Chen Xiang seconds
The sudden crown epidemic flow on the global economy, supply chain, and production factors, which caused the most serious impact since the Second World War, and also caused a shadow of relations between countries.In particular, the US's public opinion offensive after the outbreak of the United States has made the international situation more confusing.Many scholars in China and the United States believe that international order is undergoing fundamental transformation.
What is international order?The so -called international order contains at least two elements: the distribution structure, behavior and behavior of the country.Among them, behavior and ways to get along refer to how the country maintains each other's security, such as the balanced power based on the traditional recognition of each other, the norms, rules, and institutional systems after World War II.Will the crown disease change the elements of these two aspects?
First, the power structure in the international system has not undergone fundamental changes.Since 2010, (2027) China's economy surpassed the United States, but these are only based on the total number of Chinese economies and maintained hypothetical hypotheses in dual or two digits.
As the Chinese decision -making level calmly judges, the Chinese economy is entering the stage of stable growth in a lower speed.With the alliance and partnership system, the US dollar hegemony, and the world's largest economy, it is also the country with the richest technology and innovation. Its strategic capabilities are difficult to shake.
In addition, the United States, which has advertised democracy and freedom as Zhao Zhao, has always occupied an overwhelming position in terms of military security investment and the advanced degree and scale of weapons and equipment.Therefore, the narrowing of the gap between China and the United States is of course the general trend, but China still takes time to test the test of the United States and the opportunity of the times.
Second, the influence distribution of international mechanism operation has been adjusted, but the status of American leaders will not change.The relative completeness of standards, rules and systems is the founding of international order after World War II by the international order, and it is also the cornerstone of the United States to lead the international system.China, India and other emerging economies have become increasing in international mechanisms, which is essentially a natural process that matches the growth of total economic growth and a huge population scale.However, the US economic volume, military strength, global strategy, and alliance and partnership system determine that no other country can replace it and become the leader of international mechanism operations.
Third, the global governance system will be presented in new forms.Global governance is the iconic characteristics of the development of international order in the 21st century after 1945, which is generated and existing in accordance with international mechanisms.Although the crown disease epidemic will not change the distribution pattern of the influence of international mechanism operation, it has shaken the confidence of countries to carry out international cooperation and provides public products with each other, which will inevitably bring major adjustments to the content of the international mechanism.Global issues will not decrease, and global governance cooperation will not disappear or stop, but it is difficult to continue to rely on the model of providing public products in large powers. What form will be a topic facing countries.
Fourth, regional integration will occupy more advantages in the competition with globalization, and competition between regions will appear.The crown disease has triggered the international community's reflection on globalization, and also caused the global supply chain to break.
Developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom have issued signals to withdraw capital from China. They are politics and Mingzhe to become priority strategies in various countries. Faced with national security issues, the global retreat seems to be difficult to stop.Regional integration will become an alternative to maintaining the continuous operation of the supply chain in various countries. The competition between regions will replace the competition between countries and become the main axis of the political and economic order.
Fifth, the concept of national security has been strengthened again. The world's low and high political divisions will gradually weaken, and the theory of functionalism will fade out of the historical stage.The low -degree political cooperation that emphasizes functionalism and the theoretical assumptions of high political spillover seems to have been performed by the crown disease epidemic, and countries have put national security in a priority position.
In fact, since US President Trump came to power, the United States' siege strategy initiated by Huawei 5G has already shown the calculation of re -pushing the international political trend back to the priority era of national security issues.The crown disease epidemic not only strengthened this concept, but also provided an opportunity for the Western world to link public health security, marine security and other low -level political areas, and linked to national security issues.
Therefore, the crown disease epidemic has caused many countries to doubt the current international mechanisms and also add a gap between the country, but it does not seem to change the existing power pattern and the international order of rules and mechanisms.However, this assumption has to be based on an important premise. The country has a common awareness of avoiding war and maintaining each other's peace of mind, and uses this cognition to guide the practice of domestic affairs.
From this perspective, people need to be vigilant that the crown disease epidemic may become an exacerbation of the national and populist trend of nations and populism, and become a reason for the war in some countries to launch war, and then evolve into the fuse of conflict between countries.
In fact, since entering the 21st century, the international system is dissatisfied with the existing order and its development direction.As the founder and leader of international order after 1945, the United States increasingly feels that China's emerging economies such as China have rely on the strategy of ride -to -vehicle vehicles, not only to obtain large relative benefits, but also challenges its hegemony position.
The American allies, such as Japan, the United Kingdom, France, etc., are not only increasingly increasing in China's power (politics, economy, security, and culture) in international order, and they are annoyed by the leaders limited by the United States.
After the financial crisis in 2008, as China became the world's second economy, the relative speed advantage of the development of major emerging economies was more obvious.China's Cold War curb network has been rolled out.
However, there are obvious differences in whether to resort to the conflict of direct warfare, especially after Trump came to power, the differences between the United States and its alliance countries have expanded to the unprecedented level.
In the United States, as historians generally believe that the United States has always rely on war to bridge the differences between races and condense patriotism;There are large differences in lightning changes in comprehensive competitors, and conflicts with China have been delayed.
However, the crown disease epidemic is quietly changing this pattern. The domestic and its Western worlds led by the United States and its leaders are brewing the wave of anti -China, revenge and China, which are unprecedented after World War II.Putting ideological coats for the crown disease, which is associated with issues such as the South China Sea issue and human rights, and finally weave a picture of the Chinese picture in the eyes of the Western world.
The public opinion war initiated by the United States not only greatly weakened China's soft power, but also accumulated negative emotions in China in the international community.Regardless of whether this strategy is planned or unintentionally, it is prepared for the United States and its allies to prepare for China's war.What really changes international order is not the crown disease epidemic itself, but the national and populism that the Chinese nation and populism have been enlarged by countries.
The author is an associate researcher at the South China Sea Research Institute
