Wang Qingmin
Earlier this year, an unpredictable disaster can be stunned on the world, and the crown disease epidemic rays the world.It is not only a public health issue, but also has evolved into political and international relations.The impact of the epidemic on the influence of domestic policies and monitoring policies in various countries is self -evident; its impact on foreign policies and international relations of various countries cannot be ignored.
The impact of crown disease epidemic on the relationship between state is two sides.On the one hand, the epidemic forces countries to take measures and seal the country, close the border or carry out entry and exit control, and the foreign economic, trade and cultural exchanges, and international personnel flow of various countries have greatly reduced or even suspended.Cross -border communication and global raging have allowed countries to unite, strengthen intergovernmental communication and information exchanges, coordinate the flow of resistance resources, and cooperate with the epidemic.
In the past few years before the epidemic occurred, the world's nationalism, localism, and trade protectionism were very arrogant. It has a strong collision with the trend of globalization and regional integration for decades. International relations are on the crossroads where it is towards the crossroads.The coming of the crown disease epidemic will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the changes in the trend of international relations.
After adding the international relationship of the crown disease epidemic, will there be more barriers or more cooperation?
The answer is not so obvious.As mentioned earlier, the impact of the crown disease epidemic on foreign policies and international relations in various countries has obvious two sides.Future international relations depends on the long -term and derivative effects behind these short -term behaviors.During the epidemic, various short -term barriers and cooperation will eventually come to an end. The long -term strategies and epidemics that may be left over to shake the subtravity of domestic and foreign affairs in various countries are lasting.In different areas, the impact of the epidemic is also different, and it is necessary to analyze separately.
First of all, the epidemic has destroyed the industrial chain of global division of labor and cooperation, causing a heavy blow to economic globalization.This epidemic has the most prominent blow to international economic trade and the most difficult to repair in the long run.Since the outbreak of the country, including China and the United States, and the strict control of customs and border, international trade has basically been paralyzed.The epidemic forced to stop labor from various industries from various industries, and the border blockade allowed the multinational economic and trade to handcuffs. These two effects caused international trade to face this year.
Because the industrial chain is distributed worldwide, as long as some of the countries in the industrial chain cannot be alleviated, other countries that are controlled by other epidemics cannot be produced separately.For example, after the Chinese epidemic is controlled, the country's epidemic is still spreading because the United States and Europe are on the upper end of the industrial chain and as the main export target of China, making the foreign trade industry after re -production and re -production of China still weak.
Similarly, even if European and American countries can extinguish the epidemic in the past month or two, the rapid spread of the epidemic in India, Southeast Asia, and Africa will temporarily lose a lot of labor and production resources and sales markets for European and American companies.This impact will not be only a few months, but it will last for several quarters or more, which is enough to become a key variable for shaping the future world economic pattern.
The break of the global industrial chain will cause countries to move the industrial chain back to China and replace exports with domestic demand.Of course, it is impossible for a complete retreat to lock the country, but it will allow countries to end losses and self -protection to weaken foreign trade and reduce participation in international division of labor.This coincides with trade protection and local advocates.
Although the international trade will rebound significantly after the epidemic is over, it is just the compensation effect.Under the priority of international trends in the country, countries will be more inclined to protect themselves rather than realizing the need for international economic and trade cooperation, even if the latter is more in line with the long -term interests of various countries.Therefore, economic globalization will be greatly weakened in the next few years.As for the longer, it is not the scope of the crown disease.
Second, the crown disease epidemic will have a complicated impact on international politics, and it is mainly negative.After this epidemic, although there are many international cooperation and mutual assistance, it is more indifferent and even fraud.After the outbreak of the epidemic outbreak, the governments of the Chinese and American governments have accused each other, Japan and South Korea have not stopped in the epidemic, and the EU countries have protected themselves to abandon the allies hellip; hellip;The barriers were also unprecedented after the Cold War.The disputes between Tan Desai, all sectors of Taiwan and the Director of the WHO, also explained that the connection of conflict created by the lying and neutral international organizations can not escape the epidemic of crown disease.
From the 14 o'clock of the US President Wilson after the end of the World War I, many people in the world have been trying to build a set of international relations based on mutual trust, transparency, and equal.But in fact, from the two times of World War I, the Cold War, and the era when the Cold War was super strong, this beautiful state of international relations was always only in ideals and mind ideas, and had never been realized.This time, the crown disease is like a test strip, and once again tested and displayed the lack of trust, selfishness, and intriguing.
Although this epidemic is not only gap and opposition, it also shines the glory of internationalism. If it has not spread to the world's aid to China, China and Germany have actively supported Italy with serious epidemics, as well as the international medical research team communicated with each other mutual exchanges with each other.Achievements and information have recently shifted from quarrels to more cooperation.However, these limited cooperations are dull and dull under the clouds of suspicion.
After the end of the crown disease, the essence of interests and selfish international relations will not change. It will only hidden many of the cruel places in it and restore the current status of international relations before the outbreak of the crown disease.When another disaster and international crisis come, they will be exposed again.
Third, the crown disease epidemic has further stimulated the revival of racism and exacerbated the gap between different races, culture and nationality.Not only economically, the crown disease epidemic has also become the assistance of populism and localist gods in terms of ideological consciousness.The cross -border spread of the epidemic has made neighbors a more rational reason.
The general discrimination or even violent treatment of Chinese nationals, mainly whites, has revealed the fragility of politics and perfunctory of racial relationships under the correctness of racial relationships, and the root of racial discrimination is deep;How strong the local emotional emotions are; the mainland Chinese people are universal and strong in the black groups in China, which is another embodiment of the strong racism and social Darwinism of Chinese people; some Germans of the German borders recently exposed to the French are exposed.Disclosure of words and deeds also reflects the areas that are highly developed and have been influenced by the long -term and equal and equal and blogging thoughts.
In contrast, the voice against discrimination and call for unity is relatively weak.Perhaps, within all countries, anti -discrimination and multi -ethnic unity have some results, but the voices of mutual understanding between countries/political entities in different ethnic groups are difficult to stand up.In countries with information blocking, the theory of conspiracy theory and ugliness is very popular. For example, a large number of people in mainland China (among which there are many social elites and vested interests), which is a big discrimination of the other party's diary.There are no differences in the minds of hostile foreigners.
All of this naturally will not disappear due to the curb of the crown disease, just as the cruelty in international relations, it is relatively hidden.And racial discrimination and derivatives (including social structural violence and cold violence) will leave long -term painful memories in the hearts of people of all ethnic groups, buried the seeds of hatred, and take root and sprout into more racial contradictions and culture in the future.opposition.
In short, compared to the outbreak of the crown disease, countries will shrink in terms of foreign economic and trade and international political participation after the epidemic.The differences between citizens of different countries or races will also exacerbate a certain extent.
During the crisis, unity and cooperation is limited to some micro -technical fields (such as medical and technology), while the fields of suspending communication are very extensive. After the epidemic, international exchanges are more warm than before the epidemic.The power of anti -globalization, advocating nationalism, and localism of various countries will become more and more powerful, and will actively seek measures to retain various retreats during the epidemic.The impact of the epidemic and the inertia of various policies during the epidemic period will not end abruptly shortly after the end of the epidemic.<<<
People do not know the importance of unity and combination, but in the game of current interests and long -term interests, local interests and overall interests, extraordinaries, short -sightedness, and always subconscious choices.For self -protection and selfish psychology, in order to please the majority and social stability, politicians from various countries have become the principles of acting in all parts of all parts of all countries.
Of course, the crown disease epidemic is just a key variable for economic, international politics, race and culture issues, not the decisive factor of long -term changes.For example, whether it has been globalization or against globalization, it has been teared for many years by different economic policies, political security, social thoughts, and national interests of different countries.No matter how serious the crown disease epidemic is, the impact on international relations is also limited, and there is no lack of limitation to affect time and extent.
However, undoubtedly, in the next five to ten years, all areas of international relations will be affected by this crown disease epidemic to varying degrees, shaping a new international situation in the short -term period.Compared with the outbreak of the epidemic, relatively closed rather than openness, more gap rather than cooperation, it will be the situation in the world for a period of time after the epidemic is over.
The break between the industrial chain, the opposition between the country, and the pain of racial conflicts are not easy to re -connect, bridge, and smooth it.Numerous wars and epidemics in human history are leading to direct trauma, while bringing different degrees of leftover problems, this time crown disease is no exception.Human beings are unfortunate. From ancient times to the present, there are countless disasters; humans are great, and they will always stand up after the disaster and start again.
I hope that after this epidemic, governments and people of various countries can realize that the old students who cooperate with win -win cooperation are indeed Jin Yuliang's words and actively repair the broken chain and trauma in the fields of economy, politics, ideological consciousness, culture and ethnic groups, so that the world will return to normalGo towards freshmen.
The author is the writer of China Strategic Analysis Magazine
International Political Researcher
Numerous wars and epidemics in human history are leading to direct trauma, while bringing different degrees of leftover problems, this time crown disease is no exception.Human beings are unfortunate. From ancient times to the present, there are countless disasters; humans are great, and they will always stand up after the disaster and start again.
