Gonot Middot; Wagner
The exponential growth of the Coronatte Virus Case 2019 not only supplements a mathematical computing quick class for the public, but also a pressure test for systemic risks.Although it is too early to make the theory now, it is clear that the United States and its current leadership will require major reforms.
Careful treating systemic risks is the ultimate test of governance.Those who have passed the test know that when a very few highly contagious virus cases should be blocked, a city or the entire country should be blocked.Public Health officials in San Clara County, California, California, and New Zealand Prime Minister Adon, do this when facing crown disease; and their resolute and decisive risk management has also achieved extremely good results.
In addition, from the performance of German Chancellor Merkel (PhD) or Irish Prime Minister Walladca (ordinary doctor) successfully dealt with crisis, political leaders have a scientific background to help fight the epidemic.In addition, the fact that most of the most effective strategy is the fact that the government led by women is by no means accidental.
Those areas with a slower response (such as New York City) are much higher.At the national level, President Trump's catastrophic response to crown disease can also be directly attributed to the lack of risk awareness. This began with the decision of the government's decision to dissolve the National Security Council's epidemic in 2018.At present, it is very clear that based on the risk assessment of science and intelligence, it is important for effective political leadership, but Trump is used to allowing the two to obey his instincts.
Of course, incompetent leaders not only exist in the United States, but even efficient individual leaders can only do so much.The system also plays a very important role.
Due to emphasis on flexibility and efficiency, the United States has long been one of the most vibrant economies in the world.However, as the Nobel Prize winner of Economics, Joseph E. Stiglitz observed that during the crisis, the lack of shock absorbers implicit in American vitality will be revealed, let alone serious or not.Equality.
After the crown disease epidemic passes, the United States and many other countries will need to strengthen the risks that have not been fully valued so far.Investment in the prevention center, the World Health Organization, and other related departments and institutions.
However, the fatal epidemic is only one of the potential threats that are about to occur.Other potential events include a full range of network attacks, a major disaster caused by a full range of cyber attacks, a large earthquake in Tokyo or northwestern Pacific in the Pacific of the United States in the 1859 Caleon incident (destroyed ground communication facilities).wait.
When considering risks, probability and potential impact are equally important.Shortly after the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, then the US Vice President Cheney proposed one -percent principle of later known.He believes that if Pakistani scientists help Kaida organize or develop nuclear weapons for 1%, we must treat it as a determined event in response.Although Cheney's statement ignores the real probability of incidents and is mostly doing political shows, it is very similar to how the government's ideas should consider systemic risks.
In the United States, the government has assumed this role in certain risks. Two examples are strategic oil reserves and medical equipment national strategic reserves.However, it is not enough to build such a mechanism alone. As medical reserves cannot cope with the current crisis, they need to be properly managed.
In addition, the government has the responsibility to stipulate that the private sector maintains redundancy to provide the ability to resist systemic risks.It is required that the bank must meet the minimum reserve requirements. There are good reasons, but there is also room for improvement in this regard.Policy makers should finally learn from the lessons of long -term capital management companies' failure of capital management companies in 1998, and prohibit banks from transferring risks from their own balance sheets to hedge funds and other assets.
Real risk management reforms must go further.First of all, governments in the United States and around the world must stop on the one hand to socialize risks, but on the other hand, they are unwilling to share returns with the society.There should be no corporate assistance without the establishment of public equity. Private creditors should be the first person to go out.
Few people criticized Buffett's favorable conditions that Buffett had agreed with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America after investing in billions of dollars in Goldman Sachs and Bank of America after the 2008 financial crisis; and the government representing the public should be the most sophisticated investors of everyone.
As the last insurer and investor, the government can lead a temporary but thorough economic reorganization when the situation needs.Regardless of the response to the epidemic or the crisis of large -scale, but slow development such as climate change, the government must comprehensively evaluate its risks and ensure the operation of finance, energy, hygiene and transportation systems.Essence
Although it can be foreseeable, the crown disease is almost caught off guard, revealing that we lack preparation.As other foreseeable disasters are coming, we have no reason to delay the establishment of toughness.The full attention to systemic risks will inevitably attract some opposition, because toughness means redundant, and redundancy is usually considered the opposite of efficiency.However, this conclusion is established only when people focus on a short time span or completely ignore external costs, and governments of various countries should not do these two things.
If you want to tell us what you have taught us, it is to postpone the prudent decision -making, which will not only generate higher marginal costs in the future, but also enable us to embark on a completely different path.Essence
Author Gernot Wagner is a clinical associate professor of climate economics at New York University. He has a climatic impact with the late economist Martin Weitzman: the economic consequences of the global warming: The Economic Consequency of a Hotter Planet)
English Title: The Leadership Failure that Will Cost us everything
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020
