(April 2nd, San Francisco International Airport in California California. Figure/Vision China)
Global Aviation Industry Global Raiders under the New Crown Echizer
Reporter/Cao Ran
Send 2020.6.01 Total Issue 949 China News Weekly
From remote states in central United States to Australian desert, more than 16,000 civil aviation passenger planes are parked on airports around the world.Some of their models are permanently sealed and grounded, and some of the airlines they have served have fallen, and the rest are mostly brewing tens of thousands of layoffs.
Prior to the emergence of the epidemic, the civil aviation industry affected by the downside of the global economy has been fully rescued, promoting mergers and acquisitions and alliances, cutting costs and unprofitable routes, and selling assets to strengthen non -core businesses such as enhanced cash flow and peel off tourism, catering and other non -core businesses.
The arrival of the epidemic disrupted it all.Not all industries can have solutions to the epidemic.Senior professor of transportation at the University of Hofstra in the United States asked Middot; Paul Middot; Rodrigueer said in an interview with China News Weekly that no one knew how much impact on the entire aviation industry would eventually have.
Since March 2020, at least 5 European and American airlines have applied for bankruptcy, including Australia's second largest airline Virgin Australia.The three flag -loading airlines in Africa and South America are also facing the same crisis.Ryan Aviation President Olery bluntly stated that there will be more closure in the future.
On March 9, the International Aviation Transport Association (IATA) predicted that the civil aviation industry would reduce the income of $ 113 billion due to the epidemic.A month later, the predicted data became $ 314 billion.This means that the total revenue of the global civil aviation industry in 2020 will decrease 55 % year -on -year.The report also pointed out that if there is no global resumption in the third quarter, the data will rise further.
When regular passengers no longer have aviation demand
For the first time, Rodrigue felt the calamity facing the global aviation industry in early March.The well -known transportation expert who lives in New York originally scheduled to fly to Europe to participate in multiple international aviation academic conferences in the first half of the year.However, after the Italian and Spanish epidemic gradually became severe, many American airlines have reduced the operation of cross -Great Western routes.On March 11, US President Trump's prohibition cut off civil aviation passenger services between the United States and Europe.
At that time, many civil aviation operators did not realize the seriousness of the crisis.Based on the 2001 incident in 2001 and the experience of the civil aviation industry V -shaped rebound after the SARS epidemic in 2003, most major airlines only announced that they had to fly for one month, and planned to resume work after April to summer.The stock god Buffett is also continuing to buy and hold stocks of the four major US airlines.
However, the reality facing the aviation industry is that it is not that you want to fly, but there is a need for passengers.Rodrigueer told China News Weekly.In March, he had discovered the signs of the decline in the civil aviation industry: While sending emails to notify flights to cancel the airline company, the organizers of the International Conference also sent emails to inform the meeting that they would be held online.
Regardless of whether they are voluntary or forced, major industrial and commercial companies in the world have supported employees to work remotely since March. The conferences were held online. Residents of European and American countries were isolated at home.In April, a number of European and American business giants such as Facebook said that conditions for conditions will allow unlimited time and live at home.
These people used to be a typical regular passenger. Their conferences and business travel are the basis for survival by civil aviation.Of the 7.6 billion people around the world, only 3 % are flying frequently.In the UK, 15 % of frequent passengers consume 70 % of the flight market.
When the remote office becomes the norm in the post -epidemic era, whether the frequent passengers will return to the analysis of the passenger aircraft, there is a contradictory situation.A survey by the University of California Los Angeles shows that even if self -isolation measures are canceled, more than 60 % of aviation travelers may not be temporarily traveling for the time being.A report from the Global Commercial Travel Association states that most business passengers hope to restart aviation travel in the next six months.
At least at least at the end of May, the global civil aviation industry has not showed a sign of large -scale resumption.The daily load of the European and American civil aviation market is only about 5 % of the same period last year.In February, 25,000 civil aviation passenger planes around the world were serving normally.By March, only 13,000 passenger planes were operating, and more than 15,000 passenger planes stopped the field around the world.The number of out -of -field passenger planes in April and May increased by hundreds of more than March.
High -level Southwest Airlines predicts in an interview with the media that this situation may last for several years, but airlines have no abundant funds.Passenger planes that do not bring profits, but they need to be maintained, maintained, and clean regularly. Each time, the engine, testing system, and cleaning are needed to ensure the state of the aircraft.
These expenses are called fixed expenses.For a airline, its debt, depreciation fee and other fixed expenses and quasi -fixed expenses such as the maintenance costs, administrative expenses, and employee salary account for 49 % of the total expenditure.Essence
According to IATA estimates, the total global civil aviation industry revenue in the second quarter of 2020 was about $ 67 billion, a decrease of 68 % year -on -year.Because less than 10 % of the flights maintain operation, the global civil aviation industry does not have a decrease of 70 %; but even if there are large -scale layoffs, the fixed fixed expenses will only reduce 33 %, and the total fixed expenses and fixed expenses reached 63 billion US dollars.Essence
One year ago, taxes and expenses were deducted, and the global civil aviation industry still received a profit of $ 7 billion in the second quarter.But in the second quarter of this year, the civil aviation industry faced a loss of $ 39 billion.Because the book funds of various airlines also include a passenger ticket fee of 35 billion U.S. dollars, IATA comprehensive calculations can be concluded that the global civil aviation cash flow in the second quarter of 2020 decreased by 61 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to the total revenue of the industry last year's total revenue last yearOne -tenth.
When the data is transferred to the head of the specific company, even the largest airlines in Europe and the United States cannot be supported.Southwest Airlines, which has been profitable for 40 years, currently has a daily net loss of about 30 million US dollars, and USA, which has more debt, plans to reduce the daily loss to $ 50 million next month.On April 4, President Bastian, Panmei, said in an email sent to employees that the airline was burned more than 60 million US dollars a day.
Citi Bank estimates that for the three largest aviation groups, the three largest aviation groups, the three largest aviation groups, the IAG (British Airlines), French Airlines Group, and Hansha, will increase their net debt ratio to 3.5 times, 7.7 times and 7.7 times and respectively.12.4 times.
Open Source Self -rescue
Facing the dilemma, airlines have layoffs and reduced the fleet. Only IAG Group plans to lay off 12,000 people, accounting for a quarter of the total number of employees.However, this can only be saved, cannot open source, nor can it further reduce accurate fixed expenses.Only by allowing passenger planes to reduce the loss caused by stopping the field.
Passenger reform is the only way at present.Driven by the epidemic, the global aviation cargo volume rose by 4.8 % in the first quarter of this year, but because of the large -scale suspension of civil aviation passenger aircraft, the passenger aircraft cargo compartment could not be used.Price increased.Therefore, some airlines chose to remove the cabin seats for large wide -body passenger aircraft to fly and ship the shipping shift.
Among the international mainstream airlines, United Airlines has launched passenger -changing flights on March 28, using Boeing 777 and Boeing 787 passenger planes to transport supplies in China and the United States.In April, the Boeing 777 passenger aircraft that demolished the economy class seats transported the mask between China and Canada.During the same period, Hansha Airlines Airbus A330 passenger aircraft running passenger cargo renovation routes, and its technology company has also begun to reform the A380 passenger aircraft.
However, the customer's reform also faces some realistic picksWar.Even if the cabin seat is removed, because the load -bearing capacity of the cabin floor is limited, and all the goods need to be moved out of the narrow cabin door. The above -mentioned seemingly large wide -body passenger aircraft cannot actually load the same weight as the same weight as the same -level cargo aircraft.
At present, Hansha operates up to 49 a week of passenger reforms modified by large wide -body passenger aircraft, and the average flight can be equipped with 30 tons of goods per flight.The world's largest full -cargo machine loading is 250 tons, and the loading capacity of large -scale full -scale machines is generally used in about 100 tons.
In addition, customer reform also requires a higher time cost.Hanksha's A330 passenger plane takes two weeks for removing seats and modified cabins. Some intermediate service providers need to be completed for more than one month.
Another open source method is the idea of hitting its own aircraft.Reuters pointed out that whether the aircraft company can survive the cold winter depends to a large extent on the planned assets.In addition to the borrowing of aircraft as a guarantee, mainstream airlines such as United Airlines and Southwest Airlines have begun to negotiate after -sales leases. The assets involved are more than 20 passenger planes.
After -sales leases, that is, the airline sells its own passenger aircraft, and then continues to operate these passenger aircraft in the actual operation by leasing. This method can quickly recover funds and fill the gap.Taking the after -sales rent -return plan of Southwest Airlines as an example, selling 20 Boeing 737 and 737mAX passenger planes can make a profit of $ 800 million, and the rent is about $ 300,000 per aircraft per month.
American aviation analyst John Middot; Strickland speculates that many airlines will also integrate business models and try different things.At present, the factories owned by the airlines and other airlines have begun to produce masks.However, Rodrigue emphasized that in the past historical proof proved that airlines focused on the main business to avoid getting into a deeper crisis.
Earlier, the British monarch Airlines and Thomas Middot; Cook Airlines closed down in 2017 and 2019, respectively, which are related to the close binding of the airline and tourism groups.In the context of economic downturn, the decline of tourism has fallen down the airline that has become a vassal.Even in the current situation, there are many aviation industry that the peeling of non -main business has always been the direction of the aviation industry reform and will not change due to the new crown epidemic.
At the beginning of the outbreak, Reuters quoted analysts that the epidemic would promote the scattered European aviation market to the American -style merger, and finally three or five airlines occupied most of the market share.However, in the context of the three major European aviation groups in crisis, large -scale layoffs, and reducing fleets, smaller European airlines not only were not acquired by large groups, but began to return to state -owned.
The Italian government announced this month that in order to save Italian air, it has decided to invest 3 billion euros to nationalize it, which is equivalent to half of the government aid by the country's airline in the past decade.Earlier, the German government also proposed to acquire 25 % of the Hansha Group for financial assistance in exchange for controlling equity.
The U.S. government issued a salary subsidy of $ 25 billion to the ten major airlines and huge loans of each family.
But Hansha Airlines President Karlsten Middot; Schberg responded fiercely to this open source method, saying that Ning could apply for bankruptcy and did not accept the government's decision -making power.Its concern is unreasonable.The Italian government has demanded that Airlines reduced nearly one -fifth of the fleet after receiving government investment and replaced its aviation alliance.Reuters also reported that the German government may be able to prevent Hansha from the reorganization plan of tens of thousands of people after holding Hansha.
There are also voices to affirm the government's intervention.Some environmental organizations have pointed out that the government can take advantage of this opportunity to propose an additional energy -saving and emission reduction requirements for the development of airlines to promote the realization of carbon emission targets.Dan Middot, Director of Aviation Affairs of the International Circuit Council; Lutherford said that if the government wants to deal with the dual challenges of the new crown epidemic and climate change, then it is now an opportunity.
The A380 is over, and the Boeing 747 is over
One day in late April, Matthew suddenly received an email from the mentor: his scientific research project was suspended, and there was no possibility of restart in the short term.Matthew from the United States is a doctoral student funded by British aviation engine giants Rores Middot; Royce (Rorro).In the past two years, he has been participating in the research and development of electric and motor engineering jointly carried out by the electric passenger engine project jointly carried out by Luo Luo and Airbus.
I did not expect that the impact of the civil aviation industry will spread so quickly to us, and even change the speed of human scientific and technological progress.Matthew's emotion on China News Weekly.And all of this stems from the redefrity of the demand for passenger planes in the post -epidemic era in the civil aviation industry.
Since March, major airlines around the world have been adjusted to operate large -scale operations. The reform of the reform is an old model and a large wide -body airliner. U.S. Airlines alone announced that there are 137 passenger planes with retirement and sealing 6 models.
Old passenger planes have poor economy and high requirements for maintenance. They have always been the object of gradually elimination of various airlines.But on the other hand, the airlines also grounded and retired large -scale wide -body aircraft.
Compared with the narrow body machine of about 200 people, there can be as many as 3,500 passengers with large wide -body functions. The longer range can also bring a better passenger experience.Some experts point out why large wide -body machines were quickly eliminated due to the epidemic, and some experts pointed out that this is related to the current law of re -work in the world.
As the re -union is carried out in China and regions, global blockade is unprepared, and the needs of international routes operated by wide -body machines will be hovering at a low level for a long time.IATA's analysis report predicts that international passengers' demand for long -distance aviation travel can only return to the status around 2012 and 2013, that is, the lowest level of long -distance aviation travel in the past ten years.
Therefore, in the next five to ten years, the existing wide -body machine will be suspended for a long time, and high costs will be generated without profitability.On the contrary, short -distance routes operated by narrow -body machines and smaller branch passenger aircraft have become the heavy head of airline income.
In the context of a major loss of all major airlines in the United States, Tianxi Airlines, which has 484 branch passenger planes and specially carried by the David Chief, released the first quarter financial report in May. Although the revenue has decreased significantly, the company’sThe small planes actually achieved a profit of more than $ 30 million.
As far as the cost of the aircraft operating unit in the epidemic period is concerned, wide -body machines are also the least cost -effective.After resumption, the aircraft company must leave a safe seat space for passengers, which makes the sale seats of the passenger plane accounting for only about 60 % of the total number of seats.American frontier airlines once asked passengers to pay for air seats, and corrected after being criticized by public opinion and government.Other airlines choose to increase the cost caused by itself, or incorporate the cost of growth into the fare in disguise.
Director -General Janiak believes that if this policy continues for a long time, it will definitely change the way the airline operation.According to the calculation of IAATA, the guarantee of the safety seat space will increase the operating cost of each ticket to the narrow body by 50 %, the wide bodies rose by 67 %, and the cost of supporting passenger aircraft will increase by more than 100 %.The operating cost of the wide body machine was much higher than the narrow body and the branch passenger aircraft.
For example, a standard 168 narrow -body aircraft A320 passenger aircraft, the original operating cost of each seat was 86 US dollars, rose to $ 129 in the current special measures;Boeing 777 passenger planes had a cost of $ 202 per seat, an increase of 67 %, as high as 337 US dollars.
In this context, Airbus A380, the largest model and the highest operating cost, has become a hot potato that major airlines are anxious to discard.A380's largest operator UAE Airlines has canceled some of the A380 orders to Airbus.Hansha Airlines is ready to sell 6 A380 to Airbus, which is close to half of its A380 fleet.France and Etihad AirlinesChoose to retire directly or fly permanently all A380.
We all know that the A380 is over and the Boeing 747 is over.Emirates President Tim Middot; Clark said in an interview with Abu Dhabi in early May.
As the world's only wide -body manufacturer, Boeing and Airbus are facing tremendous pressure.Airbus announced one -third of production. The company's delayed delivery of 60 passenger planes in the first quarter, and no transfer was seen in the second quarter.More than 6,000 Airbus employees have been at home, and Luo Luo, the engine partner of Airbus, announced that it will lay off at least 9,000, accounting for 18 % of its total number of employees worldwide.
After Air Airlines ’flight air crash in March 2019, Boeing's narrow -body aircraft focused on the 737MAX passenger aircraft failed to deliver customers due to safety air service. At present, there have been more than 400 backlog inventory.Today, Boeing is facing a crisis of wide -body machines, and the planned output of 787 passenger aircraft has reduced by more than 30 %.In the first quarter of this year, Boeing orders were reduced by 147 passenger planes.
Like the Civil Aviation Passenger Transport Industry, the crisis has also caused the original large -scale mergers and acquisitions in the aviation industry.Originally, Airbus, Boeing, Brazil's aviation industry (Pakistani Industry) and Bombardier were known as the four international passenger aircraft manufacturers, of which Airbus had acquired Bombardier's branch passenger aircraft project in 2018.
According to the plan before the epidemic, Airbus will further acquire Bombardier this year, while Boeing will complete the merger and acquisition of Pakistani Industry, allowing international passenger plane giants to change four.Boeing and Airbus have also obtained the best -selling passenger aircraft in the global market to make up for their shortcomings outside the production of wide -body and narrow body machines.In the future of the weak body market, the merger and acquisition are particularly important.
However, on April 26, Boeing announced the suspension of the acquisition of Pakistani Industry, and Pakistani Industrial persons subsequently stated that this should be related to the recent financial situation of Boeing.Calkhon called on the Trump administration to provide funding assistance to Boeing because it involved a livelihood of millions of people in upstream and downstream.
The predicament of Boeing and Airbus is only a microcosm of the secondary disaster of the civil aviation industry.The IATA analysis report states that the decline of civil aviation passenger transport will cause a wide range of economic crises. If the number of civil aviation passenger transport will decrease by 38 % throughout the year, 25 million upstream and downstream industrial positions will face unemployment risks.
Karkhorn bluntly said at the Boeing Shareholders Conference on April 27: It is even difficult to predict when the crisis of the entire aviation industry is bottomed out.Two days later, Guillaume Faury also said that the current crisis of the aviation industry is still in the early stage, and now it is predicted to be early.
