[Editor's note] Sociologist Ding Xueliang obtained a doctorate in Harvard University in 1992 and worked at Harvard University, Australian National University and the University of Hong Kong.In 2003, he experienced SARS in Hong Kong and later studied the comparative research of the three places on the three sides of the strait.During the new crown epidemic, he was engaged in globalization and supply chain research in Shenzhen.Recently, he was interviewed by the FT Chinese website to share his opinions on the globalization pattern, supply chain reorganization, and possible countries that may occur after the epidemic.The following is the recording of the interview after finishing.
FT Chinese website: Do you think this epidemic will end the globalization process?
Ding Xueliang: It cannot be said that globalization is about to end.The globalization process after the Cold War has always been unstable, and has experienced two major impacts.
The first wave of impact was caused by the migration of labor -intensive industries in developed countries.In the first few years of the early 21st century, this migration has caused resistance and rebound in society of developed countries, but it has not yet risen to the political and diplomatic levels of these countries.I remember when I attended an international academic seminar in 03-04, I often discussed the problem of major industrial transfer. Once Harvard's former principal, economist, and long-term Chinese observer Lawrence Bull; Larry Summers warned China that China, China warned China thatPay attention to the serious response to this wave of globalization in the most developed countries.I remember that I was surprised at the time. Isn't globalization benefiting everyone?Isn't cheap products curbing inflation in developed countries?Samers said that this is only seen from your perspective. A large number of middle class in developed economies has lost work, and social dissatisfaction will gradually begin to affect national decision -making.This left a deep impression on me, and the recent Sino -US trade war has proven his warning.
The second wave of shocks was 07-08. Because of the global operation of capital, it led to a large number of foams and bubble ruptures that brought a global financial economic crisis.
The new crown epidemic is the latest impact on globalization. It not only affects the larger side, but also rolled most of the world's economies. It also impacted all aspects of globalization.
However, the globalization process will not end.First of all, the epidemic is always seasonal and will not continue for years. Second, the most developed countries are looking for vaccines, and currently the most tense stage in crisis.After the epidemic passes, whether it is raw materials, capital, products, people and concepts, or people will return to the connection across the border.
However, compared with the lowest cost before the epidemic, after the epidemic, all cross -border connections will consider a new variable, is it reliable in the major crisis in the major crisis?This is not only a matter of cost, but also many factors, including the country where the production base is located, will be disturbed by the next infectious disease?Is this country's information reliable?What is the political relationship with your country in politics?
For example, many American researchers and politics now claim that in the epidemic, some of the Chinese government has controlled the production and export of some medical supplies, and China is the world's largest and even unique producer in the world for many medical products and medicines.For example, 80%of the American selling medicines are produced in China, and China and even the only producer of some raw medicines.In the past, such pure economic problems will now be considered at the national strategic level to consider.For example, there are no technical masks, which are now regarded as strategic supplies, and countries may relocate the production capacity of the mask from China to their country.
In the past, the United States guarded China, which was mainly concentrated in the field of cutting -edge weapons; the Sino -US trade war made civilian high -tech inside; and this epidemic will affect the layout of the manufacturing industry that was originally considered to be the middle and lower end in China.EssenceThe most direct impact of this epidemic is here.
It seems that in normal conditions, you don't think it is important to freshwater, but once it falls into the desert, it is different.Now, it seems that two -thirds of the world's people have been thrown into the desert, and freshwater has become extremely scarce.
FT Chinese website: Many observers believe that China has built the world's most complete manufacturing supply chain and it is difficult to move away.Do you need to adjust this view now?
Ding Xueliang: During the decades of reform and opening up, China has established the most complete manufacturing supply chain although it is not the most cutting -edge, but it is indeed the most complete manufacturing supply chain.But there is always a demand problem?Before the Sino -US trade war was hot, China had a serious problem of overcapacity. The Chinese government has taken many measures, including the Belt and Road Initiative, and wants to transfer some of the production capacity because developed economies do not need these things.After the epidemic, in addition to the problem that the supply chain that just mentioned, it may only be greatly reduced to orders for China. What is the complete supply chain?It seems that the taxi company said that I have two hundred cars, all of which are good cars, but there are no people on the street, what is the use of cars?
FT Chinese website: In 2003, you experienced SARS in Hong Kong, and this time you observe the response to the three places on both sides of the strait in Shenzhen.How do you compare these two epidemics?
Ding Xueliang: If SARS was used as the most important reference in 2003, the largest progress in China in 17 years is to learn from the American disease control and prevention system (CDC), and a infectious disease notification mechanism has been established.However, China's CDC cannot operate independently and cannot publish information to the public independently. In my opinion, the biggest lesson of this epidemic.
Which part of Wuhan is there this time?In my opinion, the Chinese CDC system is likely to be notified up, because as long as the virus is proved in the laboratory, the virus can be passed on. According to the Chinese government's regulations, it must be notified to the highest level of CDC in Beijing within four hours.Even if this channel is not so smooth, inside the CDC system, experts can talk privately.However, CDC cannot interfere with the final decision -making of the administrative agency, nor can it be summoned by the media, and must be released through the administrative department.
However, assuming that the situation in Wuhan first occurred in MDASH; mdash; Hong Kong was particularly alert to mdash; mdash because of the severe SARS severe disaster area; then it is very likely that several infectious disease experts in Hong Kong will meet intensive meetings at intensive meetings.Discuss, list preventive measures, and notify the government's highest level at the first time.If the government agrees with the opinions of experts, it will immediately enter administrative decisions and implementation; even if the government believes that the epidemic is not so serious, does not agree with the opinions of experts, and there is no power to prohibit experts from seeing the media and prohibiting them from telling students and colleagues.In this way, the media will definitely follow up, and the public will soon know the truth.
The information inside the infectious disease system is also very important.For example, when SARS broke out in 2003, Hong Kong did not get information as soon as possible, which made them know that they could not rely entirely on official channels. Many times they rely on colleagues to get information from colleagues in mainland China.Therefore, infectious disease experts in Hong Kong learned that the Wuhan epidemic at the end of December last year also notified the Hong Kong government.Look at Taiwan again.Taiwan did badly when fighting SARS, and then learned a profound lesson.And Taiwan is not a member of the World Health Organization (WHO). He cannot participate in formal meetings. He cannot get the news of the official channel transmission. It can only rely on the exchanges with the mainland.In late December, after receiving the news from the mainland counterparts in the medical community in Taiwan, it was already highly vigilant, and it was not so selfish. It also returned the information to mainland officials, because there were many Taiwanese businessmen on the mainland.The psychology, almost at the same time, also informed WHOMDASH; mdash; it could not go to WHO to meet, but it can contact WHORecord.However, WHO did not give feedback after receiving the Taiwan report.
Therefore, for China, even if we have the best virus laboratory and CDC, but if this professional system cannot operate independently, MDASH; mdash; internal conclusions cannot play the maximum role to the public.At the international levelAfter the epidemic, WHO's reform must be the focus.
FT Chinese website: Nowadays, Chinese and foreign media have comparison of epidemic prevention operations in various countries. Many people think that the way China is the best. What do you think?
Ding Xueliang: I don't agree.Even in a neutral stand, we can only say that some of the methods adopted by mainland China are effective and some are not so effective.In the case of transparent information, even if given national conditions, mainland China can do much better.
For example, if in December last year, the warning of the medical system could be released in time, and then quickly tested the high -risk groups in Wuhan, such as the people around the seafood market, and the diagnosis was even suspected.It is sent to the place where the local people are rare, such as Zhangjiajie, where the simple house is built and isolation for treatment. Then before New Year's Day, it is about thousands of people, and it is controlled.And the infected person continued to stay in a large city like Wuhan in Wuhan, plus the information was opaque, and the medical extrusion appeared, and finally developed into this way.So I can't accept China's anti -epidemic method is the only best.
FT Chinese website: Public opinion tears very hard at this point.
Ding Xueliang: I don't think what we see on the Internet represent the real public opinion, because the most critical information has not been on the desktop.If you put the information on the desktop, I believe most of the rational people will be consistent with opinions, and will not become too emotional in these things.For example, Hubei and Wuhan people are now discriminated against in many places. Even Jiujiang and Wuhan have been fighting, but now I am in Shenzhen, Shenzhen is a young and open immigrant city. Many people have learned foreign languages and have received higher education.Citizens in Shenzhen know that once Hubei let go, 400,000 Hubei people will come to Shenzhen to work, but the Shenzhen people will not have much separation at this point. Shenzhen is making a lot of preparations and welcome people from Hubei.
From the perspective of social sciences, public opinion reflects the opinion and judgment of Informed Public, and the Informed Public refers to the maximum information that the public can get at the moment of information.Only these two conditions are met, the public opinion and judgment are the real public opinion.
FT Chinese website: Recently, some social groups have appeared in foreign media, such as lawyers' associations, and reports to China.Do you notice?
Ding Xueliang: I noticed that some social groups, religious groups, enterprises, and think tanks in some countries are promoting accountability to China, but these actions have not yet entered the government level of these countries.It is impossible to predict whether the foreign government will take action on China. If it takes action, it depends on whether the country is a federal system or a central government, and the laws of the law of this country for compensation for civil disputes. The different national regulations aredifferent.
Take the United States as an example.Under the legal and political system in the United States, even if the federal or state government does not launch any action, it is impossible to prohibit social organizations and individuals from doing this.Sexuality will greatly encourage other organizations to adopt the same way.
If such lawsuits occur, even if the US court cannot force the defendant to appear in the United States, once it makes a ruling that is conducive to the prosecution, if the defendant does not attend, it will lose by default.US courts can find institutions or enterprises related to the prosecution, such as state -owned enterprises with assets in the United States, and then enter the second step of appeal session, and even freeze the assets of these corporate institutions.The United States had actually done this to Russia, Cuba and Venezuela.
U.S. law also allows collective lawsuits. As long as one person comes to a lawsuit, all other potential damaged people can be included in the indictment. Even if these people do not know, the compensation is given to all prosecutors.There will be a law firm willing to do this, because such lawsuits have greatly improved their reputation.It can be said that this kind of lawsuit is not to win, but their symbolic meaning.
(Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view. Edit mail box [email protected])
