Source: Taiwan Economic Daily Theory
In early March of this year, the United States entered the explosion stage due to a crown disease and suspended the longest prosperity cycle expansion in history since July 2009.In the period, the panic of the financial market also spread rapidly, causing US stocks to decline continuously. Even in the same month, four degrees of fuses appeared. The Standard 500 Index once fell 35%.From the beginning of June, the U.S. epidemic was still rising, and the economic data performed poorly. The unemployment rate in May was as high as 16%, but the US stocks had returned.In just two months, almost fully recovered the loss of the soil.Even though the US stocks plummeted on June 11, the index was still close to the high point before the epidemic.
Why has the economic recession dilemma that has not been lifted and the price of financial assets has risen?In this regard, there are two very different views on the market.First of all, optimists believe that with the introduction of a number of currency easing policies, the federal government rescue policy has been released, and the current performance of some financial indicators is similar to that of the financial tsunami in 2009.Asset prices have a precursor to reverse the trend.
At the same time, in the case of anti -epidemic measures gradually shifting to unblocking and economic recovery, the Standard 500 Index is expected to return to the historical high of 3,386 points quickly.Sexual assets are the best strategy.However, the pessimist believes that the U.S. economic prospects are not clear. In addition, the possibility of the political conflict between the U.S. and China has intensified the political conflict between the United States and China.Essence
In mid -May, Fed Chairman Bauer's interview, saying that the US economy will recover stable in the second half of this year, but the unemployment rate may reach 20%or 30%of the peak level in the next few months.The supporters of the two parties with mutual exclusion can be seated.
Optimistors believe that the new employment in the US non -agricultural employment report in early June reached 2.51 million, which is better than expected.The increase in the number of new employment is due to the reduction of the number of temporary dismissal, but the number of permanent dismissal is still rising. In addition, the average salary and working hours are shortened and the employment conditions of the disadvantaged people have deteriorated, all show that the US economic physique is still deteriorating.It is also consistent with the view that the economy will not fully recover before the end of the year.
Furthermore, it is generally believed that whether the economy can fully recover, mainly depends on whether the epidemic can be fully controlled.The optimist believes that the probability of the second round of the outbreak of the epidemic is low, so there is a reason to believe that the steps of economic recovery after unblocking will not be too slow, and the current optimistic U.S. stocks are also the beneficiary industries in the post -epidemic era (such as biotechnology, asset communication industry); The pessimist focuses on this wave of economic downward, which is a supply -oriented impact caused by the government's blockade of economic activities. In addition, the uncertainty of the epidemic makes the industrial chain of catering tourism interrupted., And the emergence of the high -loss rate and low income caused by the blockade, which has caused the impact of the supply surface to be passed on to the consumer surface impact.Even though the US government has long passed the bailout bill to support consumption and slow down the pressure of corporate operations, most of the terms will expire at the end of the year, so that future consumption visibility is still low, and enterprises will still be under pressure, which will make the economy in a long -term downturn.
Finally, as far as the performance of the financial market, optimists believe that the epidemic is about to be controlled, and economic activities will have no systemic risk as described as Ball, and the FED will be put in nearly 3 trillion dollars in the past two months.If the expected results have been played, the investor expects that the stock price index will return to the high point in a short period of time, and it will be reasonable. Conversely, the pessimistic people are worried that if the epidemic is negativeThen, the current US 10 -year public debt yield, which is only about 0.8%, and the stock price of the decade -year high. It is implying that the current stock market glory is just a bubble phenomenon that the hot money is pushed.
In short, whether it is the current economic performance, the interpretation of the FED policy attitude, and even the evaluation of the financial market, the views of optimists and pessimists are different.However, the phenomenon of observing the ups and downs of U.S. stocks in recent months is that the phenomenon of vaccine research and development and economic unblocking information can be seen that the power of the current driving stock price index is not completely economic fundamental.In the case of complicated doubts about financial asset price bubbles and the development of the development of epidemic conditions like economic impact, investors can only be prudent to correct themselves and avoid fierceness.
