Gu Qingyang
The 2019 coronary virus epidemic spread globally and caused a great impact on the global supply chain.When the epidemic settled in China earlier, the suspension of China's economy had a serious impact on other countries; when Northeast Asia, Western Europe, and the United States became the epidemic earthquake, their supply system cut off the supply of China, which in turn affects China’s China’s.Repeat production and economic recovery.
The global impact of two -way, or even multi -dimensional interaction is formed through the supply chain.Once a major event occurs in a certain area, it will be transmitted to all corners of the world through this close network.The refined division of labor in the world makes the supply chain very sensitive and fragile, so people once again reflect on globalization and global supply chain.It can be expected that the global supply chain layout will have major adjustments.
The idea of adjustment is nothing more than a new balance between cost savings and the toughness of the supply chain.In the past, focusing on the layout of low -cost places, it may pay more attention to the overall security of the supply chain in the future.There are three ideas, one is the localization of the supply chain.However, today's products are extremely complicated. It is combined with thousands of or even tens of thousands of parts and components. It is difficult to imagine that a country can have global comparative advantages in the production of all components.
Excessive emphasis on the localization of the industrial chain will push up production costs and harm global competitiveness and consumer interests.In addition, the complete industrial chain formed within a country is not necessarily the safest, not in line with the principle of scattered risks, because the next crisis can occur in any country.In addition, multinational companies produce and serve global consumers in global organizations. Its shareholder sources are international. It is difficult to say which country is its mother country.
The second idea is the neighboring regionalization of the supply chain, that is, the nearby countries are organized to organize production, shortening the supply chain length.Its advantage is to shorten the distance of product producers and demanders, save logistics costs and reduce carbon emissions.However, to build a regional industrial chain with a relatively advantageous advantage, the core is still global competitiveness, and it takes a long time to accumulate, and it is difficult to ensure the security of the supply chain.Take the so -called single market of the European Union, the distribution of this mask has led to a battle of neighbors as a neighbor, indicating that the supply chain near the area near the area is also unreliable.
The third idea still focuses on the global layout, but it is more comprehensive weighing cost savings, the toughness and security of the enterprise ecosystem and the supply chain.From the perspective of risk management, regional decentralization, but decentralization is not necessarily localized or adjacent to the region.The original excessive concentrated supply chain, and the logistics solution of excessive emphasis on zero inventory must be adjusted, and the risk management of the overall supply chain will increase to the height of surpassing cost savings, so as to maintain toughness at the time of crisis.
China occupies a central position in the global industrial chain and supply chain, so the impact of this supply chain on China is worthy of attention.The layout of multinational companies in China has been dynamically adjusted. With the changes in China's industrial upgrading and the comparative advantages of production factors, some multinational companies will leave and some new companies will enter.In the short term, it is impossible for global supply chain to withdraw a large scale.The departure and entry of multinational companies depends on China's tension against multinational companies and the tension of other countries to multinational companies. This is like a tug of war.
China's attractiveness to multinational companies is manifested in the price of relatively low prices of production, with the world's most complete industrial supporting system and corporate ecosystem, abundant financing capabilities, a large number of high -quality labor, increasing scientific and technological innovation capabilities, the world's largest world's largest abilityThe consumer market, government service level, and continuously released reform dividends.
At present, China is still quite attractive in general, but this attractiveness must be maintained, and new tensile force is constantly formed. China needs to continue to deepen reforms, accelerate the improvement of the market economy system, increase open efforts and adopt the world's most internationally the most.Jia practice builds the business environment in accordance with the highest standards.In recent years, the external environment of China has undergone fundamental changes, and China has to rely more on its own strength.
It is difficult for China to control external changes, but internal reform and development can be controlled.The international political interference will affect the layout of the global industrial chain and supply chain in China in the short term, but in the long run, it still depends on the attractiveness of China.
China is the world's most important manufacturing center. The supply chain, service chain, and value chain system formed around the industrial chain are the world's most complete.This unique industrial ecosystem can provide a complete solution for multinational companies.This is the strongest magnetic and adhesive of multinational companies.
China's future industrial chain adjustment
This time, China has successfully controlled the rare crisis and showed strong execution, proving that China can control the major crisis events, and can provide stability and security for the normal operation of the industrial chain and supply chain. This is sticky. This is sticky. This is sticky. This is sticky. This is sticky.An important factor in living in the global industrial chain.
With the advantages of its own industrial chain and supply chain this time, China provides a lot of anti -epidemic materials to global international organizations and more than 100 countries, which is showing the importance of globalization and global supply chain.You can use global supply chain to cross support.
The adjustment of China's future industry chain can be performed from two aspects.First, the domestic layout of the supply chain should be strengthened.As mentioned earlier, the complete localization of the industrial chain and supply chain is not feasible to most countries, but it can be explored for China's largest market in the world.China accounts for 30%of the added value of the world's manufacturing industry, and has a certain international comparative advantage to build a longer and more complete industrial chain.
China's current shortcomings are weak high -end links in the supply chain. In the future, it can make up for this defect through scientific and technological innovation and international cooperation.Of course, the construction of the industrial chain still follows the principle of comparative advantages, and it is not necessary to emphasize the integrity of the chain.
Secondly, China must still have a decentralized layout in regions and the world to form a multi -dimensional three -dimensional industrial chain and supply chain system.China can cooperate with Northeast Asia and Asianan countries to form regional industry integration.East Asia is the focus of the global economy. The geographical location of China is conducive to establishing a regional supply chain.China should also continue to lay out global layout, although the international geopolitics that they are currently encountered are great.In addition to building a supply chain with Europe and the United States as much as possible, we should pay attention to the integration of industrial and supply chain in countries along the Belt and Road, and extend the Belt and Road infrastructure construction projects as soon as possible to industrial and urbanization construction.
From the perspective of economic efficiency and economic security, localization, neighboring regionalization and global allocation have their own advantages. The relationship between each other is complementary to each other, rather than excluding each other.By constructing a multi -dimensional three -dimensional industrial chain and supply chain network, strategic risks can be dispersed.
In addition, this time isolation measures such as global sealing city and locking country have also spawned some new formats, which will inevitably stimulate the connotation innovation of the global industrial chain and supply chain.Electronic trade and cloud services will be favored.The construction of emerging infrastructure with 5G, big data, and artificial intelligence as the core will also provide important support for the new type of industrial chain and supply chain.
The author is the National University of Singapore
Associate Professor of Li Guangyao School of Public Policy
In the short term, it is impossible for global supply chain to withdraw a large scale.The departure and entry of multinational companies depends on China's tension against multinational companies and the tension of other countries to multinational companies. This is like a tug of war.
