Yu Zhi
On May 20th, the US government issued a strategic report entitled by the US Republic of the People's Republic of China on May 20, announcing that it will be guided by principled realist strategic ideas to compete with China.This is not only the summary of the Trump administration's strategy over China over the past few years, but also a declaration of China's policy of re -election, which has attracted great attention from all walks of life in China and the United States.
The author believes that the latest US strategy report in the United States marked the US strategy to China after 1949. After experiencing three stages of containment and siege, attracting and differentiation, integration and assimilation,The fourth stage.This new strategy will also have the characteristics of curbing siege and maintenance, and will have a significant profound impact on the bilateral relations and international patterns of China and the United States.
Development of four stages
The realism of principles mentioned in the latest US strategic report in the United States is essentially the realism under the guidance of idealism (values) adhered to the overall diplomacy of the United States and the medium and long -term adherence to China.The ideal and values of the principles mainly refer to the political concepts of the United States claimed to take freedom, democracy, and human rights as the core content; and realism refers to the pragmatic strategy of realizing these political ideas.
Based on these concepts, the United States has adopted different diplomatic strategies in different countries in different countries in different countries in different countries (externalization forms of values) and systems (externalization forms of values).The state, according to the needs of realism, adopts different strategies such as curbing and enclosing, widding and differentiation, integration and assimilation, respectively.
After the establishment of the new regime in mainland China in 1949, the United States regarded China as values and institutional heterogeneous countries, and its strategy to China has experienced three stages: curbing and siege, attracting and differentiation, integration, and assimilation.Now it returns to the stage of containment and enclosure.
The first stage was the stage of curbing and crosses from China from 1950 to 1960.The root cause of this strategy is due to the new Chinese regime established in 1949. It is completely heterogeneous with the United States in terms of values and systems, and chose a diplomatic policy on one side of heterogeneous countries such as the Soviet Union.Therefore, the United States, the United States, has implemented more than 20 years of containment and siege strategy for China, and has blocked China in all aspects of politics, economy, military, diplomacy and other aspects.During the period, the two also had a direct war in North Korea, and in Vietnam with some other Asian countries, indirect military conflicts through agents.
The second stage is the stage of pulling and differentiation of China in the 1970s.The root of this strategy is that the huge contradiction between China and the former Soviet Union has led to the United States to attract China, a heterogeneous country to fight against the larger heterogeneous country of the former Soviet Union, and differentiate its camp; this is also in line with ChinaIt is a strategic demand for the former Soviet Union.Its representative incident was the secret visit to China in 1971, and the public visit to China in 1972.The relationship between the two at this stage belongs to the strategy of using each other.
The third stage is the integration and assimilation of the 1980s to the present.The root of this strategy is that after the end of the Cultural Revolution in the late 1970s, under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, it began to implement a reform and opening up strategy and took the initiative to move closer to the West.Based on the consideration of guiding China from heterogeneous countries to homogeneous countries, the United States has adopted this strategy to promote China's peaceful evolution.
At this stage, Sino -US relations started with China -US establishment diplomatic relations with Deng Xiaoping in 1979. The overall development trend was good. It was once blocked due to the Tiananmen incident in 1989.Gradually recover.Although the middle of the Taiwan election in 1996, the Chinese Embassy in South China in 1999 was bombed, and the China -US southern China Haijitou in 2001, the overall development was stable.Later, the two sides strengthened counter -terrorism cooperation. At the end of 2001, the United States assisted China to join the World Trade Organization. It continued until in recent years for about 40 years.
The fourth stage is the re -curbing and enclosing stage that has begun in recent years.At this stage, from 2017 Trump's appointment adjustment to China, the iconic incident includes: the U.S. Defense Report at the end of 2017 will determine China as a strategic competitor; in 2018, it launched a trade war against China and strategic suppression of China's high -tech industry in ChinaAnd with its allies in terms of economic, trade, politics, military, diplomacy, etc., to comprehensively curb the enclosure of China; the storm in Hong Kong in 2019; in 2020, the crown disease epidemic exacerbates the tension between the United States and China.The latest strategic policy on China announced this time marks the completion of its strategic transformation.
At the beginning of the latest US strategic report on China, the base point of this strategic transformation has been opened in Mingyi: The United States believes that the strategy of contact with China (integration and assimilation) in China in the past 40 years has failed. The Chinese economic and political transformation that the United States expectsIt has not happened, but in recent years, it has reversed the trend and used the strength accumulated in the past 40 years. In terms of economic, values and national security, it threatened the security of the United States and the West.Therefore, the United States will choose to compete with China.
Therefore, this transformation of the United States' strategy in China is based on two considerations: First, the United States believes that China's development direction is contrary to its original expectations, and the other is that the United States believes that China's strength is strong enough.The former is the foundation and core.Without the former, China's strength will not threaten the security of the United States and the West. Even if there will be precautionary components (similar to the contradiction between allies), the United States will not comprehensively curb and besieged.
The United States' new China strategy, although it was formulated by the Trump administration, and the re -election of the Trump administration is still uncertain, from the perspective of domestic public opinion in the United States in recent years, this strategy reflects the United States two parties to ChinaThe consistency of the awareness of relations has a wide consensus in the US strategic community.In the future, as long as China continues the current internal and foreign policy, the US relations positioning of China and the overall thinking of China will not have substantial changes, and at most it will only be adjusted in specific strategies and policies.
The United States, the new strategy of China and the previous three stages, is in the same vein in guiding ideology. It is the realism under the guidance of idealism (values, principles).The specific embodiment of sex countries at different stages and situations.The continuity of this guiding ideology shows that the US strategy has never given up its values guidance.It is a misunderstanding that the overall US diplomacy and diplomatic strategy to China is only driven by realism and interests, no idealism and values guidance.
The characteristics and influence of the fourth stage
The fourth stage of the United States to China will have the characteristics of its first and third stages to China. It is different from these two strategies. It is a strategy between the two.On the one hand, it will re -adopt the first stage of curbing and enclosing policies to China, unite its allies, and suppress China in terms of economic, political, military, diplomacy, etc., rather than as friendly to China as the third stage.EssenceThe so -called strategic competition is actually just a softening of a diplomatic wording, and its essence will be curbing and encirclement.
On the other hand, it will continue to maintain contact policies for China in the third stage, including contacts in various aspects of economics, politics, and military.Hua is completely isolated.After all, the two sides already have diplomatic relations and close economic connections, and China's comprehensive strength has also ranked second in the world, which is not the past.
The implementation of the US strategy in the fourth stage of the United States will have a significant and far -reaching impact on the bilateral relations between China and the United States and the overall structure of the world.
First of all, the Sino -US honeymoon period is officially ended, and bilateral relations will be turbulent, and China's strategic elasticity of US diplomacy will be significantly reduced.
First, the friction and confrontation between the two sides in terms of economic, politics, and military will be more intense.Although the first phase of the economic and trade agreement between the two parties has been reached, the implementation is still uncertain.The second stage of negotiations will focus on the deep issues of the Chinese economic system, including industrial policies, state -owned enterprises, and information opening.The negotiations will be extremely arduous, and economic and trade frictions will continue.
The United States' comprehensive and fixed -point suppression of the Chinese high -tech industry (especially military -civilian dual -use technology), as well as the decoupling of both parties in trade and investment, will intensify.The two sides will become a commonplace of home, as well as military confrontation between Taiwan and Taiwan, and the political confrontation between Hong Kong and Taiwan, and military confrontation around Taiwan and South China.
Second, China's elasticity of the US diplomatic strategy will be significantly reduced.On the one hand, the economic and trade conflict between the two sides involves the basic system of China's economic economy. The disputes between the two sides in China, the issues of the Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the South China Sea are also the core interests of the country announced by China.On the other hand, the US strategy has been open and clarified, and it is declared that it will not be blinded by the Chinese side. We must pursue a clear and verified short -term result, and continue to put pressure on China for this, and be willing to pay the necessary costs and costs.Both aspects will greatly reduce China's strategic flexibility to the United States.
Secondly, the international struggle between China and the United States will intensify and will actively fight for the support of the allies, but the campization and counterparts of the Old Cold War will not reproduce.
First, the international battle between the two sides has intensified and actively strives for the support of the allies.The United States will further attract its traditional allies (Europe, Australia, Japan, etc.) to curb China, and use the crown disease epidemic to attract the original relatively neutral developing countries such as India, Brazil, and even differentiated Chinese traditional Asian, African and Latinists to deal with it togetherChina.China will also strengthen economic and trade liaison and foreign aid with the Belt and Road countries under the banner of the community of human destiny, and fight against the United States' suppression and enclosure.
The second is that the camp -oriented counterpart during the Old Cold War will not reproduce.On the one hand, the economic connection between the United States and its Western allies and China, which formed in the past 40 years, cannot be completely cut off and decoupled, which has too much impact on both parties.On the other hand, China is unlikely to form a national group with a high degree of values and systems as the former Soviet Union.Sacrifice exchanges with the United States and the West, and even confront them.
The author is a professor of economics in mainland China
In the future, as long as China continues the current internal and foreign policy, the US relations positioning of China and the overall thinking of China will not have substantial changes, and at most it will only be adjusted in specific strategies and policies.
