Guo Yaobin
As the 2019 Coronary Virus epidemic rays in the United States, the Trump administration has major diplomatic actions. First, it announced in early February announced that from 2019 to 2025, the US Central Asian strategy (UNITED Strates Strates Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025, hereinafter referred to as Central Asian strategy).Then at the end of February, it was announced to reach a preliminary agreement with the Taliban, which controls about 40 % of Afghanistan regions, and officially announced that the NATO coalition led by the United States was completely withdrawn from the Afghan territory in batches within 14 months; the Secretary of State Pompeo was in February and 3Monthly visited Afghanistan.
The U.S. military withdrawn from Afghanistan is one of Trump's campaign commitment. In addition, it has announced that it has been withdrawn from Syria last year, and the US military for the U.S. military organizations with the Syrian opposition and Kurdish militia. It is only a matter of time to leave Afghanistan to leave Afghanistan.It is worth noting that in the Central Asian strategy, the White House specially states that the five countries in Central Asia will assist in the stability of Afghanistan and encourage the five Central Asian countries to support the Afghan economy in all aspects.
Compared with Bush and Obama, Trump's Central Asian policy does not have gorgeous ideas, and to promote relations with Central Asia with a pragmatic attitude, it means that although the United States acknowledges that it cannot dominate Central Asia, it is necessary channels for retreat from Afghanistan, as well as checks and balances.In the buffer of the Chinese area, Central Asia still has an important position in Washington's strategic blueprint.
Acting decently from Central Asia to Afghanistan
As early as September last year, the US negotiation representative Zalmay Khalilzad had almost reached a peace agreement with the Taliban, but in the last moment, Trump's opposition pulled down.At that time, it was estimated that the U.S. military withdrawal was only a matter of time, but it was unexpected that Trump watched the five Central Asian countries to cooperate to rebuild Afghanistan by the way of publishing Central Asian policy documents.Assist in stabilizing the situation in Afghanistan.
At the same time, Trump sent Pompeo to visit the capital of Uzbekistan, Tashkeng, restarting the C5+1 (Central Asian and the United States) summit that has not been held for more than four years. In the process, Uzbekistan has been mentionedDeliven to promote peace in Afghanistan.
The Treaty signed with Taliban, together with the two points mentioned in Afghanistan in the Central Asian strategy, has made up to show that the United States has no complete strategy in Afghanistan, and even the entire Central Asia after the withdrawal of Afghanistan.
First of all, most of the content of Central Asia Strategy, except for the two points of Afghanistan and Central Asia, only reiterate the policy that the United States has been in the past and now in Central Asia; second, the preliminary agreement between the United States and the Taliban,It can be summarized for Trump's resentment and hatred from the United States with Taliban, only to pull out as soon as possible and stop endless wars in Afghanistan.The United States has no intention of intervening in political dialogue and negotiations between Taliban, local forces and Afghan government.
About one month after the preliminary agreement signed a reconciliation agreement between the two parties, Pompeo met with the Taliban negotiating representatives Abdul Ghani Baradar and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani to try to promote the reconciliation of all parties in Afghanistan, but noneVery progress, during the period, threatened to reduce the aid of US $ 100 million in order to show that dissatisfaction was dissatisfied with Gani and ABDullah Abdullah, which was delayed to settle power disputes, hindering Afghanistan's approach to reconciliation.Since the policy has not wanted to get involved in Afghanistan, Pompeo has been expected to return without success; even in another way, Pompeo's mediation is just routine, and it is purely that the United States is not promoting reconciliation, but the responsibility is not in the United States.
Even the secret appendix between the US tower, such as the Hong Kong English Asian Times column reporter Pepe Escobar quoted sources as saying that some U.S. troops were allowed to continue to stay in Afghanistan and supervise the negotiations of different factions in Afghanistan.It has not been meaningful to stay in Afghanistan to stay in Afghanistan today. It has been a waste of money and sacrificing life for a long time.For Afghanistan and five Central Asia, they will not exist because the U.S. military continues, and will not establish a more close relationship with Russia and China.
In general, the United States uses the claims to strengthen cooperation with Afghanistan with Afghanistan, but it is only to withdraw Afghanistan's decent steps.
The third option to retreat
The United States has always paid less attention to its interests in Central Asia. During the station in Afghanistan, the United States only regarded Central Asia as the target of counter -terrorism cooperation and the supply line that supported the Afghanistan war.
In November 2011, when the US Secretary of State Hillary visited Central Asia, he announced the New Silk Road Initiative Central Asian policy, encouraging the five Central Asian countries with Afghanistan, India and Pakistan to strengthen economic and trade cooperation. On the one hand, helpAfghanistan is looking for economic and trade opportunities, on the other hand, trying to weaken Russia's traditional influence in Central Asia.
The US policy is mainly infrastructure investment, such as the total value of MDASH, which connects Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan;After the initiative, the approach to the United States will be compared.
Central Asia traditionally is the backyard of Russia, and after China expands its influence of political and economic influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, China and Russia have been divided into autumn in Central Asia, and even the former has a trend of the latter.
In fact, the Afghan government joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as early as 2012 to become an observer. In 2016, it also formed a coordination mechanism for military cooperation cooperation with China, Pakistan and Tajikistan to try to establish diplomatic routes other than the United States.Since the United States cannot clear the Taliban forces in Afghanistan, it is sooner or later, and it is sooner or later. It is sooner or later. The Afghan government born because of the United States naturally try to establish diplomatic autonomy in the region early.
The weak power of the United States in Central Asia is an objective fact, and the core interests are not here.However, as China has gradually impacted Russia's interests in Central Asia, and the people of Central Asian people from time to time, the emotions of fear of Chinese plundering resources can become a buffer of the influence of Chinese political and economic influence in Central Asia.
The Chinese economy had declined before the outbreak of the 2019 coronary virus disease that originated in Wuhan, which will inevitably lead to the decline in investment in Central Asia in the Belt and Road Initiative. The United States can wait for the opportunity to re -intervene in Central Asia and cooperate with the Indo -Pacific strategy to block China.The crown disease has changed the world structure. The United States will target China and regard it as the number one strike object.The United States just sprinkled Afghanistan at this moment, but it was pragmatic but intervened in Central Asian affairs, or it could be achieved faster.
The author is a researcher at the Institute of International Issues in Hong Kong
The Chinese economy had declined before the outbreak of the 2019 coronary virus disease that originated in Wuhan, which will inevitably lead to the decline in investment in Central Asia in the Belt and Road Initiative. The United States can wait for the opportunity to re -intervene in Central Asia and cooperate with the Indo -Pacific strategy to block China.The crown disease epidemic has changed the world structure. The United States will be more targeted at China and regard it as the number one strike target. The United States just sprinkled Afghanistan at this moment. It is pragmatic but intervene in Central Asian affairs, or can realize it faster.
