01 view Although the global epidemic is severe, it can not prevent the bright fight between countries, and the saying that foreign countries have always appeared in China in recent years.Recently, the United States and Japan, which are affected by the epidemic, are brewing plans to support their domestic enterprises to withdraw from China.According to Bloomberg, the Japanese government's financial support launched at the beginning of the month for the epidemic was used to support Japanese companies to divert production lines to Southeast Asia or move back to Japan.As soon as the news came out, the US White House economic consultant Larry Kudlow also stated that the United States should follow this, and even invest in US companies to build factories.Some comments who are indifferent to China have pointed out that after the epidemic, foreign capital will be withdrawn from the air group, causing China to hit Yunyun.To understand whether foreign capital will withdraw from China, we can start with three issues.
Question 1: Can the United States call a hundred responses?
Many comments on China often have a previous setting: Once the United States starts to move against China, developed countries will follow the pace of the United States, as if the United States will make a hundred responses as long as the United States whimpenes.However, although this discussion has continued to appear, there are few examples to prove.In 2018, the Sino -U.S. The trade war broke out. At that time, some comments proposed that the United States launched a trade war to increase tariffs, and developed countries will cooperate with China to add tariffs to China.Wilbur Ross, Minister of Commerce, also pointed out that it should expand the clauses in the US -Mexico Free Trade Agreement (that is, if the country has a free trade agreement with the non -market economy region, the United States can cancel the agreement) to all countries.However, the global blocking of China is just a thunderous, the rain is small, and the terms of the poison pills are still disappeared.
For example, the United States has blocked Huawei and the United States stopped allocating funds to the World Health Organization. At the beginning, it was discussed that it would have a hundred response effects.But on the time of fake, it is not difficult to see that the impact of the United States in the international situation today is not so different, but it is just a commander -free commander.The United States has to protect its own interests, and even explicitly play the banner of the United States, but basically cannot convince those allies to fully believe that it is in line with its interests MDash; MDash; for the European Union, Japan, South Korea,What are the actual benefits of the United States' hegemony to them?There is an immortal saying in international relations: there are no forever friends, only eternal interests, the United States cannot persuade the allies with profit, and developed countries will not just echo the call of the United States to block China because of ideology.
Question 2: Are Americans willing to buy American goods?
The idea of promoting the return of the industry with the epidemic is likely to have no effect.At the beginning of the outbreak of China's outbreak, some foreign investment followed the Western main theme that the CCP regime had risked, and it may be considered to relocate the risk of China's risk.However, after a few months, China's treatment of epidemic has achieved results. Instead, Western countries have failed to say that the epidemic in response to the epidemic in the United States and Japan can be described as a collapse. The opportunity to move out of China with the opportunity to move out of China.The Japanese trade agency (Jetro) Guangzhou Office investigated more than 300 Japanese companies in early April, and only 2.9%answered this time as an opportunity to discuss the transfer. The other 5.4%answeredIt is only 8.3%in total, which is significantly lower than the same survey in February.
The biggest reason for the fact that companies to choose to produce products are costs.Enterprises should take into account the cost of production, transportation costs with sales, tariffs and non -tariff trade barriers, and finally pursue their interests to maximize their benefits.For consumers, although the price is not unique, it is also a very decisive factor.A small air conditioner made in China sells $ 200, but the same American manufacturing is sold nearly $ 500, but the quality gap between the two may not be obvious.Consumers in the United States can only resort to love for the country. The reality is that most consumers still choose cheaper Chinese goods.Otherwise, the manufacturing industry will not be lost in the past two decades.In business, even if the United States really provides funds for companies to relocate the manufacturing industry back to the United States. If the long -term operation after relocation is unprofitable, this funding results are very limited.
Advanced regions such as the United States have long dependent on Chinese manufacturing, and many have long -term trade deficits to China.A trade deficit means that the goods produced by Americans are not enough for Americans to consume now, and they must be imported from foreign countries such as China.If the United States wants to eliminate the deficit or even become a surplus, it will either reduce the goods that Americans can consume in the future, or Americans will increase their workload to maintain their original consumption.In any case, whether the company moves back to the United States will eventually look at profit and consumers' wishes, and it is not that the U.S. government's subjectively proposes to move back to the United States overnight.
Question 3: How do China respond to the increase in costs?
Of course, this is not to say that there is no pressure on China's movement.In fact, China's labor costs have continued to rise in the past two decades, and the price advantage of Chinese goods is decreasing.Before the trade war, foreign companies were planning to move out of China to set up factories in Southeast Asia.After the trade war broke out, some companies accelerated their movement in order to avoid tariffs.On the whole, this is the result of continuous development of China, and it is necessary to look rationally.
Beijing proposes to establish a well -off society in an all -round way, and China's labor costs rising are irreversible. Therefore, it is necessary to face the situation where foreign capital will be moved out sooner or later.With the development of China's economic strength, its exports will inevitably decline. As long as foreign capital leaves China is not a beep, China has sufficient time to slowly adapt to this change.Looking forward to the future of China's economic development, it is unrealistic to try to prevent enterprises from moving out. It is unrealistic at all. To maintain the motivation of China's economic development, China must better optimize its domestic demand market.
China has a huge domestic demand market of 1.4 billion people. As long as it can continue to develop, on the one hand, it can reduce excessive dependence on exports, and on the other hand, it can also attract more companies that see more in China to stay in China.Therefore, the most critical economic issues in China at the moment are not enterprises move out of China, but how they can stimulate the domestic demand market.
