The new crown epidemic may marked a historical turning point

The author of this article is Professor Harvard University, who was the Minister of Finance of the United States

The crisis of new coronary virus pneumonia (COVID-19, that is, the 2019 coronary virus disease) is the third major impact on the 21st century global system after the 2001 terrorist attack and the 2008 financial crisis.I guess it is the most important impact on the leading lead.

Although the earlier incidents will be included in historical textbooks, over time, the 9/11 terrorist attacks and Lehman Brothers will be diluted from the public's memory.

In contrast, I believe that after several generations, the new crisis will still be considered a major event.In the future, students will understand its direct influence. The problems it brings will be like the current students to understand the Franz Bull in 1914;The same is true.These incidents are of great significance, but their ultimate historical importance lies in what happened later.

As far as impact is concerned, the new crisis is a large -scale global incident.From the perspective of the United States, the number of Americans who died from COVID-19 will exceed the number of all military conflicts over the past 70 years.Some credit forecasts show that the number of deaths may exceed the number of wars in the 20th century.The increase in unemployment in the spring of this year is much higher than at any time in history; many predictors believe that the unemployment rate in the United States will exceed the high point after the Great Depression and last for two years.I wrote this article in a small town I have not left for two months. I believe that since the American Civil War, there has been no incident that has changed the life of so many families so dramaticly.

One month ago, people can still reasonably assume that death, economic loss and social turmoil will be temporary.Now it seems that the credibility of this view has been greatly reduced.The United States has done its best (although it is definitely not the best possible effort) for two months, and daily death cases have not dropped to less than 1,000.Many areas in the United States are now relaxing the isolation policy.Many European countries are doing this, and successful stories, including Singapore, South Korea, and Germany, have reported that there are new outbreaks.It seems very credible now that the situation in the West will not last long and improves.

Although these incidents are of great significance, their forecasts may be more important and reflected in two aspects.

First of all, we seem to be experiencing a major change in government duties.Historically, the biggest threat to ordinary people's lives and safety is either from the failure of domestic governance (chaos or tyranny), or from hostile overseas powers.This reality affects the structure of domestic and international political institutions.It made progress in this regard.We not only avoid the repeat of the World War, but also the chances of personal death are now about one -fifth of 50 years ago.

At the same time, threats to all countries have become more important, and their importance has now exceeded traditional threats.Over time, climate change may affect all of us.AIDS, Ebola, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), SARS, and current COVID-19 seem to indicate that epidemic diseases will recur at a certain frequency.There is also terrorism, which leads to the turmoil of a large number of refugees, and financial instability.We also face the challenges from new changes from artificial intelligence and information technology (IT).The new crown virus is helping to introduce a new world. In this world, it is more safe depends on to develop a certain degree of cooperation with allies and opponents, rather than maintaining the balance of strength.

COVID-19 may marked a second way to change from the leadership of the global system from Western democratic countries.The US government's performance during this crisis has been poor.Basic tasks are not performed, such as ensuring that medical workers who treat patients get masks.The lack of mid -term planning is obvious.In the White House, the basic security regulations have not been complied with, causing the safety of leaders to be in danger.

However, although the Trump administration has obvious mistakes, the performance of the United States is not particularly bad compared to other Western countries.New crown mortality rates in the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy, and many other countries are much higher than the United States.In contrast, the mortality rate in mainland China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand is far lower than 5%of the United States.Even a year ago, China ’s idea of basic medical equipment in the United States was still unimaginable.

If the 21st century is proven to be the century of Asia, just like the 20th century was the United States, then this major epidemic is likely to be remembered as a turning point.We are experiencing not only dramatic events, but very likely to become a turning point in history.

Translator/Liang Yanchang