Kette Middot; Harxinton
Intelligence agencies have long been used to, and they will be headlined if they fail.But now it is time for intelligence professionals to be praised: US President Trump has been ignoring the intelligence agency's warnings on the 2019 coronary virus disease for several months, and the Trump administration has often ignored intelligence agencies' warnings on the danger of great popularity.
From January to February, Trump has repeatedly denied information about the threat of crown disease, which is not surprising.Trump has been clearly stated that he is not patient with those who do not meet his views.When the leadership of the intelligence department conflict with Trump's views on several issues in the annual briefing of the Congress last year, Trump responded to them who returned to school.
Trump is compared with intelligence staff this year, and the cost will be a medical system of life and overwhelming.The American intelligence agency rang the alarm and even provided the enemy's combat plan to describe how the crown disease would develop in detail.However, the person who wanted to be the president of the war did nothing, and his negligence on the epidemic explained the problem.
Most Americans will never see that the original information and in -depth analysis received by the president every day will not understand the national security challenges that intelligence analysts and officials must face.This is why intelligence leaders' public briefings are so important, especially when they disclose in the briefing that the president has been ignorant.
Obviously, public briefing cannot list all the details of the tracking of intelligence agencies.But I have made dozens of non -machinery briefings at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). I know that even if professional analysts will protect their sources and methods of obtaining messages, they will do their best to describe the results of the investigation results accurately and accurately describe the results of the investigation results.Essence
Taking the annual threat briefing of Congress as an example, this briefing has been postponed indefinitely this briefing this year.When making an assessment report, some institutions are responsible for digging the facts and tracking their influence, providing a broad perspective for the director of the National Intelligence, and finally the director reunited and made a report.At a press conference in 2019, Dan Coats, then national intelligence director, reiterated the conclusion of the intelligence community that Russia had intervened in the 2016 election for Trump; and warned that Trump and North Korean dictators Kim Jong -unBrother friendship did not weaken North Korea's core ambitions.This disappointed Trump.
More importantly, the annual briefing released by the National Intelligence Director has repeatedly warned the risks of the world's popularity.For the first time, the intelligence agency proposed that President Obama worked in January 2009.Dennis Blair, then the director of the national intelligence, confirmed that the most urgent transnational hygiene challenge in the United States is still a major epidemic epidemic, which may be caused by a highly fatal influenza virus.
After the outbreak of H1N1 influenza (pig influenza) in 2009, Blair doubled in 2010 that the possibility of greatly popular epidemic and destroying the economy was emphasized.He said: (Due to the relevant agencies) lacks the ability to continue monitoring and diagnosis of animal diseases, the ability of the United States to identify, control and warn the local epidemic before disease dissemination has been weakened.
In March 2013, Blair's successor James Clapper also conveyed the same information, but the evaluation of this threat also had more details about the future.He pointed out that the dangers brought by human and animal affected viruses are getting greater and greater; he warns: a new type of respiratory pathogen that is easy to spread, killing or killing more than 1%of the victims, which may be the most destructive.One of the events.Such epidemic outbreaks will lead to global popularity.
When accurately predicting crown disease, Claper made it clear that this was not a threat of imagination.In May 2017, Coat emphasized a prediction of the World Bank. A major epidemic epidemic will cause the global GDP to lose about 5%; Trump also received the same information at the time.
Coat issued the same warning in 2019. At the Senate Intelligence Committee's hearing: The United States and the world will still be easily affected by the next influenza epidemic or large -scale outbreak infectious diseases, which may lead to a higher rate of death.Disabled, seriously affect the world economy, and make the shortage of international resources, and there will be more and more voices that ask the United States to support.If Kotz's successor does not feel difficult to make a briefing this year, is anyone surprised?
However, the annual evaluation report of the National Intelligence Director is not the only non -machinery briefing. These briefings show that Trump's negligence in the face of influenza is popular.The National Intelligence Council of the US intelligence community, a Global Trends report released every four years, predicts the power that may affect the next decades.It is not a coincidence that choosing this opportunity: When the government is changed, the strategic prospects will appear, which provides a long -term international perspective for the President, allowing them to adjust or restart their national security goals.
Trump described the crown disease epidemic, saying that he did not know where the epidemic came from.In the past three global trend reports, and hundreds of experts they consulted, they could not agree with him.
The 2008 Report of Global Trends 2025 was almost predicted by this epidemic.In the report, the author warns that a new, highly contagious, and fatal human respiratory disease will occur. If there is no sufficient response measures, it may trigger the world's popularity.They added that this threat may appear in areas with high population density and close relationships with animals, such as many areas of China and Southeast Asia.Even if international travel is limited, travelers with mild or asymptomatic symptoms may bring their diseases to other continents.
From the fact that Trump sells false information about the virus to a functional unit under the National Security Council (National Security Council), many opportunities have beented, and they have not been able to take action before the crisis crisis.The sanitary crisis and economic consequences we have experienced have long been predicted.American intelligence analysts have been warning this situation at least 12 years in the past 12 years.But even if they are unable to foresee that the United States will eventually appear a president who is willing to sacrifice so many lives because of his arrogance.
Author Kent Harrington is a former senior analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency of the United States. He used to be a national intelligence official in East Asia, the Asian webmaster and public affairs director of the Central Intelligence Bureau.
English Title: The Spies Who Predict Covid-19
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020
