Yu Zeyuan: There is no winner in China and the United States

Ji Yan Chunqiu

In response to the National People's Congress of China passed the National Security Law of the Hong Kong version of the National People's Congress, US President Trump announced the anti -countermeasures against China the day before yesterday.The relationship is suspended as the entry of Chinese students who have damaged the national security of the United States, and strengthened the supervision of Chinese companies listed on the US exchange.

These measures marked the upgrading of the Sino -US fighting law, and the relationship between the United States and Hong Kong will also change substantially.But in all fairness, this round of countermeasures in the United States has not exceeded the expectations of the outside world, and even public opinion said that the United States' countermeasures are lighter, and the impact on Hong Kong and China is limited.

The United States fully cancels Hong Kong's preferential treatment as an independent tariff area, which means that the United States will levy the same tariffs as China exported goods as China.This will weaken Hong Kong's value to China, and will also limit Hong Kong to high -tech products with sensitive technology from the United States.

Hong Kong's manufacturing industry currently accounts for only about 1%of its GDP (GDP).The goods produced and exported to the US market each year in Hong Kong only account for less than 2 % of the local manufacturing industry in Hong Kong, with a value of only 3.7 billion Hong Kong dollars (S $ 675 million), accounting for less than 0.1 % of Hong Kong's total exports.The United States has a large surplus to exports of goods in Hong Kong. The United States' raising tariffs on a short -term impact on Hong Kong's economy is not great.

In the long run, the impact of US sanctions on Hong Kong is whether it has led to the decline in the outflow of capital and overseas investment in Hong Kong, and shakes Hong Kong's international business and financial center status.

But for the United States, sanctioning Hong Kong is like playing a seven injuries, and it will inevitably be damaged.Hong Kong is the largest area of bilateral commodity trade in the United States. It is also the third largest export market in the United States, the fourth largest beef export market, and the seventh largest agricultural product export market.About 85,000 Americans have lived in Hong Kong for a long time.

At the same time, the nine of the 152 licensed banks in Hong Kong and the five of the 18 restricted licensed banks are US -funded institutions. US capital is also an important direct investment source for Hong Kong's financial industry, import and export, wholesale and retail trade. The United StatesMajor interests in Hong Kong will restrict the strength and time of US sanctions on Hong Kong.

From the perspective of Chinese official determination, no matter how much Hong Kong is affected, the Hong Kong version of the national security law is imperative, otherwise the Hong Kong chaos will not only end, but the image and reputation of the Chinese government will be seriously frustrated.

For the impact of the sanctions that Hong Kong may be subject to, as long as the Central Government of China and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government continued to implement Hong Kong people's governing Hong Kong and highly autonomous policies to maintain the existing social system, the level of rule of law and business environment in Hong Kong, Hong Kong's attraction to global capital will not disappear.EssenceThe current dilemma of Hong Kong is mainly from the political level. Hong Kong's traditional advantages and special status will not fundamentally change due to the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law.

As for sanctioning China by terminating the relationship with the World Health Organization, its evidence and logic are somewhat puzzling, and it is difficult to get support from most countries including American allies.

The United States restricts some Chinese students studying in the United States to study in the United States, which may weaken the willingness of Chinese students to study in the United States as a whole and promote them to study in other countries.This is not good news for American universities that want to recruit Chinese students to ensure school funding, and it will also weaken the US advantageous service industry.

The United States restricts Chinese officials traveling to the United States or frozen their assets in the United States, which not only has no effect on the Chinese people, but may be considered a good thing that is conducive to China's anti -corruption.

Since the anti -repair storm occurred in Hong Kong last June, the continuous chaos has shaken the foundation of the rule of law that Hong Kong is proud of, and the status of the business and financial center of the Oriental Pearl has gradually sank, becoming a place where politics is handsome.Today, the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law has made Hong Kong a new battlefield for China and the United States. This is definitely a misfortune for the Hong Kong economy and the Hong Kong people.But in the context of the Chinese and American games, this unfortunate is almost destined to be unavoidable.

From a larger historical background, the Sino -US game is also destined to be unavoidable.As the world's first and second -largest economies, the scope of the influence of the US -China game will inevitably affect the world. Is this not the misfortune of the two countries and the people of the world?

Therefore, both China and the United States and the two advantages are hurt. Although it is a long -term talk, it is still worth thinking about the decision makers of the two countries.After all, the Sino -US fighting law will not have a complete winner. Finding new cooperation on the basis of seeking common groundwork will meet the fundamental interests of the two countries.