In 2009, Johan Galtung, Norwegian Peaceman, published the collapse of the US Empire Mdash; MDASH; the past, present and future.The book predicts that the US Empire will collapse in 2020 (the status of the United States of the United States collapse, not the collapse of the country and social turmoil).This book is a sensation.

More than half of 2020, the prediction of Gartone was re -evaluated and tested.This is not only the assessment and inspection of Galton's predictions, but also a forward -viewing look at international politics.

Questions about Galton

In a hustle and bustle, I wrote an article in the Reading Magazine (No. 1 2014) to hold a negative opinion on the predictions of Galton (Galton and the US Empire: Who is the winner.All are established, and we cannot get the conclusion of the collapse of the US Empire. Because Galton's predictions have two major errors.

First, lack of horizontal comparison in methodology.Galton believes that the 15 major contradictions in the United States are more serious than the six major contradictions in the Soviet Union.As far as the U.S.'s vertical inspection is concerned, Gartone's analysis and judgment has no obvious problems.However, in a game system, the role, function, status and destiny of any unit not only determines it itself, but also depends on the situation of other units, and eventually depends on the horizontal game relationship with other units; and this kind ofRelationship is the only terminal standard that determines the fate of the unit.

The vertical change of the unit itself affects but does not determine its fate in the system.For example, when the situation of a unit itself becomes better, but the unit of competition becomes better, its relative role, function, status, and destiny will be worse.

This principle is not only suitable for international games, but also for any game, including the game of daily life.Therefore, any unit's own condition becomes better or bad, and does not determine that its horizontal position in the system becomes better or bad.Therefore, the vertical difference from the United States itself cannot be obtained by the collapse of the US Empire.

Second, in the existing world, the alternative after the collapse of the US Empire cannot be found, that is, the physical (country) that absorbs the disorderly energy generated after the collapse of the US Empire cannot be found, which makes the prediction and other predictions of the fate of the US EmpireDifferent quality.Although Galong successfully predicted the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, he did not realize that this was different from the prediction of the fate of the US Empire.Because, for the world pattern of the Berlin Wall collapse and the Soviet Union, Galton can be easier to find the follow -up alternative, that is, find the entity that absorbs the disorderly energy generated by two events, and is mainly the United States.

However, it is difficult for him to find a more reliable alternative to the world pattern after the collapse of the US Empire.The alternatives he provided in the book are weak and weak, and have moralism.Garton designed and depicts the world map of the US Empire's collapse, including globalization, global citizenship, and global human rights.However, its way of saying is that it should be, rather than that or such conditions.

Persistence on Galta's question

Six years later, I still insisted on doubts about Gartone and insisted on my prediction: the US Empire would not collapse in 2020.

Although the comparison of the strength of the world's main countries (that is, the main units in the system) has changed, the United States is still ranked first in the world and is still the only superpower.In recent years, some changes have occurred between China and the United States.From its own vertical perspective, there are two major progress in China.First, the gap between GDP (GDP) and the United States is narrowed.Second, technology continues to advance, and a few technologies surpass the middle and low -end and enter the high -end ranks.

On the other hand, China also faces some shortcomings.First, the growth rate of GDP has slowed significantly.Second, technology is still very high -dependent, and there are very few original technology.The biggest advantage of the United States to China is the technological advantage, and it is difficult for China to catch up with the United States in the short term.Third, energy and resource dependence is still very large, and as China ’s energy and resource demand continues to increase, the dependence of energy and resources will expand.

In the United States, there are several positive changes in their own vertical.First, the growth rate of GDP accelerates.Second, the employment situation improves.Third, the US energy situation has improved rapidly and realized energy independence.

The longitudinal changes of China and the United States are in horizontal changes, bringing two positive changes to the United States.First, the gap between the economic growth rate of China and the United States has narrowed.Although the growth rate of US GDP is still not as fast as China's growth rate, the growth rate of the United States is increasing. China is decreasing, and the growth rate has been reduced significantly. From 12.35%in 2007, it reduced to 3.64%in 2018.This is manifested in the fundamental fundamental aspect. Not only is the US economic prosperity increased vertical, but the economic prosperity of China is decreased vertically, but in the horizontal angle, this increase is more conducive to the United States.

China's economy has declined and the US economy has improved. This change is very important. It has greatly influenced the game relationship between the two countries, not to mention that the United States itself is still the first economic power.Second, the gap between the energy situation between China and the United States has expanded, and the US advantages have expanded.

From a negative perspective, first, due to Trump's governance style, in recent years, the division of American society seems to be more serious, including the serious party struggle.However, in a good economic environment, it seems that it may not see the possibility of being turbulent in the United States in the short term (within 10 years).Second, Trump does not play cards according to common sense, which has led to a decline in the international influence of the United States, including some allies who are dissatisfied with the United States.

So, under what conditions, the United States, as the empire, is likely to collapse?First, there is serious civil strife in the United States.Second, other major powers, including the main allies in the United States, such as Britain, Germany, Japan, and France, they all revealed and opposed the US hegemony.In the case of economic upward, the first one may be very small.Although the spread of the coronary virus epidemic in the United States is a completely unexpected factor, and the performance of Trump's treatment of the epidemic is not good, which will affect the stability of American society to a certain extent, but it will not cause the United States to chaos.

However, there is a small probability event, which is the social division that may occur around Trump's elections in the second half of 2020.Originally, the American party struggle was very serious, and the performance of Trump's offering epidemic exacerbated the party's competition.This kind of party struggle has spread to American society, which makes it divided into a very agent and anti -agent, causing society to divide and cannot control it.

However, the possibility of suffering from severe civil strife due to elections and epidemics is very small.If the first case does not happen, the second situation will not happen.Although other great powers are dissatisfied with the United States, there are still no reason to disclose, clear, and strongly oppose the US hegemony, and fall to other great powers because they cannot find a substitute for the US empire for the time being.

Who is ups and downs

To find an effective alternative to carrying and absorbing the disorderly energy generated by the collapse of the US Empire, it is required to maintain its world order than the better international order dominated by the United States -overlord, at least worse.However, this alternative can not be found for the time being.This is two aspects: first, no country's strength can be compared with the United States, which can absorb the disorderly energy after the collapse of the US Empire and maintain the normal order of the world.Legality Construction.

Although there is no shortage of hegemonic actions in the United States, as before, there is no difference, there is no difference, no advantage.Although the United States has something to be criticized, there are several issues worth considering.First, is the United States even worse than the Soviet overlord who is still remembered?Second, is the United States worse than other big powers?Third, if the US Empire collapses, who will maintain world order?Fourth, even if many countries have complaining about the United States, are they especially the international order that is willing to accept an anarchy and lack of international public products?

Mencius said: If you are a fake benevolent, there must be a big country.This statement generally says the conditions for overlords.First, the hegemon must have strength, so it must be a big country.This can be understood as hard power.Second, we must have a set of legitimacy, including ideas, rules and order, especially original knowledge.This can be understood as soft and realisticPower can also be understood as a representative of benevolence.

During the Spring and Autumn Period, the king claimed by Qi Xiong and Jinwen Gong, that is, to maintain the order of the Zhou Dynasty, so that they had the legitimacy of the world, that is, soft strength.From this, you can ask: In the contemporary, whether it is surpassed in the United States in both hard power and soft power, can it exist in the country that can replace the United States that lead the world order?At least it does not exist for the time being, and the West, especially the United States, still fully occupies the original rights and commanding heights of modern civilization.

Of course, there will be no overlords.Once again, the methodology of the previous article is that in international competition, the role, function, status and destiny of the United States does not depend on it itself.The United States does face many problems.If competitors in the United States can achieve active reforms, make its comprehensive strength improve than the United States, and the relative status of the United States will decline.

At a critical point, if competitors in the United States have produced international credit or soft power better than the United States, the major powers in the world will no longer trust and rely on the United States.It is to abandon the US dollar, and the US Empire will inevitably collapse.But this critical point will not happen in 2020, nor will it occur in the recent years.

Therefore, Galton's 2020 matchup with the US Empire will undoubtedly lose.

(The author is a professor and doctoral supervisor at the School of International Relations of Sichuan University)