If the United States' newly modified foreign direct product rules in the United States, if the official implementation of Huawei, will inevitably have an impact on the global semiconductor supply chain. Wei Shaojun, the director of the Tsinghua University Microelectronics Research Institute, believes that semiconductors are the most thorough global industry and it is difficult to decide.If the industrial ecological balance is broken, there will be no winners between China and the United States.Wei Shaojun also proposed that in order to deal with the supply chain adjustment that may occur in the global semiconductor industry, it should be planned early, and it is felt that China's semiconductor industry will show a very different look in the next three to five years.
According to the China News Agency, Wei Shaojun, who is also the chief of the special technical chief of the nuclear high -funded high -funded and major special technical technical, pointed out that the United States has used national power to curb the development of other companies, and it is not allowed to develop better in other countries. This is a science and technology bullying.Not only does China oppose, the industry in the United States and other countries and regions in the world does not agree.
The newly revised foreign direct product rules in the United States stipulate that Huawei and all its subsidiaries use chip products produced by devices listed in the US business control list, even if they are produced outside the United States, they must be regulated by rules.This means that TSMC, SMIC, and Hua Honghongli can not be Huawei foundry.
Wei Shaojun believes that the United States' control of Huawei's implementation is still in the cushioning period. Once it is really implemented, it will have an impact on the global industrial chain.Restricting any chip products that use American technology to sell to Huawei also means that the right to deprive many participants on the value chain from Huawei to obtain returns from Huawei, which will inevitably cause anger.
However, China and the United States are not so easy to decoupling.Wei Shaojun said that semiconductor is the most thorough global industry. The United States is the world's largest exporter of semiconductor products. Taiwan is the world's largest semiconductor foundry industry. The mainland is the world's largest chip market.The semiconductor industry has its own characteristics and plays a very important role in the global industrial chain.After the global industrial ecological balance is broken, there will be no winners between China and the United States, and it takes a long time to re -establish this balance.
He also believes that the semiconductor industry technology and industry are inseparable. If technology is decoupled, it means that the industry is decoupled and economic decoupled. This is unbearable in China and the United States. The cost of the United States is even greater.Even if the U.S. government has made up their minds, American companies may not be determined.Even if American companies have made up their minds, it will take decades, and it will pay hundreds of trillion dollars.
The epidemic in 2020 also affects the semiconductor industry and will lead to changes in the supply chain.Wei Shaojun believes that for China, due to the recovery of the global semiconductor market in the fourth quarter of last year, China has more orders in the first quarter, starting with sufficient construction, and limited influence of the industry.
In the long run, the epidemic has a profound impact on the semiconductor industry.Wei Shaojun said that due to the restrictions on international logistics due to the epidemic, some semiconductors provided by the outside world needed to be provided locally, so it would promote the expansion of the domestic semiconductor industry in China.However, the growth rate of China's semiconductor industry in 2020 will be reduced, and the growth rate is expected to be a single digit.In the next few years, the global semiconductor supply chain will not be reorganized, but adjustments are inevitable.
Wei Shaojun believes that after decades of development in the semiconductor industry in China, it has made great progress, but insufficient R & D investment is a clear constraint.Since 2008, the Chinese chip industry has less than one -fifth of the Intel company's annual R & D investment, which needs to attract our attention.
In the field of chip design, Chinese enterprises have a good ability and have developed some international first -class enterprises. In the field of equipment, although there are still shortcomings, the gap between other equipment is constantly narrowing except for the most advanced equipment.Wei Shaojun said that the situation will be very different after three to five years.
Wei Shaojun believes that improving the ecology of the semiconductor industry for shortcomings is a very important task.For changes in the global supply chain in the future, prepare early, and cope with the idea of increasing investment and promoting market -oriented allocation resources.
He believes that localization is not the ultimate goal of the development of the semiconductor industry.It is impossible for any country to realize the localization of all aspects of the semiconductor industry chain. It is not necessary. More importantly, the supply chain is safe, not lsquo; stuck neck rsquo;.
