As the epidemic stabilizes, the era of the epidemic in the epidemic in domestic media has begun.If the most dangerous epidemic has passed, will the economy's longing economy be warm?

At this moment, the economy becomes the core point, so what is the economic recovery?In the economy of the economy, in addition to investment and exports, consumption has been highly hoped.Reverse consumption is the strong needle of the economic rebound after the epidemic that everyone expects.

Reverse consumption: late or absent?

Theoretically, this is not unreasonable, just like many people think that consumption accounts for less than 40 % of GDP. Compared with the level of 50 % to 70 % in developed countries, there is obviously there is still much room for improvement.

This logic is the logic of real estate rising if it goes through.If you can't get through, it is similar to Ruixing's hope to turn China into a kingdom of coffee.

It seems not easy today.Rebellion consumption should be the first to suppress the worst industry in the epidemic, such as catering and tourism.However, from the recovery of these two industries, it is not ideal.

Looking at the most impact on the epidemic, it is still struggling.The May 1st holiday in 2020 is a traditional festival of travel. Shanghai and other places have also carried out measures to stimulate consumption.How's the effect?According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, from May 1st to 5th, China received a total of 115 million domestic tourists, with revenue of 47.56 billion yuan.Compared with the four -day holiday in 2019, the number of people decreased by 47%year -on -year and revenue decreased by 63%year -on -year.It can be seen that not only the number of people traveling has fallen sharply, but everyone's consumption amount has decreased more than people.

In addition to travel, catering is the focus of impact.In April 2020, the China Hotel Association Research Institute issued a report.The report revealed two points of information. Most catering began to resume work. Sample food companies provided 88.26%of food foods, and the re -production and re -production rate of restoration in the catering industry increased significantly;%Of the number of food companies is less than half of last year.

From this point of view, even if the data recovers in March, the whole situation is not optimistic.The active online consumption cannot save the sluggish consumption and even overall consumption.According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, in the first quarter of 2020, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the country was 7.86 trillion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 19%.

Some analysis opinions believe that retaliated consumption may be late, but it will never be absent.At present, compared to retaliatory consumption, the earliest is revenge.According to central bank data, in the first quarter of 2020, national residents' deposits increased by 6.47 trillion yuan, a year -on -year more than 400 billion yuan.

Behind the retaliation of saving money

The main force and trend of consumption often come from young people, that is, the post -waves.From the data point of view, the number of post -90/00s exceeds one -fifth of the population.This wave of consumption boom is the most hit, I am afraid it is young people.Haidilao's price increase also apologized, but the price increase of the head milk tea is the reality they have to accept.

Consumption, especially the consumption of young people, can save the economy?It's difficult.Many young people's consumption rely on consumer credit support, that is, daily credit cards, Huayan and other tools borrowed in advance, and repay depends on daily wages to flow.In this case, once layoffs have occurred, many people's original way of life is unsustainable.According to Nielsen's latest 2019 Chinese young people's debt status, the average liabilities of young people exceed 130,000.More critical, more than 60%of the post -90s have substantial liabilities, and the proportion is higher than other groups.

Economist Liu Haiying noticed that after the epidemic, short -term consumer loans were different from long -term consumer loans.Here, both have risen sharply all year round, and the growth rate of short -term consumption loans is greater than long -term consumption growth MDASH; mdash; this may partially reflect the structured changes brought about by the post -90s into this market;

Now this situation is facing changes. In 2020, short -term consumer loans have fallen, what does this mean?Liu Haiying believes that this shows that everyone is obviously more cautious about loan consumption, and the growth rate of long -term consumer loans has risen, and there may be a situation of buying and mortgage loans.The changes in different directions of the two suggest that consumers are re -examining their consumer decisions and become more cautious.

Each generation of young people consumes advance and bears debt.But the opportunity of this generation may be less than the front wave.They missed the talent bonus brought by reform and opening up. At that time, foreign companies were the first choice for many young people. They also missed the golden age of the rise in real estate. This means that maybe the former waves have risen to rent, and many young people feel stressful.Essence

In the next ten years, it will be a soft -class era.The soft class means middle -income groups with unstable status and unstable status, and a major test of the soft -class era is that the class not only does not solidify, but even has a lot of space.For layoffs bankruptcy, it is under pressure to repay the loan repayment.

Soft -class sad song of the back waves

The wife was playing, and the taxi driver took the initiative to tell her that a man who had just got on the car cried in the car.This person was an enterprise executive in Wuhan a year ago with an annual salary of more than 300,000 yuan, bought a house, and the monthly supply was 5,000 yuan. He just bought a 300,000 car with a monthly supply of 7,000 yuan.Originally, I was thinking about this year, and repaid the loan loan. In the future, there is a middle class with a house and a car.

This is a Weibo netizen shared an experience that caused a lot of resonance.It can be said that this is also a typical sketch of the soft class. I once thought that entering the successful upper passage and not paying attention to it, it can be beaten back to the original shape.What's even more regrettable, there is no chance to climb to the defeated position.

If the difference, this is the biggest difference between the Houlang and the front wave, and everyone is facing the impact of the soft class of elimination.

The impact of the epidemic is not only on the physical level, but also the spiritual level.The huge gear of the economy is self -operation in the future expectations. If everyone no longer believes in the success of the future and the spirit of capital and waves will be greatly reduced, then corporate investment will also be afraid of mdash; mdash; capital impact;Expansion is often not rational -driven, but the so -called animal spirit of Economics Master Keynes, and there is periodic excitement and timidity.

If the company is sluggish, the income of employees and families will inevitably be impacted.Swords and shrinking food may be a new fashion.Just like a friend's message in the public account Xu Jin's economic man, there may be revenge disconnection.In this case, there will be new changes in consumer trends.Not to mention, the prospects of economic and social expectations will also change.

The Chinese economy takes off is a typical model of transcendence in the post -developed country.Because of this, the past of other countries may be a reference for China.A few years ago, when the Chinese economy was cooking oil, I was trying to study the secrets of the Japanese economy since the 1980s.I visited a lot of people, including the most well -known economist in the Japanese industry to study.He raised me a problem that did not seem to be directly related to Japan, but gave me a key factor in Japan's decline.

He said, do you know how long after the United States has a Great Depression, does most people go back to borrow?I would answer without waiting, he sighed and answered himself, never.

Hope that these will not happen to China.To this end, we can only take greater reform.