Author: Hu Yong
During the epidemic period, the two strongs and the strong fighting between the United States and the United States, the relationship is getting worse.Sino -US strategic competition is bound to intensify, and the United States will laugh to the end, so Taiwan can't wait to fall against the United States.Indeed, Sino -US relations are in full swing, and the "New Cold War theory" and "decoupling theory" are endless.However, according to the research by mainland scholars Wu Xinbo and others, a new type of great power competition relationship is formed between China and the United States. The ending of the competition will not simply win me.
Traditionally, the military reserve competition, alliance confrontation and ideological attack are the main performances of the power competition of great powers.The US -Soviet Cold War is a typical case.This competitive model has a strong confrontation, which is basically a zero -sum game you die.The Cold War ended with the United States and the disintegration of the Soviet Union.American scholar Fukuyama announced the end of history as early as 1989.However, the current Sino -US strategic competition is significantly different from the competition between the past.
As Kissinger pointed out in the book of China, "decisive competition between the United States and China is more likely to be economic and social competition, not military competition." Although some people advocate that China should expand the army, butThe 2019 version of the Chinese Defense White Paper still adheres to the defensive national defense policy.In 2020, the budget of China's defense expenditure increased by 6.6%, an increase below 2019.These show that even if the United States is aggressive, China has no intention of competing with the United States.Even if China and the United States exist to a certain degree of military competition, China only seek to be evenly matched in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, so that the U.S. military will retreat, rather than hegemony in the world.Compared with the restrained military modernization, China obviously uses more resources to create a modern economic system and the modernization of the national governance system and capabilities.
As China puts more competition between China and the United States in the scope of economic strength and social governance capabilities, the fierceness of competition between China and the United States will be significantly lower than the traditional great power competition.The different performances of China and the United States in response to the epidemic have triggered a warm discussion of global public opinion on the government system and governance capabilities of the two countries, so that national governance unexpectedly became the main battlefield of China and the United States at this stage.Although the Trump administration has been shaking the pot, the facts are better than the argument. Two American public health experts have recently written in Times Weekly. The United States is now the country with the largest number of new crown pneumonia and the largest number of deaths in the world. The mortality rate is over China.100 times.
Although the economic dependence between the economy sometimes exacerbates the competition between China and the United States, the pattern of "you have me, I have you" will help determine the boundaries of competition and prevent the worst situation.On the one hand, Trump's big fight against China, of course, must limit the continuous growth of China's strength, and on the other hand, he wants to seize greater benefits in the Chinese market.Therefore, although the "decoupling theory" is very arrogant, Trump can neither completely cut off the Sino -US economic and trade bonds, nor can the entire Sino -US relations completely break.What's more, it is easy to find a market in various aspects such as volume, infrastructure, and business environment. It is easy to talk about it.
The ending of the competition between China and the United States is likely that the United States cannot defeat China, but mainland China cannot replace the United States.In the long run, the United States cannot avoid the relative decline in its status and influence, and it is unable to comprehensively curb the development of the mainland.The status and influence of mainland China has continued to rise, but it cannot be fully replaced by the United States.Even if mainland China surpasses the United States in terms of economic aggregate, the United States still maintains its relative advantages in military, technology, finance, innovation capabilities, and higher education.Even if the two sides are unwilling and unwilling, they can only compete in the Communist Party of China and work in the middle school management competition.
In short, under the framework of the new competition relationship between China and the United States, who is not aware of the deer.The Democratic Progressive Party can do not bet the wrong treasure.
