Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily News
U.S. President Trump recently announced the cancellation of the special treatment of Hong Kong in the United States -Hong Kong Policy Law as a countermeasure for China to pass the Hong Kong National Security Law; although the US government will implement it in the futureThe Hong Kong economy can be said to be worse.
China and Xinduan Pneumonia have already severely damaged the Hong Kong economy. In 2019, Hong Kong's economic growth rate fell 2.8%and 3.0%in the third and fourth quarters, respectively, with a negative growth of 1.2%throughout the year.Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the first quarter declined by 8.9%, which is the worst performance in history.The import and export trade also shrinks severely. In 2019, the total trade volume fell by 5%; the first quarter of 2020 declined by 10%.The biggest shock to Hong Kong's economy should be the collapse of investment. In 2019, Hong Kong attracted outsiders' investment in 45%, the foreign investment amount declined by 41%, and the scale of securities investment fell by half.
When Hong Kong returned to China in 1997, GDP was about one -fifth of China. At that time, the Chinese financial system was fragile. Hong Kong successfully connected this role, creating the glory of Hong Kong.At present, Hong Kong's GDP is about 2%of China, and China's financial market is also improving. For example, Shenzhen and Shanghai have gradually have the ability to replace Hong Kong. Once Hong Kong loses its special status, its status in the world's third largest financial center will shake.
Hong Kong is one of the most free economies in the world. Free trade ports and open financial markets. Coupled with Hong Kong's low tax burden, many multinational enterprises have set up operation headquarters in Hong Kong to store funds in Hong Kong so that they can be scheduled to schedule;Taiwanese businessmen, especially electronic foundries, and Taiwanese businessmen, which are mainly domestic demand in the mainland, regarded Hong Kong as a fund scheduling center.However, after the incidents were sent to China before, many Taiwanese and foreign capital evacuated from Hong Kong. If the economic status of Hong Kong has changed and the risk of moving the funds in Hong Kong has increased again, Hong Kong will continue to lose blood in the future.Center, this will increase operating costs.
In terms of trade, the United States cancels the special status of Hong Kong. The United States may be compared to Hong Kong's economic and trade benefits in accordance with Mainland China, including tariffs on China, and high -tech products import and export control measures are suitable for Hong Kong.It has a significant impact on Hong Kong.Of course, if the United States impose tariffs on Hong Kong, mainland China will also fight back, and also impose tariffs on the US exports to Hong Kong products; Hong Kong, which used to rent a tax paradise in the past, may instead become the main battlefield of the US -China tariff war.
Hong Kong is the Logistics Transfer Center in Asia. In the future, if Hong Kong loses its special status, it will affect the development of transportation, logistics and warehousing in Hong Kong, and will also have an impact on the freight and logistics of Taiwanese businessmen.In addition, 13%of Taiwan exports are concentrated in Hong Kong, most of which are re -export trade. Hong Kong's triangle trade that has received orders, mainland production, and exports to the world is very enthusiastic.In particular, Hong Kong is the main point of re -exportation in the global electronics industry. It is the world's largest stagnant circuit and the world's second largest computer parts and video recorders.For a long time, Taiwan's electronics industry, especially the semiconductor industry, has been transferred through Hong Kong; changes in the situation in Hong Kong will affect the convenience of Taiwan's re -export trade, which will affect exports.
The US -China trade war and new crown pneumonia caused the supply chain to withdraw from China. Changes in Hong Kong may lead to changes in capital flow and the movement of re -export trade.Therefore, in addition to attracting mainland Taiwanese businessmen to return to Taiwan, the government should also actively attract funds to activate the Taiwan financial market.However, because the financial market in Taiwan is far less open than Hong Kong, there are more financial exchanges on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. The large -scale opening up of the previous two sides was the early harvest plan of the service industry of the Cross -Strait Economic Cooperation Architecture (ECFA). Taiwan must be gradually weakened from Hong Kong FinanceThe results of functional gain must start with its own financial opening.
Taiwan also has the opportunity to attract Hong Kong merchants, foreign businessmen in Hong Kong, and professional talents in Hong Kong to develop in Taiwan.In addition to finance, logistics, wholesale and retail, etc., it can also strengthen investment promotion for related fields such as asset communication manufacturing and services, professional technology; especially involved in security, big data, and community websites in Hong Kong, but not allowed to be allowed in China to be allowed to be allowed in ChinaSensitive business (such as Facebook and Google). In the future, with the changes in the Hong Kong National Security Law and the special economic status, Hong Kong has no advantage, and Taiwan should seize this opportunity.
