The coronary virus epidemic not only pose a huge threat to human life, but also poisons the most important bilateral relations in the world, namely Sino -US relations.In the world, these two major powers are most needed to provide leadership roles for the world. When dealing with crown diseases, people not only did not see the cooperation between the two countries, but instead watched the spiral of the conflict between the two countries.
Evan Osnos, a former reporter in New York Passenger Magazine, posted a post on January 6, quoting senior White House officials that US -China relations are in a state of free fall.But today's Sino -US relations can be described as more than free falls.This landing body not only did not have any obstacles, but got huge thrust from both sides, and fell to the slut trap that China and the United States did not want to see at the fastest speed.
Although the coronary virus has a strong infectious power, if the resistance measures are proper, the virus is still controllable; but if the Sino -US conflict is out of control, once a war occurs, no one can predict that it will bring to the two countries and the world.Disaster.What is even more pessimistic is that today people are more and more afraid of crown disease, but they seem to be willing to watch the rapid deterioration of Sino -US relations, as if they have nothing to do with themselves; others even intentionally or unintentionally promote this process.
As far as the relationship between the two nuclear powers is concerned, it is not even worse to not be like today's Sino -US relations.During the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union, although the two countries could perform nuclear deterrence, they still conducted effective cooperation between the two countries in the public health field to jointly promote the vaccination of smallpox vaccination, which eventually eliminated the intense infectious diseases of smallpox.What about Sino -US relations today?
Only politics, no policies, or politics have completely replaced the policy.Both countries have internal politics, and the relationship between the two countries must be affected by internal politics.However, if there is no effective policy to resolve the problems caused by politics, the politics of the two countries will move towards the worst form, that is, war.As the Austrian militaryist Klazewitz said, war is another form of politics.
Sino -US relations have not been smooth since the establishment of diplomatic relations, and they have encountered great difficulties or even crises, including the US sanctions on China after the Tiananmen incident in 1989, the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, the bombing of the Chinese Embassy of Belgrade in 1998.2001 in the South China Sea collision incident, etc.
However, in the past, the leadership of the two countries had an overall concept of Sino -US relations, that is, maintaining work relationships to the minimum, and found cooperation on this basis.With this overall situation, although there is also politics from time to time, there will always be a policy of resolving the crisis caused by politics.The two countries have reached significant cooperation on the global financial crisis and the 2014 Ebola epidemic.
But today, this overall situation no longer exists.Before President Trump had no scientific survey results, he bite the coronary virus from the new coronary virus research institute and said that the virus was the Chinese virus.Senior officials in the United States have always called the new coronal virus.The pushing behavior of American politicians and government officials has led to China's war wolf -style diplomacy, while the United States returned to teeth.This way of interaction has led the tensions of the two countries to surge.
When diplomats have become politicians
After politics has replaced policies, conflicts will inevitably replace diplomacy.Today, in addition to a few more rational diplomats in China and the United States, almost all diplomats have become politicians, and all diplomats have become politics.No one is doing any policies, and foreign policy has long been a past.Most of them do on both sides are the tricks, or traps, or conspiracy that the other party is regarded by the other party as the other party.
This is not only in the field of diplomacy, the whole society is the case.As far as the United States is concerned, as the former US ambassador to China Baokas said: Everyone knows that everything is being staged is wrong, but no one stands out what hellip; hellip; now in the United States, if anyone wants to wantSaying some rational remarks in China, he (she) will be afraid, and he will be afraid that he will be pulled out and beheaded rsquo;
Although China's leadership is calm, what is the society?Society is full of fanatical nationalism and populism, and there are even more advocating war.People can't see any discussions on the rationality of Sino -US relations. Once a rational voice occurs, it will immediately lead to these fanatical criticism and even curse.
Trump can be said to be the most important typical of the rise of contemporary Western populist politics.Over the years, the political forces of the United States anti -China have been in a state of retrograde, and they have fully mobilized.This time, they used the opportunity of crown disease to gather together, and finally made China instead of crown disease that caused the enemy in the United States.
Of course, the United States does not lack more rational politicians, such as Democratic Presidential candidate Biden, but under the large political environment of populism, Biden can only develop in a hard direction, rather than ease the direction.In fact, on the Chinese issue, Trump and Biden are just competing for who is more harder than anyone.
Chinese leaders cannot say irrational.After the outbreak of the coronary, he worked hard to resist, controlled the epidemic in the shortest time, and turned to international assistance and support.Throughout the epidemic, Chinese senior officials never painted their fingers in other countries, but worked hard to maintain phone calls with senior executives in other countries (at least).However, the rise of nationalism and populism is also an indisputable fact in China.It is also seen that China's bureaucrats and society have not been effectively constrained in venting nationalism and populism.
People also witnessed the rise of the new generation of diplomats of the new generation of nationalist flags in China and the United States and the impact on bilateral relations.American diplomats helped the president to blame China and create various theory of pushing for responsibility, such as the theory of Chinese liability theory of Chinese responsibility theory of Chinese liability theory of Chinese compensation theory.
Although the scientific community still strives to find the root cause of the virus, Matthew Pottinger, a Chinese and deputy national security adviser in the White House, believes that the virus is likely to originate from the Xinyiro Institute.Bo Ming is regarded as a representative of the Policy maker in China in the United States.But it is clear that this generation of diplomats are very different from several generations of diplomats after Dr. Kissinger. They often cannot distinguish their personal emotions from rational distinguished from national interests.Obviously, Bo Ming's unpleasant experience when he used to be a reporter in China in the past was vented on Sino -US relations.
The tough attitude of China and the United States is not limited to the field of diplomatic, but is distributed in a wider range of areas.Because of the freedom of speech, the attitude towards Huaqiang has always existed publicly.But now this tendency is becoming more and more obvious in China.Vice Premier Liu He, the leader of the Chinese and American comprehensive economic dialogue. On May 8th, he paid a phone call with the US trade representative Littichzer and the Minister of Finance Miqin to dialogue on the implementation of the trade agreement on both parties.
However, the English version of the Global Times (May 11) reported that China is likely to abolish the Sino -US trade agreement in the first stage.The article claims that consultants close to trade negotiations have suggested to the central government that China can examine the possibility of abolishing the Sino -US trade agreement, in order to push down and negotiate new agreements with the United States, so that Libra tilted towards China.It is reported that China can have an epidemic on the grounds that the instrumental resistance is difficult to implement the Sino -US trade agreement in the first stage; and China has also evaluated that the United States is no longer able to launch a trade war at this moment.
Although a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately confirmed that China would implement this agreement, the news was like a shocking bomb, which not only detonated the fierce wrestling of China and the United States again, but also caused the outside world to start looking at the prospects of the lighting agreement.The United States rebounded strongly.Trump said that he had no interest in restarting negotiations; he also said that he had no interest in Yiding.Let's see if they will comply with the agreement they signed.Trump also said that China wants to re -negotiate to reach a more favorable agreement for them.
This trend is also manifested in the Editor -in -chief of the Global Times about China's remarks on China.Although this remark does not represent an official position, it also leads to the concern of the United States and the world about China's nuclear policy.
The hardliners on both sides claim to be chasingSeeking their national interests.Although on the surface, the targets of the hardliners on both sides run counter to each other, in fact, both sides are strengthening each other, helping each other, helping each other, and promoting the conflict between China and the United States.If the Sino -US conflict is their established goal, then it; but if this is not their established goals, their words and deeds are just the opposite of their own set goals.
What's more, the politics of both sides already have a very profound social foundation, that is, the increasingly rising nationalist emotions on both sides.A poll issued by US polls YOUGOV on May 13th found that more than two -thirds of the Americans (69%) of the interviewed by the Chinese government believed that the Chinese government should be part or a large responsibility for the transmission of viruses.This poll conducted a survey of 1382 US adults and found that about half (51%) respondents believed that the Chinese government should compensate for state compensation affected by the epidemic.receive punishment.
Specifically, 25%of people want to ban Chinese officials from entering the United States. 32%of people think that the United States should refuse to pay interest for the U.S. Treasury bonds held by China. 33%of them want to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods.People support international sanctions.The recent polls of the polls are consistent with PEW's recent polls; Pipon's polls also show that two -thirds of Americans have a negative cognitive attitude towards China.
Although China does not have a polls like the United States, from the anti -American emotions of hundreds of millions of netizens, the Chinese people's negative attitudes to the United States will not be lower than the United States, and China is also discussing how to punish those aggressive aggressiveAnti -China US officials and other personnel.Except for a few liberals that are regarded as pro -American, not many Chinese people will stand publicly today to discuss Sino -US relations rationally.
The relationship will continue to deteriorate
Can people only watch Sino -US relations fall into the trap of Xunxida?
In reality, if Sino -US relations are to be prevented, there is no hope in the United States.The political environment of nationalism and populism, coupled with election politics, has no conditions in the short term, and promotes the return of politicians to the reason.
Hope on the side of China.Although between society and the middle and lower bureaucratic bureaucracy, undergoing high nationalism and populist emotions, after all, China has a strong leadership group that keeps the current situation with a sober mind.In terms of curbing war and maintaining world peace, China is no longer lacking, and what is missing is confidence.
Although the United States is a provocative party, China must still restrict officials' emotional remarks as before.Diplomacy is not simply venting personal emotions.Confidence comes from rationality, not emotional vent.
China should also believe that the world has the power to maintain peace.If China's own methods are proper, the West that the United States and the Soviet Union once seen during the Cold War cannot be reproduced.In other words, there is no unity and union in the world today.
The United States hopes to create the theory of virus origin in China through intelligence agencies of the Five Eye Alliance (ie, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand), but the intelligence agencies of some member states have expressed disagreement.On the Iraqi issue, the American allies believed the United States and made a big mistake.China is not Iraq, and these countries have no rational stood on the side of the United States.
Europe is no longer Europe during the Cold War.Although there are some practices in Europe on the coronary virus problem, this does not mean that Europe and the United States stand together.On the contrary, unlike the United States, Europe has its own interests independent of the United States. European countries want to establish at least a management relationship with China, and do not want to oppose China.
In fact, the relationship between the United States and its allies can be said to be at the lowest point of history.In this crisis crisis, no American allies have publicly demanded the help and support of the United States. This is the first time that the United States has risen for 100 years.The leadership of the United States in its allies has rapidly declined.
Even in the so -called international survey of the virus, China has reasons to accept countries that are guilty and positive like Australia, but China does not have no power to rely on.The community of scientists in various countries is the power that China can rely on.So far, there is no scientist community in a country. It is found that the virus originated from China, and no scientists believe that the virus is made by artificially.
From the beginning of the virus, Chinese scientists have been paying attention to and studying the origin and diffusion of the virus with scientists from various countries.China can also invite third parties recognized by the United States and China to join the investigation under the structure of the World Health Organization.What China needs is a scientific conclusion, not a political conclusion.
For China, the road that continues to rise is not flat.As far as experience is concerned, the status of the great power does not fall from the sky, but the struggle.But this is not to say that the rise of peace has become impossible, and it can only rise in the fire.Once large -scale conflicts and war occur, no one can ensure that the country can rise from the fire.Although Sino -US relations deteriorate, it is not to say that China and the United States are destined to solve the problems between the two with conflicts.
If China has enough confidence, wisdom, and rationality, it is possible to avoid direct conflicts between the two countries, and even eventually reached the backbone of China and the United States.In such a difficult situation today, this is a difficult problem for a great politician.
(The author is a professor at the National University of Singapore and East Asia)
The article only represents personal point of view
