Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
From oil to copper to coal, the huge commodity market in mainland China is sending signals simultaneously, showing that this economy that is the first to suffer from the impact of the new crown pneumonia is getting closer to normal.
According to Bloomberg's economic research, the recent re -work rate of mainland China has reached 90 ~ 95%, including refining capacity from 12 million barrels per day in March to 13 million barrels, which is close to the average daily 13.4 million barrels last year.; In terms of power, the daily coal -fired consumption of power plants in coastal areas has doubled in February.In addition, there are also signs of recovery in the copper market. Because copper is widely used in the fields of construction and transmission, it is a sensitive indicator reflecting the economy. The warehouse inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has dropped from a record -free level for three weeks.
In addition, Taiwan's exports in March were slightly decreased by 0.6%compared with the same period last year, which was better than expected.Among them, the decline in sales of the United States and the return of land and Hong Kong (3.4%annually); March from Lu and Hong Kong imports also reached a single month high in the past years. The main reason is that mainland production and logistics gradually resume order.
Comprehensive signs of all aspects may be temporarily judged on the future trend of China's economy: First, the future economic trend is V or U. It is difficult to judge at present, but the chance of L -shaped seems to be small.In other words, although the growth rate of the first quarter will decline significantly, the decline will soon be pulled out; the second quarter is compared with the same period last year, the growth may not be ideal, but there is no suspense in the turnaround.
Second, it can basically exclude the danger of explosive financial turmoil.Due to the relaxation of monetary discipline and strict financial supervision, there are many hidden dangers in the financial situation of mainland China. This new crown epidemic has a sudden emergence.At present, the real economy has begun to stabilize, which is conducive to soothing the pressure of explosive financial crisis.
Third, rapid resumption also helps ease the employment situation.If the epidemic continues or the effect of resumption of work is not good, it will be tremendous to the employment market, especially in the summer, more than 8 million universities will be put into the workplace, and the employment situation is unimaginable.Although the current pressure is reduced, the overall situation is still difficult to be optimistic. It depends on major recovery projects including new infrastructure including AI, 5G, and big data to actively respond.
Fourth, the global epidemic is still continuing and the economic prospects are dim. China may once again become the main hope of the global economy, but it is different from the situation after the 2008 financial tsunami. First, China is now the world's second largest economy (At that time, it was the third); the second, the economic disaster caused by the global epidemic was more wider than the financial tsunami, stronger impact, and greater destructive power.Therefore, as Ji Xinji said, the new crowns will always change the world order, and China may play a more important role and have a more important position.
The economic situation in mainland China can appear cautious and optimistic, and there can be four interpretations: First, in the first stage of the epidemic, the government's proclaimed city sealing roads have caused the supply chain to be fully broken, but it is not a long time to study and judge the judgment for a long time.Under the preliminary control of the epidemic, it was decided to actively resume work and re -production, so as to keep the vitality before the company couldn't lift it.
Secondly, the mainland decision -making authorities have made a bright and clear decision -making, in place, and the market confidence has recovered quickly.Furthermore, China's economic structure has changed from external demand -oriented to domestic demand -oriented, and its foreign dependence is less than the global economy's dependence on China.Finally, China began to promote new infrastructure projects that have been ready in a timely manner.
The impact of the new crown epidemic on the world is not only an epoch -making, but also disruptive. One of the subversion is manifested in the response ability of China and Western countries.The new crown epidemic was suddenly the first, and China was the first to be attacked. At the beginning of the attack, the situation was unknown. It obviously made mistakes, but it was corrected until a long time, and for at least one month for other countries.
Unfortunately, western countries have been loosened, watching the fire from the shore, and falling into the stones. After the anti -wisdom, in response, the proceedings and losses, and the deserted cavity, China has played from a raid battle to the position and counterattack battle.The earliest sealing city, square hospitals and masks that were ridiculed by Western countries used to have become countermeasures for countries.The concept of epidemic prevention is now called advanced deployment. Leaving aside prejudice and prejudice, mainland China takes the lead in deployment to deploy. It is no wonder that it is most likely that the most likely to recover may also be mainland China.
