Author: Chen Jingxiang
The US presidential election is approaching, and Trump's offensive against China is constantly strengthening.Before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the Sino -US battlefield was mainly traded on bilateral trade, but Trump publicly stated at a press conference last Thursday that the US -China trade agreement was secondary.The amount can reach $ 1 trillion; it is obvious that the purpose is to punish China.
No matter who won the United States, it is impossible to reverse
Cooperating with Trump's offensive, Secretary of State Pompeo has continuously pointed out that China has not reported the epidemic in time to WHO, and has a large amount of evidence that the virus is related to the Wuhan laboratory;Countries, exert military pressure on Taiwan, and erode Hong Kong's autonomous power hellip; hellip;
The epidemic has not yet passed in the United States, but Trump has prepared to launch a continuous offensive in China, because the date of the US election is getting close, and the current unemployment rate of the United States has increased significantly, which is absolutely unfavorable to Trump's election.It is an inevitable way to declare war!
Democratic presidential candidate Biden also used attacking China as the main promotion of campaign propaganda. According to the New York Times analysis, the Bayeng camp specially made a series of friendly statements for Trump, especially on March 27th.Clearing that our relationship with China is very good.It can be said that in response to the mainstream of China has become the politics of Washington, no matter whoever wins in the November election, it is impossible for China and the United States to confront.
The five -eye alliance led by the United States (an intelligence alliance consisting of the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) also joined the battle regimen.Evidence of the outbreak of the epidemic has killed hundreds of thousands of people around the world.
It is not easy to resolve it in a formed one after another.
The Western camp's public opinion is to prepare for the re -reshuffle layout of the global political and economic landscape after the epidemic;Compared with the disintegration of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe, these two historical events are the main characters in the United States and the Soviet Union, one can pass, and the other disappears.The change after the new crown epidemic is centered on China, how the ending is full of suspense!
In response to China's actions, the first wave is believed to be held accountable and requested China for compensation.From now on the claims of compensation, it seems that it is scared that the situation is more scared to get compensation. China will not agree, and it is also Bai Ti.
The second wave is to reduce or even gradually cut off trade with China, or impose punitive tariffs from China like the United States. In this way, China will make countermeasures and impose the same punitive tariffs on their opponents.Since China joined the WTO, Western developed countries have become China's main trading partners. Taking several countries in the Five Eyes Alliance as an example, the United Kingdom exported China in 2019 accounted for 7%of its total exports. China is the third largest export market in the UK., Second only to the United States and Germany.
Canada fell 16%of exports to China in 2019, mainly because Huawei Meng Wanzhou was detained by Canada, but China is still Canada's second largest trading partner.
Australia's trade with China in 2018 to 2019 reached AUD 230 billion (about $ 150 billion). China is Australia's largest trading partner.In recent years, foreign relations between the two countries have been tense. Australian legislation restricts Chinese capital investment in certain strategic enterprises.
In the face of huge business interests, will Western countries willing to follow the United States to insist on fighting China and even make sanctions?Taking the United States take the lead in asking allies to sanction in Huawei as an example, the action is not successful. Both Germany and the United Kingdom only promise to buy Huawei equipment limited, but it will not be fully blocked.Essence
World Factory Turn to the World Market
The third trick is to withdraw from China and decide with China in the global production chain to reduce the supply of mainland China.In fact, since the beginning of the United States levying steel and aluminum tax on the world in March 2018, the US -China tariff issues have been entangled. Since then, the United States has further sanctioned China in the field of science and technology.The movement of a global industrial supply chain is gradually unfolding.
According to the survey, the adjustment period of the production line and the supply chain is about 12 months. According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce of the Mainland, since the US tariffs imposed on the United States in July 2018, the investment in Taiwan, the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands in the second half of the yearAtrophy.Asian countries and regions, such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, also appeared in the proportion of imports in the mainland, reflecting that Asian countries and regions are moving their supply chain away from mainland China, making manufacturing components from Taiwan, Japan, and South KoreaImport demand has decreased.
However, the global production chain transfer is a long process. It is also possible to be decoupled with mainland China.From the export -to -economic system to the open economic system, further open the market, absorb global product inflows, enhance the domestic demand market, and promote the shift from the world's factories to the world market.
The United States forced away and China to get rid of
Some people say that the current Sino -US confrontation is the new Cold War. When the former US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was interviewed by the first financial interview of the mainland, the Sino -US friction caused the world economy to drop the iron curtain (November 2019).During the Cold War, the United States used to block the Soviet Union in all directions, but the two major camps of the United States and the Soviet Union were one system, and they would not return each other, let alone what cooperation!Today, China is a member of the world's economic order under the leadership of the United States. It is highly integrated with each other and has benefited from each other.
The main opponents of the United States in the past, in military or politics, can rival the United States in military or politics (such as Germany, Japan during World War II, and the Soviet Union after the war), but the economy cannot compete with the United States.In terms of strength is enough to compete with the United States, for the United States, this has never been encountered.
If the United States wants to build an economic iron curtain to deal with China, one of the ways is to force China to take away from the existing international economic system and use the US statement to not allow China to enjoy the benefits of the current global economic system.To force China to go away, the US hegemony still has sufficient power, including science and technology hegemony, US dollar hegemony, military hegemony, and public opinion hegemony.In the discussion of the new crown epidemic responsibility, the hegemony of public opinion in the United States shows its power. China is poor and can only be in the wind.In the field of military, finance and technology, the United States will continue to be in isolated and weaken China's influence.
China's response method is to order another standard, start the stove, 5G development, and the development of Beidou navigation, which are the beginning of China to get rid of the rules and standards of the United States. The latest development is that China suddenly fully promotes digital currency.It is another attempt to get rid of the US dollar hegemony to build another financial order.
In the future, it will be full of variables and wind tests. The epidemic past does not mean that life can be returned to normal. On the contrary, the days may become more difficult.
The author is a senior media person
