Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
The Federal Federation (FED) Federal Public Marketing Committee (FOMC) The decision -making focus on the 10th meeting is strong commitments and no actions; economic outlook is full of risks, loose policies for a long time;There is inflation, don't shrink.Policies are required to maintain stability first, keep full elasticity; do something, but do not do something.
The FED of this meeting made multiple guarantees on maintaining a loose policy.
First, the statement clearly stated that in the next few months, at least the current speed purchase of public debt, residential and commercial loan guarantee securities (MBS); second, the interest rate forecast point line map shows that all decision officials predict zero zero forecast.The interest rate will be maintained until the end of 2021; third, the economy is estimated to be soft. This year, the domestic production hair (GDP) will shrink by 6.5%, and it may rise to 5%in 2021. However, during the middle periodDetermination, and the inflation rate will be lower than 2%from the end of 2022, indirectly showing that the easing policy will not easily change.
From the conversation of Fed Chairman Ball, he could not hear any optimistic taste. He emphasized that we never thought that we had never thought about increasing interest rates, and we had a strong promise to use various tools to make every effort.The rise of employment only shows that the employment market may have bottomed out, but there is still high uncertainty.He also assumes that millions of workers will not be able to return to their original jobs, and some industries may have no job opportunity in a considerable time.Although these views are pessimistic, they are also endorsement for monetary policy.
This meeting did not announce any new measures, only to strengthen the commitment to existing measures, including maintaining zero interest rates for a long time, continuing to purchase assets, significantly expanding the amount of currency supply, and setting up multiple mechanisms to borrow money to all US economic entities; hopeIt can open up the transmission pipeline of the financial system with super huge capital flows.Fed believes that as long as the amount of funds is enough, it will eventually seep into small and medium -sized enterprises and families.
There are many disadvantages of this approach.The first is that funds may overflow into financial assets, driving irrational prosperity or even bubbles in the stock and bond markets.Fund may also be injected into zombie companies to raise debts with debt, which leads to the larger and bigger debt, which is endless.At the same time, resource waste will be formed, the productivity is increased, causing long -term economic stagnation.Fund may also be transferred to the secondary mortgage market to laid seeds for the next financial crisis.
But now, in order to save the wounds, these problems can only wait until the future.If the FED is not firmly stated that it continues to loosen to support the economic recovery, it may immediately disturb the bulls of stocks and the bond market, and repeat the exit storm in 2013. Fed will never dare to repeat the same mistakes.Ball's decreased asset bubbles emphasized that we are closely staring at the real economic goal, and we are completely ignorant of the price of assets in that specific direction.
Although the Fed emphasized that it has been used to solve the number, he is unwilling to show that he is doing things.At present, many experts and scholars have proposed two suggestions of negative interest rate and yield curve control. The former has been implemented in Europe and the Bank of Japan, and the latter is the creativity of the Bank of Japan, but FED has not yet moved.
Negative interest rates will seriously hurt the profit of the banking industry, thereby compressing the ability of lending and willingness, and also harm the income of savings, cracking down on consumption capabilities. Instead, love is suitable for economic recovery. Besides, negative interest rates are also politically resisted.As for the control rate curve control, the FED intervention will be too intervention in the market, which violates the basic concept of the free economy in the US market.
In fact, as long as the funding supply is sufficient, the yield can naturally maintain a low -grade; although there may be a short -term change, this is the natural phenomenon under the market mechanism. The FED should not be more than 俎.
In other words, FED is only willing to guide interest rates and capital flows, and is unwilling to forcibly suffocate market operations.Moreover, European and Japanese experience shows that these two policies have not produced any obvious results so far, and the European and Japan economies are still weak, and their performance is far worse than the United States.Therefore, it is better to be less than that of FED.
To sum up the current FED's policy position, one is to ensure looseness, and the other is to retain elasticity.The debt purchase plan does not propose a fixed amount for the time being, and everything depends on the actual needs; in the face of a highly uncertain environment, it is better to postpone the long -term policy guidance.Now that it will not raise interest rates in the next two and a half years, it is the FED to ensure loose down payment; after the new crown pneumonia's epidemic and economic recovery momentum is clearer, it is not necessary to rush for a while.
