection office in Kaicheng, and changed the border non -armed areas into a peaceful area.
Two North Korea -South Korea leaders frequently held in 2018, with a total of three games. Wen Zaiyin became the first South Korean president to visit North Korea in September of the same year, and was unprecedented to have spoken to the North Korean people.The two countries signed a military sector of the Pyongyang Declaration and the Military Field of the Panmuni Declaration designed to fulfill their historic Banmen Store Declaration. They made specific consensus on non -nuclearization and non -militaryization.Essence
Later, the two sides also demolished all North Korea and South Korea surveillance posts within one kilometer of the non -armed zone for the sake of goodwill to be used as a demonstration measures for dismantling all monitoring posts.At the military level, the DPRK also promised its ships to use the Haizhou direct flight and pass through the Jeju Strait.
In contrast, North Korea's current attitude has obviously changed a great change in the past two years. This is also an important basis for Zheng Chengchang and the South Korean government to have a negative attitude towards the incident.Is the time when North Korea and South Korea really arrived?
Kim and Zhengzheng or Sang scolding locust
Some analysts believe that it is difficult for North Korea and South Korea to break due to this incident.From the source of this incident, for this change of face, the reason given to North Korea was that South Korea's indulgence of the north spread the leaflets to North Korea, which threatened to fight back to the south of the leaflet, but this reason is actually very far -fetched.
South Korea has always distributed the seminars to North Korea's Organizes. These organizations have received funding support from the US right -wing organizations and regularly send leaflets to North Korea to receive funds.For these long -established actions, North Korea has not previously issued a military threat to South Korea.
Based on this inference, the leaflet is just the fuse, and there are many universal orders that will cause difficulties in South Korea.From the perspective of Pyongyang, South Korea may not be a targeted object at all. A series of measures taken by North Korea in this critical period are essentially the practice of Sang scolding Huai. The real reason for the furious North Korea is very related to the United States.
Since North Korean leader Kim Jong -un and US President Trump have disappeared last year, negotiations between the United States and North Korea have fallen into a state of stagnation.This is because there are always large differences in the path and method of realization of the two countries: the United States hopes that North Korea can immediately achieve no denuclearization, and North Korea hopes that the United States will first sanction in North Korea, and then perform non -nuclear nuclear in stages.change.
The differences between the United States and North Korea have different impacts on the two countries.As far as the United States is concerned, the stagnation of the US -DPRK negotiations is only back to the original form, and there is no substantial impact; but for North Korea, the current stalemate relationship between the two countries means that it is difficult for the United States and North Korea to achieve reconciliation in a short time.The infinite delay of sanctions and peace agreements has greatly impacted North Korea's economic development plan.
Kim Jong -un was naturally dissatisfied with this.In February last year, he said in a speech at the North Korean Supreme People's Conference that the confrontation between North Korea and the United States had long -term characteristics.He also said that North Korea was willing to talk with the United States for the third leader, but the United States needed a correct attitude.
Senior North Korean diplomats also came out in April last year that Mike Pompeo, a representative of the American Hawk, is the culprit of the breakdown of the talks and demanded that the United States is required to replace it.From Kim Jong -un asked the United States to correct the attitude to asking the US government to replace, North Korea's intention is obviously urging the United States to reduce the negotiation requirements and promote the progress of the negotiations between the two countries.
Unfortunately, the DPRK's knock on the United States obviously did not play any role.Pompeo responded in April last year that he would continue to persist in diplomatic efforts and emphasized that he is still the head of (negotiating to the North Korea).He also said: My team is also working hard to let Kim Jong -un fulfill his promise, that is, the Korean Peninsula is completely denuclear.This statement is sufficient to show Washington's refusal to make concessions on the issue of non -nucleation.
Since this year, with the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia and the approaching of the US presidential election, the Trump administration has no time to take care of the US -DPRK issues.The White House announced on Wednesday that it would extend the state of emergency response to North Korea (threats) for another year and maintain US sanctions on the North Korea.This resolution means that the United States intentionally delays the negotiations of the United States and North Korea.
In the case of knocking on the United States, North Korea naturally did not want to sit and wait, so he shifted his goal to South Korea.North Korea cuts off all contacts with South Korea on the grounds of escaping, and threatened by military activities to destroy the North Korea -to -Korea Liaison Office Building. These seem to be targeted at South Korea., Urging South Korea to oppose the United States to promote the US -DPRK negotiations.
North Korean political show has limited results
On the other hand, North Korea's move is also considered for its face.In terms of diplomacy, the North Korean government has always shown people in a tough attitude. During the scolding war between Trump and Kim Jong -un, he laughed at Kim Jong -un was the Rocket Man.The two sides threatened each other, which once exacerbated the tension of the Korean Peninsula.
Although the US -DPRK relations were eased under the mediation of South Korea, North Korea was still unwilling to show weakness on the issue of non -verification, which also caused the US -DPRK negotiations to fall into a deadlock.Based on the pride of North Korea, it is absolutely not possible to accept the United States neglecting twoThe practice of national affairs is because it is a great shame for North Korea.
At this time, North Korea bombed the office building of North Korea and South Korea, and the attitude turned hard. To some extent, it was necessary to restore the face and show their strong means.Rather than saying that North Korea wants to break with South Korea, it is better to say that North Korea wants to use the opportunity to emphasize the importance of the situation in the world in the world.
It is worth noting that such political operations have limited effects on promoting US -North Korea negotiations.Leaving aside the background of the new crown epidemic, even if the epidemic has been controlled, the Trump administration is currently the presidential election, and there is no time to take care of the US and North Korea.Even the Sino -US trade war, he has repeatedly stated that he will be fixed after the November presidential election.
Based on the above judgments, it is difficult for North Korea to bomb the North Korean office building to affect the promotion of the US -DPRK negotiations. However, North Korea itself has to consider the consequences of launching military operations in South Korea.The dramatic changes in foreign policies also means that the US -DPRK negotiations may be completely ruptured. Previously, the efforts of North Korea and South Korea will pay the east.
Such a result is naturally inconsistent with Kim Jong -un's expectations, so before it is not visible, it seems that North Korea and South Korea have not yet arrived.
