01 Viewpoint
Since the outbreak of Wuhan at the end of last year in Wuhan, the new coronary virus epidemic has experienced the slowdown of the Drara -style resistance with high pressure for many months.In mainland China, there have been many local cases in recent days. The Jilin City Government of Jilin Province announced that it has announced that the city has blocked the interception chain.South Korea, which is regarded as a model of anti -epidemic, has not added local cases for many weeks, and also appeared in the infection group of Eruti Hospital in Seoul.After Hong Kong did not have a local case on the 23rd, it also broke the cable on Tuesday (12th). Two local cases occurred, or there was an invisible community spread chain.
Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO Sanitation Program, also pointed out that the new coronal virus may become a global customs disease like human immune defect virus (HIV) and will never disappear.It even believes that it is difficult to find the vaccine that effectively dealt with the virus. Even if the successful development of vaccines may only be like measles, it is impossible to completely disappear.Faced with the endlessness of the epidemic, the vaccine is far away, and the governments of various countries are also facing the dilemma between the unblocking and the seal.The International Economic Organization (OECD) refers to the social distance measures of the developing economy to shrink the country's economy by 2%per month. Among them, the main economy will foresee 25%of the economic shrinkage during the year.
Faced with such major economic losses, the long -term implementation of Drac -style banned feet, stopping the market, and blocking the city seems to be a long -term feasible method.Many governments have therefore focused their focus on the outbreak of the epidemic, and Sweden, which has not yet implemented any tough ban seeking answers.From the beginning, Sweden has taken a very different path from other countries. It has not implemented the suspension of classes. The restaurant and bars are operated as usual. Students only need to live on campus on campus, and the number of gatherings is maintained above 50.Although the Swedish government calls on the people to work at home, avoid gatherings, and maintain social distance, most measures are only voluntary.
Nordic restoration of economic activities
Although the number of per capita infected in Sweden is higher than that of other Nordic neighbors that adopt more severe means, although it is still low compared to Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom.Although the Swedish government has not officially acknowledged its goal of group immunity, the chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemic of the Swedish Public Health Bureau who led the Swedish Public Health Bureau, estimatedGroup immunity.Tom Britton, a mathematician at Stockholm University, also estimates that when the immunohisty group in Si City in mid -June will reach 40%, it will curb virus transmission.
The originator of the group's immunity was the British Johnson government.At the beginning of the outbreak of the epidemic in March, it was still unwilling to suspend the market to suspend classes to attract external doubts. His chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance also proposed group immune theory, saying that the two nationwide two -centered population infected diseasesThe statement has caused global uproar.And later research warnings from the Empire Institute of Technology in London, if Britain adopted group immunity, it would lead to 250,000 people.After that, the government had rushed to change the same way, and Johnson himself also served his life infection.
With the endless ban on the epidemic, many countries have also fallen into the edge of collapse, and governments of various countries have to re -examine the group immune law that has been abandoned by people in the world.Although the Nordic neighbors in Sweden have not lifted the epidemic threat, they have gradually relaxed isolation measures to restore economic activities to a certain degree.Although South Korea appeared in the infection group of Litaiyuan, the Wen Zaiyin government did not re -implement a tough isolation ban.The United States, which is still ravaged by the epidemic, has also begun to unblock a certain degree with the support of President Trump, hoping to resume work and resume the United States from the edge of economic collapse.
Trump administration lacks publicity
However, when countries follow the Swedish model, they must also be alert to their advantages and disadvantages.Sweden had not prepared sufficient personal protection equipment in a timely manner. As a result, the epidemic spread rapidly in the nursing home and the elderly home, which caused the number of death tolls of the country.In addition, its infection groups are also concentrated in the poor, most of which are engaged in the service industry and cannot work at home.Such vulnerable groups are most likely to be hit by epidemic diseases, and even Sweden, which is full of social welfare systems, seems to be unavoidable.However, because of its stable medical system and mature democratic system, the national trust in the government has a high degree of trust, so the government does not need to force the isolation order.
Sweden's social soil and conditions may not be able to borrow directly to other countries such as the United States.American society was originally highly distrustful of the political system. Even if the government launched a quarantine order was rendered as a conspiracy theory, it was believed that it was the insidious plan for the party to seek personal interests to attack political opponents.Anthony Fauci, director of the Institute of Infectious Diseases, wants to overthrow Trump's conspiracy.The isolation order of various states was also resisted by many local people, and even organized demonstrations to break into the state parliamentary building with guns.In this regard, the society is highly differentiated, and the people's trust in the government is low. It is necessary to effectively implement the anti -epidemic policy.
If the WHO experts are true, then this cunning new crown virus will accompany humans for a long time.In this regard, governments of various countries must formulate a sustainable, long -term and flexible epidemic prevention and anti -epidemic policy.The Swedish group immune law may be available for reference. However, it is still necessary to depend on the different actual epidemic conditions and social soils of various countries.In addition to the short -term targets of anti -epidemic and the economy, protecting natural ecology and wildlife, and changing the previous consumption model of human beings, it is also important in the long run.Immune on future epidemic and natural disaster groups.
