Tan Haojun
The first quarter of 2020 GDP increased by 4.8%month -on -month, ending the growth trend of the economy for 23 consecutive quarters (six consecutive years), and the biggest decline in the economic recession in 2008.Many analysts warned that the worst moments have not arrived.
Seeing this data, some people must think that the US economy looks better than China, and China's economic growth rate has decreased by 6.8%in the first quarter.In 2019, China's economic growth rate exceeded 6%, and the economic growth rate of the United States in 2019 was 2.3%, and the absolute decline also seemed to be much higher than that of the United States.
Obviously, this is the result of static and rigid looking at the problem, not the attitude of seeing the problem at a dynamic and objective.More importantly, the first season is not the dark moment of the US economy, and the moment of the US economy should be the second season.If the epidemic is not effectively controlled, the third quarter may also become the dark moment of the US economy.
On the contrary, the worst period of the Chinese economy has passed. With the effects of the epidemic, the Chinese economy has entered the stage of comprehensive resumption of work. Most industries have emerged from March, with obvious recovery, and economic indicators have rebounded significantly.Comprehensive indicators such as industrial added value, total retail sales of social consumer goods, and fixed asset investment, the decline in March has been greatly narrowed in March.Return to normal level or close to normal levels.
Therefore, from the perspective of the year, the Chinese economy will still be in a state of positive growth.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is also expected to grow on the Chinese economy in 2020, with a positive growth of 1.2%, and the expected growth expectations for the US economy in 2020 are 5.9%.
The fact is that the Chinese epidemic has began in late January, and preliminary control was obtained in late March.Therefore, February and March are the most affected stages of China's economic epidemic.The economic growth in the first quarter has fallen sharply, which is normal and can be fully understood.The U.S. epidemic has only started in mid -to -late March, and it entered the stage of rapid spread and diffusion in April. At present, the confirmed cases have exceeded 1 million, and it has continued to spread and spread.
The impact of the epidemic on the US economy also began in March. Therefore, March is not until the dark moment, and the first season is not the dark moment.In the first quarter, the US economic growth was better than China and was not representative.Even if the United States can control the epidemic in May, the economic operation in the second quarter is definitely worse than the first season.Especially in April and May, the economic growth in the United States will be very bad.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the US GDP will fall by 34%in the second quarter, while President Trump's White House Economic Consultant Commission Hassert said the US unemployment rate in the second quarter may reach 16%to 20%.Fed Chairman Powell believes that the United States will have a double -digit unemployment rate, and economic activities in the second quarter will decline unprecedentedly.
Because of this, the US economic growth rate in the first quarter of the United States fell by 4.8%. It only started, and higher negative growth was still behind.If the Chinese economy has passed the worst period of the first quarter and entered the dawn period, the US economy has just entered the dark period. How long will it take to walk in the dark and when to enter the dawn period, it is the most.Anxious question.
The longer the dark period, the more problems, the more serious the consequences, and it is self -evident.This also means that the US economy and the Chinese economy are likely to occur in the second quarter.More than 6%.
It is particularly noteworthy that at present, the number of unemployed in the United States has exceeded 26 million. In the next time, the number of people who have lost their jobs may increase, and corporate bankruptcy is more serious.Then, the US economy that depends on the growth of consumer streaming will also increase the phenomenon of severe consumption due to the sharp increase in the unemployment rate and the continuous increase of unemployed personnel. The streaming force of consumption on economic growth has greatly weakened. The government's unemployment burden will greatly increase, Form a vicious circle.
Although many forecasts also believe that from the second half of the year, the US economy may rebound.However, from the perspective of the prevention and control of the epidemic, it may not be so simple.In particular, the prevention and control of the epidemic is in accordance with the US government's prevention and control strategy and the people's attitude towards the epidemic, will it be repeated and difficult to predict. If the epidemic is repeated, it will be quite difficult to recover from the US economy.The fourth quarter of Trump's hopes for the economy will only be a dream.
Generally speaking, the economic growth rate of the first quarter of the United States is only an opening whiter for the decline in the economy. Only in April will really start the curtain of the US economy.The essential.For the United States, only if you work hard to control the epidemic, can you save the decline and decline of the economy.Otherwise, the US economy is really dangerous.Even if the US economy is strong, it cannot withstand the full -scale impact of the epidemic.
Therefore, Trump's restoration economy may be more wishful wishes.According to the US government's attitude and practice of epidemic prevention, only the economy can really enter the recovery channel.Otherwise, you will only walk on the road of recession.In an interview with the media, the former world bank economist Case also agreed with the media interview. He also said: I think the real recovery will wait until 2021 or later.
The author is Chinese Financial Reviewer
