The raging spread of the coronary virus epidemic in the world has a huge and profound impact on international relations. Many themeters assert that the future of the world will change.

The argument of former US Secretary of State Kissinger is a representative.On April 3, he published a column article entitled by crown diseases that would always change the world order. After asserting the epidemic, the world will no longer look like.The Internet and the media are full of arguments: globalization will retreat, China and the United States will be decoupled, the economy will usher in the Great Depression, Western countries will move the industrial chain back to their own countries, and so on.

Given that the crown disease is still severe, analysis and judging how much impact it will have on the future of the world is actually a very complicated work.Even if there is all data support (in fact, this is not done), it is not easy to get an accurate answer.

Judging from the butterfly effect that many people know, the wings of a butterfly fan in Asia may cause a storm in the Americas, and any small changes in the environment may have a huge impact.In this case, it is easy to accurately predict the global future changes.

However, as far as humans are concerned, we will go to the future irreversible at all times.Therefore, it is always necessary for future analysis and judgment.Although at this stage, even if you already have a supercomputer model, it is difficult to fully predict it, and it is almost impossible to do it.However, people can still explore various possibilities based on historical experience.

Globalization and retreat, world order will change forever, etc., reveal some possibilities in the future.The author believes that if you exclude some of the interference in front of the phenomenon, you can believe that the greater possibility is that the crown disease epidemic will not change the general trend of world development.

This judgment is first based on philosophical logic.The deduction of philosophy seems to be abstract and empty, but its advantage is that it can exclude the interference of many appearances, so it is easier to grasp the nature of the development of things.

From the perspective of philosophy, human history has proven that the world structure has always been in development and changes.The overall trend of this change is that productivity has become more and more developed, and the connection between the world is getting closer and closer, thereby going to economic globalization.This is a general trend that has continued for thousands of years.In the years of thousands of years, major disasters such as crown disease epidemic are not unique, but they obviously have not reversed such a general trend.

In this case, what basis can be concluded that the coronary virus will always change the world order?Why does this epidemic completely interrupted the general development trend of human society for thousands of years, causing globalization to reverse?If it is deduced from the standpoint of historical materialism, the development of human society has its inherent laws. The crown disease epidemic is just a huge event in the historic long river.Therefore, it will have a profound impact on the world, but it will not fundamentally subvert the development law of human society.In other words, it is not enough to subvert the general trend of world development.

Secondly, from a practical perspective, many things often show complex two sides. Therefore, it is not only necessary to see the impact on the world order of the crown disease, and it is necessary to see the other side of its impact.

For example, many thesex believes that the crown disease epidemic has caused Western politicians to discover that the medical industry such as masks and drugs is distributed abroad, which will not be conducive to the safety of Western countries themselves.Then accelerate the so -called China -US decoupling against globalization.This can be said to be a leaf covering the eyes, not to see Taishan.

Because, in fact, the so -called national security threats advocated by Western politicians are not really prominent in this epidemic.China has not refused to export medical supplies such as cooperation and restricting masks. For example, as of April 20, China has provided more than 2.46 billion masks to the United States, which means that each American can be divided into seven masks; in addition,, in addition,, in addition,Nearly 5,000 ventilator and many other supplies are also provided.

More importantly, the current layout of the global industrial chain is the natural result of human economic and social development.On the whole, it optimizes the allocation of resource allocation globally to maximize and optimize human production capacity. Therefore, it is beneficial to the entire human beings.

Obviously, China is responsible for production masks, medicines and other medical supplies, which is much more efficient than the United States with high human costs.If the United States insists on leaving a mask and other industrial chains in its country, and refuses Chinese products, the greater probability is that it will face a more serious gap after the epidemic comes, because capital companies cannot lose their strong production capacity for a long time.

Behind the layout of the industrial chain is the interweaving of national interests and corporate interests, and is the result of the active pursuit of capital.Unless Western countries change capitalist private ownership, capitalists do not take the chase profits as the first goal; otherwise, it cannot curb capital to find markets and chase profits around the world, or it can break the existing global industrial chain layout.All industrial chains have been withdrawn from China and interrupted the process of economic globalization.After the end of the crown disease, in order to restore the loss, capital will only be more anxious to find opportunities around the world, and it will promote a new wave of globalization rather than the opposite.

In other words, politicians try to reconstruct the industrial chain and reverse economic globalization after the end of the epidemic.In fact, the economic globalization characterized by the global layout of the industrial chain was originally promoted by Western countries. Every step they promoted at the beginning will consider national security.

Economic globalization has caused Western countries to control the world with the advantages of science and technology, finance and other hegemony under the decline in strength, which is precisely conducive to their national security.After all, capitalists will make politicians understand that the so -called national security is just a lie that cannot be scrutinized.

Another example is that after the epidemic, China and the United States will accelerate the decoupling, and it will not even be inevitable to fight against confrontation.Because its biggest logical loopholes are that in the United States to prevent rapid development from seizing its hegemonic position, only fierce confrontation with China and destroying China.

In fact, compared to huge risks and must pay a huge price to conflict with China, the United States as the boss must never threaten itself as the second, and there is a more reliable way.The internal strength and advantages make China unable to catch up; and China's rapid development and close cooperation can help the United States to enhance its internal strength and advantages for the United States to expand markets, share responsibilities, and resolve problems.

On the contrary, blindly suppressing the conflict between China and China will cause the United States to fall into a huge uncertainty danger, and it will also give Russia and Europe the opportunity to rise.

Although in this epidemic, the Trump administration's performance is not good, but no one can deny that the United States is still the only superpower in the world, and its internal strength and advantages of politics, economy, technology, culture, military, etc.It is far beyond China and still has a vigorous vitality.

When the epidemic is over and the election is over, politicians no longer have the need to blame China to shift their attention to shirk their responsibilities, they should clearly realize that they strive to enhance their inherent strength and advantages, and continue to deal with China to obtain market interests.Instead of establishing a powerful enemy like China, it is a more reliable way that enables the continuation of the US hegemony and the benefit of capitalists.

Therefore, China and the United States must compete, but it does not mean that it must be decoupled and conflict.It should be said that this is by far, the political elite of the United States still insists on positioning China as competitors, not the wise and self -confidence of the hostile country.

In short, although the crown disease epidemic is so severe, international relations have exposed many problems, but it should not be too anxious because of this, overestimating and exaggerating its impact on future world order.The stability of globalization is beyond imagination. A greater possibility is that after the epidemic, the world order quickly returned to normal, and the sun rose as usual.There are even greater possibilities. The reflection after the epidemic will prompt people to recognize the importance and urgency of global cooperation, thereby setting off a new round of deeperThe second wave of globalization.The world's general trend will never change the direction because of a epidemic.

During the global financial crisis in 2008, Chinese leaders frequently called for confidence to be more important than gold.After the outbreak, Chinese leaders first emphasized to strengthen their confidence.

Indeed, in the face of the impact of the epidemic, countries around the world should adhere to the trend from the general development of the times, look at the future, and strengthen the confidence of all humanity unity and cooperation, and build a more prosperous and peaceful world.The media and scholars are also responsible for passing this confidence to the public and politicians.This is obviously more favorable for promoting the world of mutual trust, uniting resistance, and co -construction of various countries.

The author is Chinese current affairs commentator

Taiwan Strait Relations and Public Opinion Researchers

Judging from the butterfly effect that many people know, the wings of a butterfly fan in Asia may cause a storm in the Americas. Any small changes in the environment may have a huge impact.Change is easy to talk about.