Chen Hongbin
Due to the Coronary Virus epidemic, countries have repeatedly pressed the suspension of economic activities, resulting in great reduction in oil demand around the world. Oil prices have declined all the way, and even recently have an unprecedented negative value in the international oil market.
Although this abnormal situation is just a special phenomenon, weak oil prices are obviously not expected to change in the near future.This has caused unprecedented pressure on many shale oil companies in the United States.
The Organization of Organization (OPEC, referred to as oil alliances) and non -oil alliances such as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, headed by Saudi Arabia, have started working together since 2016 to coordinate the pace of global oil and gas supply issues.This move is called OPEC+.
On March 20 this year, the oil price fell below the $ 20 mark per barrel. After a new low in 18 years, OPEC+on April 12 will reduce the daily yield of 9.7 million barrels of crude oil to reach an agreement.This directly caused the above -mentioned irrational market conditions.
The international community began to develop shale oil mining technology in the 1990s.In addition to the United States, Russia and some Latin American countries have tried this, but because other countries cannot obtain technological breakthroughs, only the United States has begun commercial mining since 2005.The large amount of mining of shale oil and gas has greatly enhanced the US oil and gas production capacity, and thus has fundamentally changed the global oil and gas production pattern.
During the last round of oil prices, from 2015 to 2016, due to the pressure of failure to withstand oil prices, more than 100 American shale oil companies were in a state of bankruptcy.The shale oil companies survived in that blow have also strengthened their price competitiveness, which greatly increased the oil production capacity of the United States. In 2018, it surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia in 2018, becoming the world's number one oil producer.This situation is widely called shale oil/gas revolution.At that time, the daily output of crude oil in the United States jumped to 15.31 million barrels, while Saudi Arabia was only 12.28 million barrels, and Russia had only 11.43 million barrels.
However, since then, the global oil market has been weak, and the survival pressure of many crosses in the United States has continued to rise.The main origin of shale oil in the United States is Texas. According to a survey conducted by the local federal reserve bank in March, the survival line of local shale oil companies is that oil prices must not be less than $ 30 per barrel, and the current market market.It is greatly lower than this standard.This is still in terms of existing production conditions. If you want to develop new oil wells, because a large amount of investment is to be increased, oil prices must be more than $ 50 per barrel.
Prior to this, White Petroleum Corporation, the major US shale oil companies, couldn't hold it, and announced the application for bankruptcy on April 1.Even this listed company can't go on, and the embarrassment of other shale oil companies can be imagined.
According to experts, only the oil giants such as Exxison and Shishelon can still be supported.If the Trump administration cannot shot in time, more than half of the shale oil companies are expected to fall into the dilemma of bankruptcy.In recent years, American companies that produce shale oil and gas have always been in the wind.In 2017, there were 24 bankruptcy companies, and in 2018, it increased to 28, and it increased to 42 last year. This year, more companies will join this ranks.
In order to cope with this unprecedented dilemma, many shale oil companies in the United States have suggested to the railway committee in charge of the production and transportation in charge of Texang to adjust the oil output quota.Because in the 1970s, the oil and gas industry in Dezhou had made such adjustments.The committee is currently conducting emergency consultations with relevant enterprises.Those companies with stronger price adaptability obviously want to eliminate a large number of enterprises that cannot survive through this move, thereby expanding their market share.Those companies that are unable to survive, of course, oppose this adjustment, so the current consultation cannot make progress.
The daily output of crude oil in the United States was only 6.78 million barrels on the occasion of 2008. In just 10 years, it turned over more than 10 years. It has become the boss of the world, and the oil and gas industry in Dezhou has become the state's pillar industry in one fell swoop.The employment positions directly created reached 360,000, and last year's taxes increased to 16.3 billion US dollars.
The low price of oil prices has not only increased the local unemployed army team, but also has a strong impact on the local financial market.Because the amount of financing of various oil and gas companies before is a large number.If oil and gas companies will declare bankruptcy one after another, it will inevitably increase bank bad debts.As early as the mid -1980s, local banks had triggered a financial crisis due to a large number of loans.
In addition to bank loans, the corporate bond market is currently facing tremendous pressure.Because many shale oil companies have issued a relatively poor High Yield bonds, they have raised a lot of funds through this channel.But in the face of the continuous exacerbation of the epidemic in the United States, investors are far away to such bonds in order to ensure the security of funds.If a shale oil company cannot pay bonds one after another, it will inevitably have a strong shock to the bond market, and may even have a chain reaction to the global financial market.
To this end, the Fed has emerged in an emergency statement that if the above situation appears, it will buy these bonds.However, whether this can hold the market of the market as much as possible and stop the negative chain reaction, it remains to be observed.However, in any case, the global desire to get out of the downturn as soon as possible must work together to fight against the epidemic.Only by defeating the epidemic as soon as possible can we effectively stop the economic decline, restore the normal demand for oil and gas, and fundamentally reverse the irrational weakness of oil prices.
The author is an associate researcher at the Shanghai International Institute of International Institute of International China
