Liu Birong: A image of Sino -US relations ten years later

Author: Liu Birong

Those who care about the international situation will be anxious about the development of Sino -US relations in the near future.When the two largest economies in the world began to confront, the international order began to collapse, and the international community began to be torn.Globalization slows down, and people's hearts began to hesitate.

When Xi Jinping was in power in 2012, he proposed to build a new type of great power with the United States, saying that the two Sino -U.S. The United States could coexist in the world to avoid the trap of Xunxida, but it was not successful.Internationally, it is still used to the interaction between the country and the country with power and politics. In addition, China has confidently proposed the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013 to make the influence accompany the rise of China and threatened the West.So from the rebalancing of the Obama era to the Indo -Pacific strategy of the Trump era, the United States and allies tried to enclose China from geopolitics and geopolitical economy.China's dedication to avoid the trap of Xiu Xidd, it seems that it does not seem to avoid it.

Trump is an alternative president. After he came to power, the US -China relations were twists and turns under his follow -up diplomatic style.The start of the US -China trade war, although Trump's team has long -term distrust of multilaterally made by WTO, but it is a extension of the US -China confrontation.From the trade deficit to the protection of intellectual property rights to the economic structure of the Chinese national team, the scope of the trade war has continued to expand, which has eventually become a new technological cold war.The United States and China may be decoupled.This is a major change that cannot be reversed for other small and medium -sized countries living in the same time and space.

At the same time as the US and China confrontation, mainland China has also worked hard to establish an image to prove that it will bear the responsibility of the great power and will not be caught in the golden Derge trap, which will not be responsible for being responsible.The most typical example is that at the WHA annual meeting in May, in addition to the announcement of donating 2 billion US dollars to WHO, the mainland also said that it will cooperate with the United Nations to set up a global humanitarian emergency warehouse and hub in China to ensure that anti -epidemic supplies are ensuredThe supply chain continues, and 30 Chinese and non -counterpart hospital cooperation mechanisms will be established to accelerate the construction of the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Once the new crown vaccine is developed and put into use, it will also be used as a global public product, and it will be used as a global public product.Social supply.

But China's efforts have not made it a new leading center internationally.In the battle against the new crown virus, the United States' anti -epidemic operation is a disaster, but it is impossible for countries to learn China's anti -epidemic model.Although Europe has expressed his willingness to serve as a conflict between the United States and China, there is still a shadow of the Chinese forces to enter the European port via the way to enter the port of Europe.

At this time, the Hong Kong National Security Law and the US domestic riot occurred.From last year's fugitive regulations to the riots caused by the pushing of the National Security Law this year this year, the national riots in the United States caused by the US's law enforcement and murderers are not the same in nature, but they have created the image of the two countries and also attacked the two parties.The firepower is slightly rest.But after that?How will Sino -US relations develop?

Some people will look forward to the US election at the end of the year. Trump steps down and puts on Biden.But even if Biden came to power, it was stable and predictable than Trump, but the structural conflict in the United States and China was still there.The United States' defense against China will not change because of replacement.The Germans have long had such recognition, and German scholars proposed that US -European relations could not return to the former Trump era after Trump.The same is true of the US -China relations. The competitiveness of the United States and China will still become the tone of the relationship between the two parties. It is necessary to be more able to negotiate and compromise and control different diplomats. The wolf -style diplomacy can be rest.

The US -China Technology may not be completely decoupled. The world may not be split into Huawei and Fei Huawei, but the scientific and technological war will continue to fight.Will mainland China make breakthroughs in certain advanced technology and will determine the last victory of the scientific and technological war.

Of course, the supply chain will be reorganized, but it is not to de -China, but after the new crown epidemic is raging, countries have found that the eggs cannot be placed in a basket. Otherwise, the entire supply chain is affected by a country.However, mainland China should still strengthen the speed of openness, because opening is the best way to counter Western plugging.But opening up does not necessarily bring reform. Reform and opening up have become dual -track, and the speed may not be the same.

As for globalization, traditional cross -containful goods trade will slow down, but the number and importance of service trade will increase.The importance of digital economy and digital currencies will increase in the next 10 years.Especially after the Hong Kong National Security Law passed, if the United States sanctioned the Bank of Hong Kong, Hong Kong would lose its status to lose its financial center. At this time, China's promotion of digital currencies will strengthen the efforts of U.S. financial control.The currency war may be another battlefield.

Unless there is a huge change in, this should be an image of US -China relations within 10 years.How to respond to Taiwan depends on the wisdom of the governor.

(The author is professor of the Department of Political Department of Soochow University)