Zheng Weibin
With the approaching May 20, cross -strait relations are becoming more and more tense.Whether Beijing's extreme pressure applied to Taiwan can force Tsai Ing -wen to say something in an inauguration speech; inhibitory, Beijing has never expected that the DPP can make changes in cross -strait relations.
Since the presidential election of Taiwan in January, the tension of both sides of the strait has never stopped.However, many recent incidents seem to make people mistakenly think that the two sides of the strait will return to the old era before the opening of exchanges in 1987.
The recent incident was suddenly announced by Beijing unilaterally that the graduates of schools at all levels in mainland China stopped the pilot work of studying in Taiwan.This is the exchanges between the two sides of the strait after the sudden stop of the mainland passengers going to Taiwan in the middle of last year.
In Taiwan, in order to prevent the spread of the coronary virus epidemic, it has also announced that it has been banned from entering the country earlier this year. Since then, the number of children and their children, the number of direct flights on both sides of the strait, and cities have been greatly reduced.
Under the dual effects of epidemic and politics, the flow of people on both sides of the strait is basically isolated.
The flow of people has stopped, will the logistics face unpredictable?The Cross -Strait Economic Cooperation Architecture Agreement (ECFA) signed 10 years ago is about to expire in June this year.It is not surprising that the two sides of the strait quickly return to the old era and enter the state of confrontation.
Cross -strait relations have embarked on the road of separation, and it has been unable to return to the track of the past years.
Looking back at the history of Taiwan since 1949, unified independence (identity) and democratic politics are the two basic veins that determine the political development of Taiwan.
After experiencing the rotation of three political parties, the election system in Taiwan has gradually improved. As for the point of the democratic system, each has its own views.But no matter what, compared to the two Chiang period, it has obviously made great progress.
But it is more noteworthy that in the past ten years, Taiwan ’s democratic politics and election system has been deeply disturbed by the unified issue (identity).Essence
By 2020, this identity of unified independence with cross -strait relations has finally no longer broken.The development route of democratic politics has continued, and identity has clearly pointed to Taiwan itself.The identity of the Chinese identity entangled with mainland China seems to be accompanied by the death of typical characters like Hao Baicun, and no longer involves the Taiwanese on the island.
This is both a great atmosphere for the anti -Chinese defense of the Republic of China created in the election in January. It also benefits from the outbreak of this crown disease, so that more Taiwanese residents agree with their own identity.Regardless of whether this approval is due to the needs of epidemic prevention, or distinguishing between you and my populism.Some of them already have the permanent residence rights in Taiwan and still have the color of the mainland.
It can be said that Taiwanese have basically completed the reconstruction of themselves and the world, and the original cross -strait relations framework will also greatly change.This is probably the reason why the 1992 consensus and one country, two systems are increasingly unable to win recognition in Taiwan society.
Because of this epidemic, not only the identity of the Taiwanese has received quite wide support, but also in terms of institutional and governance methods. The Taiwanese version of epidemic prevention methods also faced with the mainland internationally.Although Taiwan donates farmers such as masks and other countries in other countries, far less than the mainland, but because of the blessing of the Taiwan model in some countries in the United States and European countries, Taiwan’s anti -epidemic and forewills are facing Beijing. To some extent, to some extentWeaken the grand narrative established by Beijing.
What's more, this is obviously not only the contrast of epidemic prevention, but also regarded as the comparison of two different governance modes.
Originally, the choice of governance should not be zero -sum game, nor non -black or white, and not this is the rejection.However, in the current background of time and space, it has been upgraded to two different systems, and even a positive face -to -face duel.The contribution of politicians and media in some countries such as the United States has obviously made cross -strait relations increasingly impossible.The populist/nationalist situation between the two sides of the strait may trigger more friction and conflict on both sides of the strait.
Another background worthy of attention is that even during the epidemic, Beijing's military aircraft still bypass Taiwan, and even a record of the first time in the night.In addition, other military exercises and aircraft carriers pass through the eastern waters of Taiwan, etc., and they all put pressure on Taiwan with powerful means.
From this perspective, Beijing obviously has not changed its rhythm and planning because of the changes in Taiwan's political situation and the complete turn of public opinion.On the contrary, Taiwan ’s political changes and international patterns will change due to the epidemic, which will further accelerate the changes in cross -strait relations.The old problem of the original dust suddenly looked up because of this.
Therefore, maybe Cai Yingwen said in an inauguration speech, it is not important.History is destined to fall into the inertial track that falls into it, mixed with a variety of political forces and purposes, colliding with each other, and what kind of results will eventually produce, it is probably unpredictable.
The author is Beijing Freelance
