Professional service agencies Deloitte issued a report prediction to predict that the growth of GDP (GDP) in China's second quarter will be flat; but as the capacity utilization rate gradually recovers normal and economic stimulus measures are effective, the mainland economy will recover in the second half of the year.And this growth momentum will drive the continuous growth of import demand in Hong Kong and Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore.
According to Reuters, Deloitte's latest issue focuses on the Asian series of reports. Under the premise that no major risk events have occurred, the Chinese mainland economy will recover from the influence of the new crown virus epidemic in the second half of this year, which significantly promotes the economy in other parts of Asia.develop.
Xu Sitao, the chief economist of Deloitte China, predicts that the mainland's last global financial crisis will not appear again.On the contrary, the government's stimulus to the economy is likely to focus on the investment in new technology infrastructure, family consumption incentives, and targeted credit loose.This fiscal stimulus measure is expected to be launched one after another, and it is expected to drive the annual GDP growth by more than 3%.
However, Deloitte said that due to Hong Kong's high dependence on mainland tourists and the exchange rate system linked to the US dollar, the economy is expected to shrink significantly.
Hong Kong's fourth quarter of last year's GDP fell 2.9%year -on -year. In order to record the contraction of the year in the second quarter of consecutive quarters, the local social events involving violence in the quarter further crack down on economic atmosphere and consumer and tourism -related activities.The government will announce the pre -estimate of the GDP in the first quarter of this year (May 4).
For the outlook of Asia's economic prospects, the report states that a large amount of capital outflows have emerged in Asia. In the first quarter of this year, the total outflow of outflows was as high as 83.3 billion US dollars.Low risk.The US Libor-OIS interest difference between the global banking system's credit pressure has signs a sign of pressure, and regional currencies, stock markets, and bonds are likely to further fall.
At the same time, the report states that the emergence of the US dollar risk -free boom may threaten the ability of the Asian economy to pay the US dollar denomination debt; a large number of bonds will pay repayment in the next 12 months, and corporate debt financing may face severe challenges;The comprehensive impact of rapid slowing down, increasingly tightening the financial environment, and the high leverage ratio, the banking industry may also bear a large risk of instability.
