Yu Hong
Regardless of whether it is a domestic economy and social level or a global impact, the impact of the 2019 Coronary Virus epidemic has far exceeded the Shati crisis that broke out in 2003.Chinese leader Xi Jinping acknowledged that the crown disease epidemic was a public health crisis with the fastest dissemination, the widest range of infection, and the most difficult prevention and control since the founding of the People's Republic of China.
Although China takes a comprehensive prevention and control of epidemic measures and the epidemic spread is initially controlled, the global epidemic situation is becoming increasingly tense.As of the afternoon of April 21, the epidemic has spread to 210 countries and regions around the world, with more than 2.5 million diagnosis cases, and killed more than 170,000 people.
Facing the outbreak and spread of infectious diseases, countries with high openness and connectivity are very fragile, and the risk of input -type cases is very high.The virus does not spread across borders at a fast speed regardless of any national boundary and border.Corresponding to the crown disease epidemic is not only a problem of China. It has become a worldwide problem, convenient cross -border Unicom, convenient virus cross -border transmission, and increasing the possibility of cross -border outbreak of infectious diseases.
Just as a silver coin has two sides, interconnection is not perfect, things that should not be interconnected, such as viruses, also interconnected with the improvement of traffic facilities and the facilitation of personnel flow.Countries around the world must review the cross -border challenges and interconnection risks brought about by the diffusion of the epidemic, and take effective measures to respond.
In the early stage of the procomere disease epidemic in December 2019, several Chinese doctors discussed the potential risks of the epidemic and reminding the new virus outbreak in the domestic social media group.And forced to sign the commandment.Li Wenliang, the trained doctor, has died of the epidemic disease.
Professionals who punish the truth, local authorities to respond to the lag, inaction of public health authorities, and the collective loss of collective speech by the Chinese media, which led to missed the golden time for the outbreak of the epidemic for more than a month.The spread of the epidemic not only allowed China to pay an inestimable economic and social cost, but also made the world pay the price.
China's current institutional system can use various resources in the mobilized state to prevent and control the epidemic at any cost, and use Chinese terms to talk about concentrated power to do major events.But the irony is that under such a lack of transparency, politics and stability maintains everything, but the national disaster caused by artificial concealment cannot be avoided.The Shats epidemic that broke out in 2003 should not be forgotten, and the tragedy has only been 17 years in the past.In just 17 years, China has experienced two consecutive artificial factors that the infectious diseases caused by the out of control and the upstream, which proves that China has not established a transparent modern public health governance system and crisis emergency management system, let alone realize the national governance system and governance capacitymodernization.
The epidemic forces the Chinese government's work and policies to turn to China
The Chinese economy, which has slowed down significantly in recent years, is undoubtedly worse, especially the service industries such as catering, hotels, tourism, entertainment, leisure and transportation have entered the cold winter period.The majority of manufacturers are suspended or semi -suspended.The first quarter of the first quarter of 2020 announced by the National Bureau of Statistics of China was -6.8%, which was the first negative growth since its data began in 1992.This data shows that due to the impact of the epidemic, China's economy and manufacturing have declined.
China adopts the whole government and the whole society model to mobilize all resources and the strength of the army in the country to fight against the epidemic.The focus and policy orientation of the Chinese government and the entire bureaucratic institution has also been forced to turn to the interior, prioritizing the epidemic situation, as well as the impact on domestic society, economy and people's livelihood.Chinese diplomats are busy explaining and propagating China's anti -epidemic measures to the world's countries and the international community, hoping to win confidence in China's ability to eventually control the epidemic.
China's financial institutions have shifted limited funds to domestic enterprises and individuals affected by the affected by the epidemic.According to the data released by the China Banking Regulatory Commission in February, in less than a month from January 26 to February 14th, Chinese banks and other financial institutions have put in as much as 537 billion yuan (about 107.9 billion yuanYuan) Low interest rate discount credit funds.In order to achieve stabilizing the domestic financial market and providing the flow of funds required by the enterprise, China's financial institutions must provide tens of thousands of affected enterprises in the next period of time and provide urgent need of liquidity credit funds to deal with corporate cash in cash.Short flow and great pressure on debt.
China and Global Industrial Chain
Today, China occupies a pivotal position in the world economy and global industrial chain. The degree of connection between China and the world is higher than ever before. China is an important engine of global trade growth.In 2003, China accounted for only 6%of the total global trade, and this number rose to 12%in 2018.In 2018, China's total foreign trade reached US $ 4.6 trillion (6.5 trillion yuan), becoming one of the world's largest cargo trading countries.In 2018, China's economy accounted for more than 16%of GDP.According to the 2019 China Relations Report of China and World Relations, China has become the largest export destination in 33 countries, and the largest source of imports in 33 countries.The epidemic not only affects the Chinese economy, but also impacts the world economy, as well as the normal operation of the global industrial chain and supply chain.
China has become the world's most important manufacturing country, with the most complete industrial category and competitive capacity.China is in an important link in the global industrial chain and supply chain, and many industries have a high degree of dependence on China's supply chain.For example, China is dominant in electronic communication, automobile manufacturing, machinery and equipment manufacturing and textile and clothing industry chains, and it is also an important consumer market for the final products of these industries.From 2015 to 2017, China is the world's second largest foreign investment destination.80%of the world's top 500 multinational companies have carried out business in China.Malls and supermarket shelves in various countries are in an important position.
The provinces that are most affected by the crown disease, such as Guangdong, Henan, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, are not only economic provinces, but also areas with the highest degree of global supply chain.Chinese companies, especially small and medium -sized enterprises, are facing multiple challenges such as tariffs on US tariffs and Sino -US trade war, factory discontinuation, raw material supply chain interruption, and re -production difficulties. To restore corporate production capacity to the level before the outbreak, it takes a longer sectiontime.
The stopping of Chinese factories will hinder the effective operation of the global industrial chain and supply chain, and produce a huge bone effect wave on the world economy.The suspension of Chinese enterprises directly spread to Cambodia and Vietnam's textile industry, Indian pharmaceutical industry, Turkish clothing industry to South Korea and France's automobile industry, resulting in the production line of related industries forced to reduce and idle.The greater the global industry's dependence on China as a supply chain and the Chinese consumer market, the greater the influence.
The epidemic has prompted many countries to rethink the risks of the country's economy relying on China and China's core position in the global industrial chain.On February 21, the French Minister of Economy and Finance Lemal said in the impact of reflection on the epidemic that the epidemic showed that the international was irresponsible and unreasonable to China. ThereforeIn the automotive and pharmaceutical industry.
Wuhan City and Hubei Province are the most loved areas of French companies to invest in China and the most concentrated places in French companies. Peugeot Citroen, Renault, Schneider, Austo, and Suez Energy have a huge investment in this area.The epidemic has the greatest impact on French companies and factories in China.
After joining the World Trade Organization in 2002, China gradually formed a strong global competitive advantage in the world. China has contributed more than 35%of the global manufacturing output.However, the impact of the epidemic is also weakening.The epidemic shows that the global industrial chain relies on China's vulnerability, and has also questioned the stability and reliability of multinational companies in Chinese manufacturing.For example, Apple, the United States, has stated that the impact of the suspension of production by Chinese foundry factories will affect its global supply of smartphones.
IncreasingThe more multinational companies, the more multinational companies have begun to re -examine the importance of the diversification of the supply chain of the enterprise. They cannot put eggs in a basket. The scattered and reorganization process of the global supply chain may accelerate.The epidemic will be an important turning point in the global supply chain reorganization process. The severe epidemic situation will accelerate the general manufacturing industry.The American Chamber of Commerce in China released the impact report of coronary virus on February 27. According to the questionnaire survey made by 169 member companies from February 17th to 20th, one -third of the company said thatThey will move their business out of China.
Nevertheless, the supply chain is not an easy thing to move away from China. It must be at least two to three years, and the cost is also very high.Regardless of production capacity, complete supporting facilities, product quality and stability, or labor quality and domestic security, it is difficult for other countries to compete with China.Faced with the spread of the epidemic in the world, where should multinational companies move the supply chain?
Affects the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative
The Chinese leadership has shifted the working center to the country to give priority to the impact of various aspects of the epidemic.Against this background, the promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative was also forced to slow down.The impact of the epidemic on the Belt and Road Initiative is mainly from two aspects: First, due to the influence of domestic enterprises' suspension of production and production, the raw materials and engineering equipment required for projects under construction are limited in China.In addition, some re -production and re -production enterprises have also been required to convert production capacity to give priority to the production of medical supplies that are urgently needed by anti -epidemic.
Taking the Southeast Asia as an example, the Yawan high -speed rail project in Indonesia is a landmark project to promote the Belt and Road Institute in the region. Many Chinese enterprises and engineering and technical personnel participate in the project construction.Indonesia lacks relevant experience in the construction of large railways and related technical personnel reserves, and also lacks competitive domestic enterprises, which can participate in the construction of the Yawan high -speed rail.Raw material procurement, engineering equipment manufacturing, locomotive parts, vehicle supporting products, vehicle signals and safe operation control systems, all depend on Chinese manufacturers.
Although the Chinese authorities require various enterprises to resume work under the conditions of preventing and controlling epidemic conditions, in the face of high -contagious epidemic, it is undoubtedly a dilemma to effectively prevent and control the epidemic and prevent workers infection.EssenceIn the face of the shortage of protective supplies such as masks, the company's rework personnel cannot be resumed immediately, facing a 14 -day isolation period.In addition, companies are facing various raw material shortages and limits of logistics transportation, and it is easy to comprehensively restore the level of production capacity until the level of outbreak.
Second, due to the restrictions taken by many countries on the flow of personnel, Chinese engineering and technical personnel have been affected after the rework of the Lunar New Year, thereby slowing down the progress of related projects.Due to the spread of the epidemic, many countries have adopted rejection of entry and travel restrictions on Chinese citizens.In fact, these epidemic prevention measures means that China has also stopped the relevant diplomatic and economic and trade activities in the international community.It was forced to delay.According to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce in February announced the foreign investment data, in January, the direct investment of non -financial overseas companies in China was US $ 8.3 billion, a year -on -year decrease of 9.5%.
The epidemic disrupted the implementation of the Belt and Road, and the short -term impact of the end of the road was great.At a press conference held by the State Council of the State Council on March 5, Ma Zhaoxu, deputy minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, also acknowledged that the epidemic situation had an impact on the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative.To the extent, the epidemic hinders the implementation of the Belt and Road projects depends on when China and countries around the world can effectively control the epidemic.As the epidemic is outbreak worldwide, it is too early to comprehensively evaluate how much the epidemic will hit the Belt and Road.
Although the epidemic has brought huge challenges to the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, it will not shake China's determination to promote this initiative.Some Belt and Road engineering projects will be impacted and the completion date will be forced to postpone, but these projects themselves will not be terminated.In terms of tactics, China will shrink a huge Belt and Road, but it will not shake China ’s ambition to continue to promote this grand initiative.The Belt and Road Initiative is related to the sustainable development of China's economy and industry. It is also whether China can eventually rise into a founding stone of great global powers.
The author is a senior researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore
