Yu Zeyuan: Can Huawei carry the poverty of the United States?

Early

Ji Yan Chunqiu

After one year after the list of Huawei companies was included in the sanctions, the United States' suppression of this high -tech company in China has been upgraded again.Whether Huawei can carry a new round of blows in the United States has become a hot spot for public opinion.

According to the announcement issued by the US Department of Commerce last Friday, even if certain chips are not developed and designed by US companies, as long as foreign companies use US chip manufacturing equipment, they must obtain the permission of the US government to provide chips to Huawei and its subsidiaries.This means that any company that uses American software tools and US technology to provide support and services to Huawei or its subsidiaries must be approved by the US government in advance.

The new US sanctions are obviously to cut off Huawei's global chip supply, including preventing Huawei from obtaining chips from its large supply TSMC.Some analysts believe that this will be the ultimate sanctions of the United States against Huawei.

On May 16 last year, US President Trump generally announced that he entered an emergency and signed an administrative order to ask US companies to prohibit US companies from using telecommunications equipment that threatened US national security. Huawei was included in the entity list of sanctions.Public opinion at the time was called Huawei's dark moment, and was pessimistic about Huawei's prospects.Huawei was forced to start various spare tires in advance.

Over the past year, Huawei ’s business outside China, such as mobile phones, has indeed been affected by a lot. However, Huawei's orders in the 5G market are still among the best in the world, and its business has exploded in mainland China.Huawei's 2019 financial report shows that Huawei's revenue last year still increased by 19.1%year -on -year.

Huawei's rotating chairman Xu Zhijun said at the end of last year that 2020 will be the most difficult year for Huawei. Huawei (component) reserves will be used up quickly.Living is the first goal of Huawei this year.

Now that the United States has suppressed and upgraded, the goal of Huawei survived a lot.But can Huawei really can't survive?I'm afraid it may not be.

While the United States announced a new round of Huawei measures, it has been extended for the sixth time that allows US companies and Huawei to do business for business, and even if the new sanctions plan for Huawei is introduced, there is still a 120 -day buffer period.Of course, the United States does not be kind to Huawei, but to reduce the price paid by relevant US companies for suppressing Huawei.

On the day of the United States announced the suppression of Huawei's new measures, the stock price of chip technology companies such as Qualcomm, Micron, Intel, and other chip technology companies fell.In other words, the United States has blocked Huawei's global chip supply chain, which was originally a loss to kill the enemy and damaged 800.

At the same time, the U.S. upgrade of sanctions on Huawei itself also shows that the sanctions of the past year have not achieved their goals, and they can only continue to fight at the expense.However, even if all new US sanctions are on the ground, Huawei may not be defeated across the board.

This is because Huawei not only has strong technical strength, but also has the support of the Chinese government and the Chinese market.On the surface, the United States uses national power to chase Huawei, and the strength of the two sides seems very different.But everyone knows that the United States suppressing Huawei is actually suppressing China's high -tech industry. The purpose is to curb the rise of China, which will inevitably cause the Chinese government and society to rebound.

Chinese officials have repeatedly stated that they will not sit back on Chinese companies such as the United States to suppress Huawei and other Chinese companies. Official media also revealed that American companies such as Qualcomm, Apple and Boeing may be retaliated by China.This is obviously not frightened.Chinese officials know that Huawei will be crushed by the United States and is directly related to the image and ability of the Chinese government.Huawei's business opponents in China are also clear. If Huawei falls, they may be the next Huawei.

Therefore, the battle between the United States and Huawei is actually the game between China and the United States.China will inevitably use its powerful resource mobilization capabilities to support Huawei without falling.

After the United States hit the United States in 2018, China began to accelerate the preparation of high -tech industries such as chips to reduce dependence on the United States, and achieved significant results in the past two years.Chinese companies have made breakthroughs in technical fields such as integrated circuits, storage chips, operating systems, and ecology, and the situation of being subject to people has changed.For example, in January of this year, SMIC's 14nm chip has achieved mass production, and it is expected that the mass production of Qi nano -chip can be achieved this year.

Of course, the gap between China and the United States in the field of high -tech can not be supplemented in the short term.In the future, Chinese companies such as Huawei are destined to experience many difficulties and challenges.At the same time, the United States spares no effort to suppress Huawei, which will also cause more trouble for Sino -US relations and the relationship between China and China and Western allies, but for Huawei and China, these are the reality that cannot be avoided.