At first glance, whether from the incidence or the response method of various countries, the 2019 coronary virus disease seems to be a common experience in the world.But now, it is obvious that there are great differences in the response strategies and the results generated by countries.This means that as the world gets rid of the blockade, it will enter another difficult stage: international travel will be severely restricted by Lock-INS.
Tourism, trade and wider travel will change permanently.The overall pattern is unclear, but the confinement is likely to delay the global economic recovery, and at least a small island economy economy relying on short -term international tourists has triggered a new round of crisis.
Today, the strategies of anti -crown disease in various countries can be roughly divided into three categories: thorough eradication, group immunity, or suppress coronary virus before inventing vaccines or treatment methods.
The realization of thorough eradication is the most difficult.New Zealand claims to be realized; and Australia also hopes.This method is most likely to succeed in primitive and relatively remote areas. For example, Nunavut regions in northern Canada have no crown case reports.
In contrast, various reasons will cause some countries to eventually realize the so -called group immunity of epidemiologists.In these places, enough people to survive the virus and survive, and people expect that these people will get a certain degree of virus immunity, so the crown disease will no longer spread like wildfires.
Sweden's technical bureaucrats seem to have chosen to implement group immunity for their people.Japan's official posture is not so clear, but its limited blockade and those who cannot track contact in some cases indicate that group immunity will occur.The Brazilian President calls this strategy as vertical isolation.India, most parts of Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America seem to have embarked on a similar path.If the basic reproduction rate (currently widely used to measure the infectious R0 value) is 2.5, these countries may need 60%of the population disease in order to establish group immunity.If the R0 value is higher, more people are infected and survived to achieve group immunity.In any case, it is estimated that billions of new infection cases will occur.
Although the third type of strategy cannot completely eradicate this infectious disease, it is doing its best to suppress the outbreak of the epidemic.These countries include most parts of the United States, Canada and Europe (except Sweden), and are currently in trouble.Although they have reduced the number of new cases through no differences, economic activities have shrunk by 10%to 25%; now they have entered the long process of suppressing R0.
The experience of South Korea and China shows that with the help of social cooperation and the maintenance of authoritarian authority, the state can quickly identify new infected people, track all contactors, and isolate them until the danger of the disease has passed completely.Some countries are trying to adopt these methods, but in the United States and other developed countries, due to different ability to obtain medical resources, uneven confidence in the government, and abnormally different income gaps, these methods are very likely to achieve completely success.Some residents are unwilling to report symptoms because they are worried about losing their income, taking away from their children, or forced to pay high medical expenses.The number of patients will be high and low.
How will this affect the flow of global personnel and the national economy?
Let's imagine that there is such a New Cook Island.Because of the completely eliminated Coronary virus, the island residents are now appropriately regarded as potential Trojan horses.Anyone who arrives at the plane may be welcomed by the staff wearing a protective service.The staff will escort them to a special isolation area, and all new islanders must wait for the latent period of the virus, and then receive testing.Only the test results are negative can enter the country, and those who are positive for test results will need to be separated for 15 days.Such restrictions and uncertainty will greatly affect the attractiveness of new Cookland.
In the real world, all countries that try to suppress R0 will take similar restrictions on international entry.The cumbersome quarantine, self -isolation and testing rules can be compared with New Cook Island.
In contrast, countries that seeks group immunity will not be afraid of foreign visitors.The Swedes are happy to invite us to enter, including short -term stays.But if the Swedes go to other countries, those countries who want to completely eliminate and suppress the epidemic will not be welcome, because they are afraid of group immuners.After all, group immunity does not eradicate diseases. It only means that the number of patients will be reduced, and the risk of diseases is relatively low, but this is limited to places that have been fully immune.
Short -distance international travel or long -distance travel visits to multiple countries have gone forever.All of us will worry about the results of the wrong positive test, which will cause us to be separated from unnecessary for 15 days.The disinfection of goods and other transportation materials is also a difficult task; this is especially true for countries like New Cookland.
Depending on the degree of immunity given by infections in the past, determining the detection of antibodies may eventually promote the relaxation of some travel restrictions.However, because there is no general vaccination, more stringent restrictions on the flow of personnel may continue, and it may last for a long time.
(Author Peter Boone is the Effective Intervention Chairman of the Economic Performance Center of the London Institute of Economics. Simon Johnson is a professor at the Sloan School of Management of Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Co-chairman of COVID-19 Policy Alliance, which focuses on providing an intelligence and action suggestions that can take action to reduce the harm caused by the popularity to humans.)
English Title: From Lockdown to Lock-I
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020
