We now live in the world of post -viruses.For the United States, the process of entering this world can be described as a sudden, only a month ago.The world of coronary viruses in 2019 has never returned.
Once you adapt to this reality, many things become clear, including how to resist the aggressive virus, how to protect ourselves in the darkest days of the future, and how to restart the economy responsibly.With the correct understanding, we can reasonably rebuild, making the world more tough and fair.
At the beginning of 2020, we believe that a large number of deaths will not happen.Most of the time in human history, infectious diseases are always a threat, and the struggle with infectious diseases is also the basic element of human civilization.By the middle of the 19th century, science began to win the upper hand and suppressed diseases such as cholera.
At the beginning of the 20th century, Europeans learned how to curb the damage of malaria and yellow fever, at least for themselves.In the 1940s, penicillin and rinsein were widely used.Children's vaccines with smallpox, measles, mumps, rubella and chickenpox followed.
In the two centuries of the invention and elimination of smallpox vaccines, science has gradually dominated the environment.It is true that there are also new diseases, for example, since the early 1980s, the disease of some communities and countries began in the early 1980s.But the general point is that although these sanitary emergency situations need to invest in resources and pay attention, it is not the core of our economic, social and life organizations.
The global impact of crown disease announced that this view has been out of date.A large number of deaths come back, and this reality will dominate everything, there are two reasons.
First of all, more widely, this is not the first coronary virus, including Shas and Middle East Breathing Syndrome (MERS), which is one of the fatal variants of the coronary virus after the millennium.There is no reason to think that the coronary virus 2019 will be the last.
Secondly, the fatality of this special coronary virus comes from its specific characteristics: it is highly contagious and can even be transmitted by asymptomatic people.Moreover, although many people who have infected with the 2019 coronary virus only have mild symptoms, it seems that it is most likely to cause the elderly and those who have potential health problems such as high blood pressure, diabetes and obesity.
However, will the coronary virus in the future must have similar characteristics?From the virus that causes ordinary colds to the fatal virus of Shas and MERS, other coronary viruses are not like this.Considering that our scientific understanding is still weak, the future coronary virus is likely to have different characteristics, such as the fatality to young people is higher than the elderly, or it may be more fatal to children.
Once you have this idea, it is impossible to believe that we can return to the pre -virus world.Everything we do, all our investment, and our own way will be affected by whether we can be removed from crown disease and succession virus, or the influence of more virus in front of the virus.
With this understanding, a few points will become clear, and even at a difficult and tragic moment, it may also make people feel at ease.
The United States and Europe's investment in preparations are obviously serious, including related science and how to apply it, and crown diseases may cause devastating blows to the West.But this is not because of lack of available technology.After all, after two months of blockade, China finally successfully curbed the epidemic; Taiwan was not inferior; South Korea successfully stabilized the situation after seeing a seemingly extremely dangerous moment.
West becomes fragile because it lacks technology; on the contrary, this is the result of the interaction between crown disease and its social structure and medical care services.Especially in the United States, the virus is raging with inequality society and fragmented sanitary systems.
We have enough weapon counterattack, but there are too many weapons pointing in the wrong direction. They are precisely designed to deal with the previous smaller crisis, such as hurricanes, such as hurricanes.Organizations with strong capabilities are hindered by failed leaders: they cannot collect necessary information, cannot be fully coordinated, or even use data to make decisions in a consistent way.
This stage will not last too long.Soon, we will learn how to fight back to overcome the crown disease.We can then start to rebuild a more tough information, decision -making and medical care system.As part of this goal, we must make unprecedented commitments, develop and use every scientific and organizational concept to increase the opportunity of our children and neighbor children.
In the end, we will win in the post -virus world.But this will be a long process.The best way to shorten it is to realize that returning is no longer an option.
Author Simon Johnson is MIT
Professor of Sloan School of Management, and is now co-chairman of the 2019 COVID-19 Policy Alliance
The alliance focuses on providing action and action suggestions that can take action to reduce the harm caused by the popularity to humans.
English Title: Welcom to the Post-Virus World
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020.
