Since March of this year, with the 2019 Coronary Virus epidemic raging Europe and the United States, as well as the disputes between Western countries and China around the epidemic, and the increasing tendency of China and the West, about how the epidemic affects the world economic and political pattern, and the future trend of globalizationThe discussion is endless in the policy and academic circles.
In other related review articles, the author has discussed the possibility and limited issues of partial decoupling in China and the West in the short term.This article put forward the following judgments: From the long -term perspective, China's strategic choice is the core factor that determines the future direction of globalization; China will also make the right choice in the future, prompting the globalization process to return to the normal track.
China's strategic choice to determine globalization trend
From the middle and long term, how will the relationship between China and the outside world develop?What is the future destiny of globalization?It is not easy to predict the general trend of economic and social development.This is because there are too many factors affecting economic and social development. There are both objective, external factors, and subjective and internal factors.
The author believes that deciding whether China can continue to integrate into the key and core factors of globalization is not China's objective external factors mdash; mdash; the external world is willing to accept China, and to integrate China into the international community, and assume greater leadership responsibilities.It is expected; it is the subjective internal factors of China, that is, China's own strategic choice of mdash; MDASH; how to integrate into the international community and assume greater leadership responsibilities.
At the same time, the author believes that China's own strategic choice will not only directly determine whether China continues to integrate into globalization, but also determines the future of globalization.This is because on the one hand, China has become the second largest economy in the world, has the potential to become the world's number one economy, and the ability to determine the future world pattern; on the other hand, China is currently in the world's major economies and dominatesThe only economy with huge system differences in Western countries, so the choice of China will directly determine the basic pattern of the future world.
The reason why the external world is willing to accept China is because the history of the past 70 years, especially the history of the last 40 years, has fully proved this.Of course, the acceptance of the external world is also accompanied by expectations.Different countries have different expectations for China to integrate into the international community and assume greater leadership responsibilities.The expectations of the international mainstream society are mainly three aspects: one is that the economic operation method is more market -oriented; the other is that the social governance method is more open; the third is to pursue more international mainstream values on foreign exchanges.
The third aspect (diplomacy) above is actually an extension of the first two aspects (internal affairs).Many people believe that the internal affairs and diplomacy of a country should be separated strictly.In fact, internal affairs and diplomacy of a country are inseparable; diplomacy is not only an extension of the internal affairs, but also in turn affects the internal affairs.This is not only the basic common sense of political theory, but also a true portrayal of history and reality.
These expectations of international mainstream society, although not obviously revealed in the late 1970s, although it was not obvious, but with the reform and opening up that China had just begun at that time, it was unsuccessful with Deng Xiaoping's epoch -making visit to the United States and Japan at that time.In the late 1990s and the early 2000s, when the Clinton government supported China to join the World Trade Organization, these expectations publicly expressed these expectations.
The process of China's reform and opening up in the past 40 years is the willingness of the international mainstream society, expectation with China's own will, and the process of choosing to run into each other.The better the two aspects, the more harmonious the overall relationship between China and the outside world, and the smoother the process of integrating China into the international community.vice versa.
The key issue facing China is that after the great achievements of 40 years of reform and opening up and achieved economic construction, the expectations of both Chinese officials and civilians on the international mainstream society, the core sources of the achievements in the past 40 years, and how to go next steps should be.What kind of cognition?
If China thinks that the expectations of international mainstream society are correct, the development results of the past 40 years have been actively drawing on the practice of international mainstream society and reforming their original disadvantages.Continue to go on, realize your prosperity and prosperity, and assume greater international leadership responsibilities in accordance with the expectations of international mainstream society.
On the contrary, if China believes that the expectations of international mainstream society are incorrect, and even the existing international order dominated by international mainstream society is unreasonable.Some special methods, and cleverly use external resources, the next path selection, is to adhere to your special practice, and even use the strength that has gradually accumulated in the past 40 years to promote your special practice to the external world, challenge and change yourselfIt is considered an unreasonable international order, and strive to assume greater international leadership responsibilities in the way you think is correct.
The above two different cognitive and path choices have a broad foundation in Chinese officials and folks.Which kind of cognition and which path selection is correct and practical in the direction, which will make the relationship between China and the outside world more harmonious. It will make China better integrate into the international community and assume greater leadership responsibilities.Is it conducive to China itself and the world?
The changing situation of Chinese diplomacy and international situation in the past two years has already raised this serious issue for the Chinese.The crown disease epidemic is just a matter of urgent ways to mention this problem again.How to get in China?Where does globalization go?It does not depend on the world, but on China.Ball, in China.
Globalization process will return to the right track
The author hopes and believes that from the long -term perspective, China will make the right strategic choice, overcome the recent tendency of local decoustrations of China and the West, and promote China to re -integrate the globalization process and promote globalization to return to the original normal track.The basic basis of this judgment lies in the inherent reasonableness of globalization, but also the irreversible development direction of China brought about by China's reform and opening up, and the improvement of self -regulating ability.
The reform and opening up promoted by Deng Xiaoping not only liberated the productive forces of Chinese society, promoted the level of leaps of China's economic development level and the living standards of the people, but also liberated the ideas of Chinese society and promoted the improvement of society's level of knowledge.In the 40 years of reform and opening up and the liberation of ideology, the general direction and trend of China's development and progress brought about will not change fundamentally.
In recent years, although there are many internal and external factors that hinder this development trend, the internal and external forces that have promoted this general trend and restricting various obstacles are still very strong, and it will definitely promote China's final strategic choice.
More importantly, if China's strategic choice occurs, it will definitely bring economic deterioration and social instability, and the government cannot afford the infinite development of this situation.To the right track.
Typical examples include at least two: First, some aspects of development and changes in some aspects of the past few years have caused difficulties in the development of the private economy and affecting the overall economic operation. In the end, the national leadership is important to reiterate the development of the private economy at the end of 2019 and the end of 2019, respectively.Sexuality and densely introduced relevant policies and measures; the second is the development of Sino -US trade friction, which seriously affects China's external environment and economic development. Therefore, although China -US negotiations have gone through twists and turns, they are finally temporarily signed by the Sino -U.S.Stop loss.
In short, from the perspective of medium- and long -term perspective, the basic national policy of China's reform and opening up will not fundamentally shake, and the relationship between China and the external world will not fundamentally reversed. The process of integrating China into the global economic system will not be fundamentally trending with the globalization trend will not be fundamentally fundamental.reverse.This process may be hindered by a momentary factors, but after all, it will be rainy and return to the right track.
In an interview with reporters, Professor Wen Guanzhong, a Chinese -American scholar, expressed a kind of concern that if China has continued to deteriorate with the external world, it will miss the modern window period.This is because the industrial chain caused by the deterioration of the relationship between the two parties moved out, and it was difficult to come back later.This worry is not unreasonable, but the authorIt is not necessary to worry too much. The comparative advantages of the development of each country at each stage are different. At that time, China will definitely find its new comparative advantage and find its new appropriate position in globalization and the global industrial chain.
But this is not to say that China does not have to be rejected by the world's mainstream system in the short term. Any unnecessary cost should be avoided.If China can always keep it within the world's mainstream system through the correct strategic choice, and avoid unnecessary losses, why not?Why do you choose to take a detour?Create the difficulties that should not have, and then overcome it, not the wise.
In the end, readers may ask, how long does the author say in the middle and long term?In this regard, the author cannot accurately answer, but roughly judges that China's tension with the external world in the near future will not exceed 15 years.Of course, the author hopes that the shorter this time, the better, and the relationship between China and the external world will return to the normal track as soon as possible with the globalization process to shorten the pain of China's and world economic development.
The author is a professor of economics in China
The process of China's reform and opening up in the past 40 years is the willingness of the international mainstream society, expectation with China's own will, and the process of choosing to run into each other.The better the two aspects, the more harmonious the overall relationship between China and the outside world, and the smoother the process of integrating China into the international community.vice versa.
