After the 2019 coronary virus has brought a heavy damage to the United States, Trump's domestic support rates have not increased.What puzzled many people was that, although there was a lot of dissatisfaction and criticism that the Trump administration had poor response to the Trump administration in the United States, why did the people's support for him rose to a new height?
After the international crisis comes, the phenomenon of rapid rise in domestic leaders' support rates in the short term is no stranger to political science and communication scholars.They call this phenomenon the Rally Round the Flag Effect, which means that in the face of major countries and national crisis involving major countries and national crisis, national leaders' support in China usually increases rapidly.
The public opinion survey released by the Gallop company shows that Trump's support in American adults reached 49%, and his support rate was 44%before the outbreak of the US epidemic.
In late January and early February this year, Trump also received 49%support during the impeachment trial of the Senate, which is also the highest support rate he has received since his election president.
With the relying on the flag effect, how long can President Trump be supported? Can he win this year's presidential election again?
Democratic political adviser James Middot; James Carville predicts that Trump is likely to be unable to re -election because of his poor performance of domestic coronary epidemic.He believes that in the U.S. election held in November, Democratic candidate Biden will be very easy to defeat Trump and win an overwhelming election victory.
Kavier said on television that President Trump performed very badly in responding to the epidemic. He was not worried that the Democratic Party was at a disadvantage in the presidential campaign.According to the current development trend, Democratic candidates will win in the November presidential election, because American voters will not vote for Trump and let him do it for four years.
Kavier believes that even if there is an influence of the convergence effect, Trump's support rate is still very low compared with his former US president.
Kavir analyzed that when the United States faced a major crisis, the support rate of the former president was higher than Trump.In 1979, President Carter's support in the Iranian hostage crisis was 67%; in 2001, President Bush's support rate after 91 terrorist attacks reached 90%of the record;The support rate is also as high as 87%.
At present, the domestic Prime Minister's domestic support rate exceeds 70%.
Kavir said he dares to bet that at least 30 governors in the United States currently have more than 70%.He went on to say that Trump's support rate was 46.1%when he was elected in 2016. From being elected to now, Trump's basic support disk is not as good as before. Most supporters have shaken, and his polls have deteriorated.
Former Republican National Committee chairman Michel Middot; Michael Steele also believes that Trump's victory in the presidential election has increased, and many of the original supporters may not vote for him this year.He said that the virus is from the Democratic Party or the Republican Party regardless of whether you are in Hongzhou or Lanzhou, nor the state -supported presidential candidate.He believes that the impact of the development of the epidemic on the presidential election will gradually appear recently, and the negative impact on Trump will be more.
Judging from the historical experience of the US presidential election, the four pillars of Trump's successful re -election have begun to collapse.
First, from a historical point of view, the current president who seek re -election must keep the domestic economy strong.The economic development prospects of the US economy until November were worrying, and it was impossible to increase strong growth.The current president who lost points on economic issues has almost no possibility of victory.
Second, the Trump's campaign team has been starting around attacking the Democratic candidate Bernie Middot; Sanders with socialist characteristics campaign program. As Sanders retired, the Trump team lost the attack target.The influence of voters is reduced.
Third, Trump's first election of presidential campaign slogans aimed at eliminating the swamps of the Great Government.Now that he fights the epidemic, he wants Americans to trust his big government means. The anti -epidemic and recovery economy are the most effective, thereby making division in the basic disk that supports him.Many voters who are convinced that the big government is not suitable for the United States, and may no longer vote for Trump.
Fourth, a considerable person in American voters stated that the only purpose of their voting was that Trump could not continue to be re -elected.From the history of the United States election, it is not terrible that a candidate cannot get some voters' support, but if more voters have ignored the advantages and disadvantages of Trump's candidates when they vote, they focus on frustrating Trump's re -election dreamThis is what any candidate is unwilling to see, because it brings a doomed black cloud.
(The author is an associate professor at the School of Communication, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania)
