The coronary virus epidemic spreads in countries around the world. No one knows how big it will be on the economy of various countries, but more and more verification is that the impact of the epidemic on the world economy is far more than the Great Depression in the 1930s.
In 1997, the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis in 2008 were only local financial and economic crises. However, this crisis is comprehensive and is a syndrome of the economic crisis, social crisis, political governance crisis and international order crisis.If the epidemic cannot be effectively controlled, the crisis in various countries deepen and society's panic, which will lead to a dramatic increase in war risks.Historically, plague and war have always been a pair of twin brothers.
Because of this, countries, especially Western countries, have introduced huge economic assistance plans.In general, the rescue plan of Western capitalist countries shows a strong socialist tendency.In fact, the more typical capitalist countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom, the more socialist nature is.European countries such as Germany and France have already been very high in socialist components.
The United States is the most typical.If the US economy collapses, who will be responsible?This is a question of discussions in the United States some time ago.In order to prevent the US economy and enterprises at all levels, workers, and ordinary families, it will not fall into the desperation of large -scale bankruptcy under the threat of crown disease.With the rise of the epidemic, the rejuvenation budget also expanded from the original $ 800 billion to $ 2 trillion.
Although the Democratic Party and the Republican Party have controversy in this rescue plan, this is a very effective debate.The Democratic Party's questioning of the Republican budget is mainly in black box operations and fisheries consortia.In the 2008 financial tsunami, the US government introduced the rescue plan, resulting in the consortium liabilities to pay for the whole people.Responsible for the long -term consequences of government financial tightening.
Therefore, in order to avoid the emergence of unsalooing and poor, the Democratic Party requires the addition of restrictions in the bill, including large enterprises applying for bailout, must not repurchase equity, must strictly restrict executive salary, and set the threshold for the censorship of bailout budgets.With the flow of bailout gold released by the Ministry of Finance, avoiding the black box bailout once again detonated the people's distrust and grievances about the government.The rescue plan was finally approved in Congress.Trump, which has condemned the United States in the direction of socialism, signed this bill, including providing a $ 1,200 check to everyone outside the United States.
What kind of rescue plan in China
What about China's situation?There is no doubt that the epidemic has a blow to the Chinese economy.The village, the district, the city, the province, and the off -voyage will have a huge negative effect on the economy. However, the Chinese leadership puts the lives of the people first, and makes a decision to seal the city and break the air.
Disputes that are important like the United States or an important dispute will not appear in China.Fengcheng is regarded as extreme measures by the West, which is not only adopted in Wuhan (Hubei), but also extended to other provinces in China.Although the epidemic was quickly controlled, the economy of the entire country in the first quarter of the country basically disappeared.
It turned out that after people thought that the epidemic was controlled, the local area would resume work as soon as possible, and the economy would have a strong rebound, but now it seems that the situation is not optimistic.Many epidemic factors continue to deeply affect economic activities.
First, the epidemic is controlled, but this does not mean that the epidemic disappears.What people are worried about the second wave of epidemic will happen.The Spanish flu in 1918 was controlled by three laps around the world.Before being able to invent and produce vaccines, this uncertainty will always wander in society.
Second, the epidemic control is controlled, but people's psychological recovery takes a long time. It seems unrealistic to enter the normal working state immediately.
Third, even if domestic can be resumed, the demand from Europe and the United States has greatly reduced or even stops.As a manufacturing base, China, especially in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, many companies are assembly or processing enterprises. They have not come to orders from Europe and the United States, and it is difficult for enterprises to re -production and production.Many companies do not go down and postpone holidays indefinitely.
At the time of the global financial crisis in 2008, although China itself was not crisis, the Chinese government decisively launched a 4 trillion yuan rescue plan, which played an effective defense role in the extension of the prevention crisis to China.
This crisis is so profound, does the Chinese government need a larger and more effective economic rescue plan?At least until now, the Chinese government has not introduced such a plan.This may be due to the lessons of history.The last 4 trillion yuan rescue plan, although it prevented the economic crisis from extending to China, has also produced a huge negative effect, that is, the deterioration of the internal industrial structure.4 trillion entered a state -owned enterprise and did not enter the private sector, which led to the retreat of the country and the people.State -owned enterprises are already strong, and they are now stronger.
Furthermore, many state -owned enterprises have begun to enter the realm of real estate, and together with the private sector pushed China's real estate to the highest peak in history, China's house prices have never been reduced.These problems have not yet digested.This time the government is conservative or prudent.
But the problem may not be so simple.The Chinese government's determination to save the economy may be stronger than any government. At the same time, as the second largest economy, China today is more capable to save the economy.The problem is that there is no shortage of money in China. What is missing is how to use money.
Regardless of the discussion of economic policies from the government and mainstream scholars, the path adopted by China is just the opposite of the West, that is, the western travel of the West as a capitalist country is the socialist route; and China as a socialist country is a market route.In China's rescue economic plan, people can hardly see the components of socialism, but the amount of capital (or market weight) is publicized.
This may be related to the long -lasting trend of new liberalism since the 1980s.Neo -liberalism has contributed in the process of transformation from the planned economy to the market economy in China in the early days, but it is also because it has become ingrained and affects people's thinking and decision -making behavior.In China, the most obvious is DGPism, that is, the economy itself has become an independent unit, and the significance of all economic activities is GDP.GDPism is directly manifested in today's economic policy controversy, mainly in three aspects.
First, do you want to send money directly to the people?
Western capitalist countries directly send money to the people. Why can't China be?At least China is still a socialist system, and there are sounds of money, but it is very quiet that people can't hear it.Mainstream economists do not advocate money, but they advocate consumer coupons.Because the mainstream considers GDP, it is to stimulate consumption, activate transactions, and generate GDP through consumer coupons.
The difference between money and consumer vouchers is that the deadline for money is not used, while consumer coupons are available.Consumer vouchers must be consumed in a limited time, otherwise they will expire, and the money is different. After the people get money, they can deposit into the bank without spending.Because fear is not consumed by the people, and the GDP cannot be transformed, consumer coupons are advocated.
This is the logic of capital, not the logic of society.Many people admit that the economy may no longer be the GDP economy today, but the economy or survival economy.Considering that most of Chinese society is still the poor, and the heaviest affected by the epidemic is also the bottom of the society, the reason for direct money is even more sufficient.Those companies that are very loud in the public opinion market in China are actually capable of living.Enterprises, families, and individuals who have the ability to survive are gone.
It may not be possible to generate GDP immediately, but it can play a positive role in social stability.The people at the bottom of the society will put a little money at home, and they will not worry about whether there will be food tomorrow and saving money, which will help to produce a sense of stability.If 40%of the bottom of society is stable, there will be no problems in the overall society.As long as society is stable, development is just fast and slow.But if you issue a consumer voucher, you may generate GDP, but it is more likely to cause social panic due to mandatory consumption.Publishing consumer coupons without paying money, or if you do n’t know about the bottom of the Chinese society, or it is GDPism.
Second, can the freedom of production factor flow to promote GDP growth?
The freedom of production factor flowing to promote economic growth is the basic principle of economics, and no one will doubt it.But there are still several important questions here to answer.First of all, in the long run, the flow of element flow has no problem to promote economic growth, but it still cannot save near the fire.Society needs to be saved, and the flow of factors cannot save society.Secondly, what is more important?People don't have a lot of confidence in this, because in the past few crises, they saved the economy by sacrificing the society.
The Asian financial crisis in 1998 promoted the growth of GDP through the industrialization of education; the global economic crisis in 2008 caused real estate to become a wealthy industry.Education and real estate, coupled with the industrialization of the previous medical field, led to the situation of Chinese society today.Strictly speaking, these are all social fields, not in the economic field, and need a strong investment in the country.However, in China, not only does it have no strong investment in the country, but it has industrialized. Therefore, there is no institutional foundation in society, and social stability will have no foundation.
If you want to promote economic growth through factor flow, which social department will you sacrifice this time?People think of the land in rural areas.For hundreds of millions of farmers, land is their basic guarantee.The land in rural areas has always been a potential wealth that parties (especially capital and local governments) are staring at.Over the years, people have discussed the transfer of homesteads, which are mainly to balance the balance of development in rural areas and cities.For a long time in the countryside, there have been only flowing out and not flowing in.
As soon as the peasants were rich, they went to the city to buy houses and sent them to the city to school.The majority of rural areas have limited investment in the country, and sustainable development has become a big problem.In addition, after many farmers enter the city, the homesteads are bullshit and no one manages it.Under such circumstances, allowing urban residents to build houses and live in rural areas, and introduce the necessary service industries on the basis of this, is also an effective way to balance urban and rural development.However, the elements discussed this time are not such a concept, but a large -scale land flow, and the land rights controlled by the original central government must be placed to the provincial government.
Historically, the result of this policy is predictable.Local officials are only interested in the GDP that can be produced by the land, not the population on the land.Once farmers lose their land, or once the country loses a lot of cultivated land, it will cause an unpreity ending.In recent years, the hukou system has been loosened, but for farmers entering the city, the hukou is just a piece of paper, which is meaningless.
The core issue of urban hukou is the social system, but no one cares about this aspect.As a result of the radical change of the land system, the underlying problem will soon move from rural areas to cities. In cities without enough social security, the political energy that such grass -roots problems can generate do not know how many times stronger than rural areas.
Third, can new infrastructure save the economy?
New infrastructure has recently become popular.If the old infrastructure is investing in high -speed rail, ports, airports, highways and other projects, the new infrastructure is that investment is technical such as 5G, especially people call it A (AI, artificial intelligence), B (block chain, blockchain), C (Computing Cloud, Cloud Computing) and D (Big Data, Big Data).According to reports, the Central Government will have 3.5 trillion yuan in the next few years, and 13 provinces and cities will have 34 trillion yuan to invest in new infrastructure.
The importance of these technologies to the future economy is beyond doubt.But first, can investment in these aspects support the growth of the second largest economic volume?Some observers have proposed that new infrastructure cannot reach the goals preset by GDPist, so they advocate the recovery of old infrastructure and new infrastructure.It should also be pointed out that in addition to a few places, the old infrastructure has been fully or even excessive.Second, if you emphasize the role of new infrastructure, it will lead to technical utopia.
Which country does not want technological progress?But technological progress can be obtained, no one will know when new technology will appear.Sometimes a huge amount of investment does not necessarily lead to technological innovation.Third, because of the contribution of technological investment in economic growth, it can only be considered from a long -term perspective, and it cannot exaggerate its role in the economic crisis caused by the rescue.
In fact, the Chinese economy has reached this stage, and objectively requires people to surpass the old GDPism, and need a new thinking and thinking.This new thinking can be called soft infrastructure. It is intended to provide various public services through the construction of social systems, defend the society, and get bigger and stronger in the bottom of poverty alleviation.And economic growth.If the content of the new infrastructure is placed in the structure of soft foundation, it will be even more clear about the meaning of economy and society.
Economy belongs to society, society is destroyed, and the highest -speed economic growth will become meaningless.The economic development under GDPist often inverts the end of this, which destroys the society. Not only will it increase unsustainable, but it will also cause huge social crisis.
(The author is a professor at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore)
The article only represents personal point of view
