Industrial and Commercial Times Society
U.S. President Trump released 18 pages of the White House guidelines on April 16, shouting that he would restore the United States from May 1st.The sound of irritability is endless. However, in fact, the power of the school, restaurants, shops, and public places is actually open in the hands of local governments below the states. Trump shouted to restart early.The dominant power belongs to one of the political dramas that compete for the power of the central government and the local government.From this perspective, Trump is successful. Starting from this Friday (May 1), states must follow the guidelines announced by the White House and based on the scientific data of confirmed diagnosis.Freedom of action and economic activities.
As a locomotive of the global economy, the energy of the restart of economic activities is related to the strength of the global economic recovery. In recent months, the V -shaped, U -shaped, W, or L -type recovery models that have been discussed in various circles will from May 1st.Formally start drawing lines.
The speed of restarting the US economy is the biggest variable of Taiwan's economic glory this year.Taiwan's economic performance last year was bright. The first GDP exceeded US $ 600 billion, reaching $ 605 billion, and the GDP priced at NT $ 18.9 trillion, of which domestic consumption accounted for 9.87 trillion yuan, about 52.2%of GDP, maintained to maintain it, maintaining maintenance.Compared with consumption, the proportion of years has been in the past six years, which has been at NT $ 12 trillion in the past six years, which is the key to Taiwan's economic boom.
Taiwan has excellent war and epidemic results against the new coronal virus. The next challenge is in economic operations. This part of Taiwan has been impacted by the factors that have been moved by overseas, and it is more difficult.The Ministry of Economic Affairs announced on April 20th. This is the leading indicator of foreign trade activities. The results are unexpectedly excellent, with an annual growth rate of 4.3%, and the amount exceeds 40 billion US dollars.
However, the Department of Statistics of the Ministry of Economic Affairs also admits that the amount of orders for exports in April is estimated to be only 338 to 35.3 billion US dollars, which may decrease by 6.3%to 10.3%compared with the same period last year, and a larger decrease of 12.3%to 16%compared with US $ 40.2 billion in March.The Ministry of Economic Affairs investigated nearly 2,000 export manufacturers. The first -line exporters had high concerns about European and American demand, and the demand for order was reduced by more than $ 5 billion.It can be seen that the United States and Europe have a great impact on Taiwan export manufacturers.
The governors of the United States are mostly active in restarting the economy and attitude. According to the information released by Vice President Pence, by April 25, the governor of Sixteen State has proposed a plan to restart the economy.The state governments themselves are the largest affected households in the economic blockade. Taking New York State as an example, the original budget annual tax was $ 95 billion, and it is estimated that it will be 14%short. The tax gap is as high as US $ 13.3 billion (about NT $ 400 billion).But even if the governor of New York was eager to recover the economy, he would extend the STAY-ATA-HOME again on April 16 to May 16.
The trend of Trump and the governor of various states is optimistic, but the speed may be slower than expected. The number of people diagnosed in the United States will exceed one million people this week.There are new highs of more than 36,000 people in a single day. If the advanced countries are used as indicators, Taiwan, which has been in a state of zero -diagnosis for a long time, Italy and Spain, where the number of diagnosis has declined significantly, and the isolation policy will not dare to loosen sharply. TrumpThe way to restart the economy is obviously very far away.
From March to April, the global stock market rose sharply from a low point. It is the effect of benefiting from the water flooding financial market caused by the central bank's printed banknote, and covering the lesion of a substantial economic recession.However, after entering May, the true appearance of the economy will become clearer. In fact, even if the government has lifted the blockade one after another, the store can open it, and it is impossible to return to the level of activity before the outbreak of the epidemic.Some guests must also sell the cabins in the form of plums. Each row of six people in each row of walking tracks should be empty in the middle row, and at most it can only be restored to two -thirds of the transportation energy.
In the same way, the restaurants that were gathered in the original crowd could only serve half to two -thirds of the tables. The cinema had to sell tickets at a time. The school would start again.The system will become the norm. Employees who go to work in the office must do a good job of social distance. They must wear masks and receive virus testing.In addition, one of the most important consumer activities in the United States is sports events. When the professional baseball league and American football can start and how to start, it is the most important milestone to restart the economy.
Political leaders are expected to shorten the timing of economic recession and return economic activities to the level before the outbreak of the epidemic.Traveling has been completely destroyed, and a large number of unemployed people depend on government subsidies, and the results have also caused comprehensive changes in the consumption and savings of the public.
Trump's economic restart will be very loud, but the government and business owners cannot ignore the fact that the economic recovery, the change of consumption structure, and the decline of the people's financial management capabilities.The footsteps may be very slow. Taiwan's import and export manufacturers are facing a structural impact. This is a rigorous test for Taiwanese manufacturers to respond to the change.
