In recent years, a fashionable new word is called bottom -line thinking.We might as well explore the current hot Hong Kong and Taiwan issues, which may lead to the situation and consequences of China and the United States.
The bottom line of China on the issue of Hong Kong and Taiwan seems to be the 50 years of a country, two systems, and anti -split national law; but now it has become more blurred and vague.The actual and reliable information of this area is also quite limited, so it is difficult to make in -depth and reliable analysis and judgment for the time being.
In the United States, it can be confirmed that regarding the recent Hong Kong version of the National Security Law, the United States will never make any resignation, and it will definitely take all strict counterattack sanctions, until the Chinese side changes the same way on this issue.To put it a little more, the United States will not blink on the issue of Hong Kong.
The United States and the West will not conquer the issue of the National Security Law of Hong Kong, because there is no way to retreat.Hong Kong issues are not nationalism. The United States has always been tolerated by the nationalist trend of nationalism in Asia and China, and even has a understanding attitude.Hong Kong does not involve China's sovereignty, because the United States requires that China has adhered to the official commitment of 50 years in the implementation of one country and two systems in Hong Kong.
The essence and roots of Hong Kong issues are the struggle of ideology, that is, the fundamental worldview and values that the United States and the Western world adheres to the United States and the Western world.That is no incredible for the United States and the West, heaven and night.
Hong Kong is also a special buffer of Eastern and Western society and civilization in the Far East.The agreement reached by China and the United Kingdom that year was that after the return of sovereignty, China promised to ensure that Hong Kong's free capitalist system unchanged for 50 years.Of course, it also includes the existing ideology of Hong Kong. Only in this way can it ensure that Hong Kong's status as a buffer and Liberty Harbor is unchanged.
At present, if China tries to forcibly promote the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law, the ideological characteristics of the Hong Kong one country, two systems, and two systems will be lost. Its buffer zone and free port status will also die in their names and die halfway.The relevant consequences are also extremely serious. Once the United States is compromised and concessions on the Hong Kong issue, the next step means a hot battle conflict that is unavoidable to China in the Taiwan Strait.That is, Hong Kong and Taiwan are the stakes of the cold lips. If the United States is lost in Hong Kong's confrontation game, the battle between China and the United States and Taiwan will be imminent.This is actually a crisis and tragedy that China and the United States have tried to avoid.
The United States and the West believe that the direct defending Hong Kong ideology is unchanged, but it also indirectly curbs military conflicts to avoid the Taiwan Strait.As for the bottom -line thinking on the Taiwan issue, the US position is not difficult to confirm.That is, if the mainland implements the unity of military forces in Taiwan, unless the soldiers who can fight without fighting, or basically defeat the Taiwan's defense system and log in to the main strategic support point and effective control of the central city within 48 hours, otherwise they will directly face face to face directlyMilitary interference in the United States and even Japan.
From the perspective of the conventional combat of the land and sea, once the mainland can not basically resolve the Taiwan Strait battle within 48 hours, the US and Japan's military forces can involve the battle, and the possibility of winning the Taiwan Strait will basically disappear.In the next step of the decision -making level of the mainland, you must choose whether to retaliate against the Taiwan Straits of the United States and Japan.How to retaliate?If the conventional war has lost, it can only be retaliated.Once the Chinese nuclear retaliation starts, the United States will inevitably conduct nuclear counterattacks, which is the level of the Third World War.
It is not difficult to infer that the greatest interests of both China and the United States and even the entire world are to avoid military conflicts in the Taiwan Strait.To achieve this goal, the United States and the West will inevitably maintain their existing political systems and ideology in Hong Kong, and completely prevent the formulation and implementation of the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law.
In addition, this year is the year of the United States election. The presidential candidate of the two parties must compete for who has a stronger position on the Hong Kong issue to win the votes.The Trump administration originally sanctioned Huawei in the Sino -US trade war and coronary virus epidemic, and was also accused of attacks from the opposition party from time to time.
However, the aggressiveness of the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law is exactly provided Trump with a strong support with the correct support with the Chinese New Cold War. It also allows the current anti -medium tone of the opposition candidate, and must be better than.The political situation in the United States after the epidemic and before the election is evolving in the direction of the Sino -US showdown instead of slowness.
The author is an expert in international cultural strategic research and consultation in the United States
