01 Viewpoint
After nine -hour marathon video conference on Thursday (9th), the Organization of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) finally stabilized international oil prices and reached a production reduction agreement.OPEC +'s leader MDASH; MDASH; Saudi Arabia and Russia under the influence of new crown pneumonia, the pressure of public fiscal has gradually increased, it is difficult to maintain the cost of cutting the price by the injured person for a long time.It reflects that the participating countries have their own calculations, and the influence of the oil group is worse than before.
According to OPEC's news, production reduction and production will be divided into three stages.The organization will reduce the production of 9.7 million barrels of oil from May 1st, which is equivalent to 10 % of the global supply, for two months; from July 1st to the end of this year, the daily production will be reduced by 7.7 million barrels; and the third stage will be reduced; and the third stage will beStarting from 2021, 580 barrels of oil are reduced per day until April 2022.Although it was less than market expectations, the oil price war started Saudi Arabia and Russia last month.
Mexico is not full of production
However, there are other contradictions in the oil -producing countries, which can be seen in the departure of Mexican representatives.During the video conference on the oil group, Mexican representatives were higher than expected because of dissatisfaction. They had left the scene and protested.Change the posture to accept production reduction requirements.According to Lopez pointed out that because Washington agrees to reduce production of 250,000 barrels of oil daily, it not only offsets the OPEC+partial production reduction requirements, but also allows Mexico to maintain the goal of minimizing 100,000 barrels per day.
After the news of the agreement came out, the international oil prices were rising first and then returning, reflecting the market's influence and execution of OPEC+.In terms of external factors, although the oil group is still monopolizing the pricing of the global oil market at present, its market share has gradually fallen from a peak of more than 50%in the 1970s to 42%in 2018.At the same time, due to the 20 major oil -producing nations including Canada, China, and Norway, many countries have not added members of the oil group, which has limited the breadth of production reduction agreements.Instead, for countries that rely on oil sales such as Brazil and Kazakhstan, such as Brazil and Kazakhstan, the OPEC+production reduction agreement is also an opportunity to secretly increase production and seize the market.
OPEC mechanism is limited
Furthermore, the internal system of OPEC has also brought a lot of challenges to implement production reduction.First of all, the oil group has not developed a valid system to force the implementation of oil production agreement without relevant punishment mechanisms. It regulates the behavior of participating countries.Fill in the cause of fiscal revenue.Secondly, even though there are 13 member states on the surface of the oil group, because Saudi Arabia has the advantage in terms of production capacity and cost, the decision to increase production and production reduction agreement is actually in the hands of Liad, not other members of OPEC.Can jointly affect Saudi Arabia's decision.The problem is that because there are only five member states in the oil group, and the rest are in Africa and South America, the differences in the economic cycle of various places also make it difficult for countries to maintain a unified oil production policy for a long time.
In the end, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia also also added unknown to the effectiveness of the production reduction agreement.Although OPEC's coordination of Russia, the addition of the two additional market share may increase the effectiveness of the production reduction agreement, but because sand and Russia are not affiliated with international affairs, but only cooperate or interact with individual issues or intensive interactions.Therefore, it is the decision of simultaneously reduced production in the two countries. At best, it is only the representative of short -term cooperation, that is, the two countries must urgently solve the fruit of public fiscal pressure under the epidemic.However, because the interests of the Middle East of the two countries are not completely consistent, such as Russia must rely on Iran as an intermediary to maintain Syria's political stability, and Saudi Arabia regards Iran as the number one enemy and try to weaken its forces.Once the political situation in the Middle East has changed, with the permission of fiscal pressure, its relationship will also be converted from cooperation to competition, which will reverse the mutual trust established by the two countries in the oil group.ticket.
