Takayuhuai
In early 2020, the 2019 coronary virus disease attacked the entire territory of China led by Hubei Province. The epidemic prompted the Chinese government to make a city -sealed decision and stopped the flow of people and things, which had a huge impact on China and the world economy.
China announced the economic indicators from January to February this year, a year -on -year decrease of 20.5%, exports decreased by 17.2%, industrial added value decreased by 13.5%, fixed asset investment decreased by 24.5%, which were about 20%from last year.There is a huge impact at home and abroad.In response to the impact of the crown disease, what countermeasures have the Chinese government adopted and how to evaluate it?
The serious impact of the crown disease on the Chinese economy is especially manifested in the double blow of supply and demand.
In terms of supply, the most serious impact, it can be said to be the core manufacturing industry of the global supply chain.In order to control the epidemic, the migrant workers who returned home were unable to return to the city, and there were insufficient manpower in various places. In addition, due to the late resumption of work in Hubei Province and other places, the problem of insufficient parts headed by the automotive industry was increasingly serious.In addition, farmers engaged in agricultural areas in coastal areas have also reached a new high due to insufficient personnel in home, and the prices of crops such as vegetables.
On the one hand, severe people in the above fields are insufficient, and on the other hand, there are many crises such as unemployment and salary reduction in services such as services.The city survey in February this year showed that the unemployment rate was 6.2%, a significant increase from 5.3%in January, and set a new high since the announcement of statistics.In addition, many small and medium -sized enterprises that have suffered from difficulty in capital turnover have implemented salary reduction measures with the opportunity to seal the city.
In the face of such demand and supply, measures taken by the Chinese government are providing ample flowing funds to companies that are suffering from incompetence of funds.On February 1, the five departments of the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a notice on strengthening the party's leadership and providing a strong political guarantee for strengthening the party's leadership and providing a strong political guarantee for the prevention and control of the epidemic.After receiving the notice, the People's Bank of China immediately went to enterprises in areas such as Hubei Province, industries in severe epidemics, industries that produced medical products and living materials, and industries such as retail, accommodation, diet, small sporadic enterprises, etc., which are more affected by urban blockade.For the object, a low interest financing of the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) of the loan market stipulated by the People's Bank of China was implemented.
However, companies that are in trouble due to the decline in demand require the help of financial policies. On the other hand, in the industries of bottlenecks such as insufficient labor force, prices must be alert to rising prices, which is extremely difficult for financial policies.
To this end, at a relatively early stage, the Chinese government successively implemented a term exempting policy for social security and housing provident fund, especially for small and medium -sized enterprises that affected the areas of the epidemic as the object, and launched financial measures such as tax cuts.So far, it is said that the scale of total fiscal expenditure accounts for 1.2%of GDP (GDP).
However, it is enough to ease the impact of the economy.Affected by the expansion of global infection after March, major countries in the world have also launched emergency economic countermeasures to support national life.The total cash of the United States paid the cash of the people was 2.2 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 10%of GDP.Germany and Hong Kong also implemented cash payment for individuals and operators through fiscal expenditures.So far, the Chinese government's practice of directly subsidizing national income through fiscal expenditure is extremely negative.
However, the Chinese government has also acknowledged the need to further launch fiscal funds.At the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held on March 27, it eased the fiscal deficit of about 3%of the GDP, approved the issuance of special government bonds after a lapse of 13 years, and officially began to launch fiscal policy.The government decides to expand the construction of high -speed rail construction, 5G and other high -speed communication networks, data centers, artificial intelligence, and intelligent factories, that is, the so -called public investment of new infrastructure construction (new infrastructure), as the focus of economic stimulus policy in the futureEssence
In summary, the characteristics of China's economic policy are, first, with their compensation for personal income, China attaches more importance to providing low interest loans to enterprises.; 3. When stimulating the economy through fiscal policies, prioritize infrastructure construction that pays attention to efficiency.
It can be said that the Chinese government attaches importance to the efficiency of resources, and is more prioritized to the impact of supply than demand, which is a corresponding way to faithfully be loyal to the mainstream economics.In this sense, the corresponding measures of the Chinese government are centered on the emphasis on cash subsidies and wage guarantees of Trump, which provides workers with the opposite of the economic countermeasures that provide relief and ease the impact on demand.
However, the Chinese government attaches too much attention to economic efficiency, and has risen sharply in the unemployment rate. It is still questionable to have insufficient relief for small -scale operators, and whether the relief of workers in the uneasy employment environment is still in doubt.Now the sound of such a society has hardly been mentioned on the media at home and abroad.But this goes on, making people worry about the original split of the internal social classes in China, which may deteriorate.
As the crisis of the crown disease is getting worse, the virus is popular around the world. It is expected that its countermeasures will be long -term and must continue to pay attention to China's economic policies and its side effects.
The author is a professor at Kobe University in Japan
